Thursday, August 4, 2011

The Story Of Five ODM Rebels Without A Cause



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BACK to square one. That’s where Eldoret North MP William Ruto, Dujis MP Aden Duale, Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny, Belgut MP Charles Keter and Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto are today. They are in a real quandary. Legally and politically, the five ODM rebels are between a rock and a hard place. There’s no wiggle room.
The constitutional application by ODM members Mpuri Aburi and Kepher Odongo to have the five deemed to have resigned from ODM and to have forfeited their parliamentary seats has sent the five rebels-without-a-cause into a tailspin. The prospect of by-elections is sending icy chills down their spines.
The two Rutos and Keter are blowing hot air, pretending to be ready for anything. But Duale and Kutuny have started crumbling. These two dare not go there.
The cracks in the team were inevitable. None of them is as strong as the political wind they are blowing. All five opposed the new Constitution during the referendum and Kutuny and Duale suffered devastating losses in their respective constituencies, which have become increasingly hostile. Word on the ground indicates that both would lose badly if by-elections were held today. Duale has been lamely protesting that he never left ODM.
Even William Ruto is not that safe, and he knows it. The margin between the ‘no’ and ‘yes’ votes in Eldoret North was negligible. There is a real risk Ruto might lose in a by-election. That’s causing him sleepless nights.
Eldoret North is cosmopolitan. Nearly half the residents there are Luhya and Luo, while the other half are Kalenjin. Although about two-thirds of the Kalenjin voters support Ruto, a significant number oppose him. The constituency is still solidly ODM. Ruto’s political survival isn’t guaranteed. He might be living in la-la land.
Keter and Isaac are no better off. Their political fortunes are 50-50. They have formidable opponents waiting to cash in on the fallout. Campaigns have begun in earnest in both constituencies.
For William Ruto, losing one of his rebels would be humiliating. Losing two or more would be an unmitigated disaster. Moreover, ODM would still remain the largest party even if Ruto and all his rebels were successful.
By persistently opposing ODM policies in and outside parliament, openly ganging up with opponents of the party, refusing to pay their subscription fees and organising rallies to hurl abuse at the party and its leadership, the five have shown their ‘presence’ in ODM to be more of a weakness than a strength.
Most of them have publicly stated they have ‘left’ ODM for UDM, and Ruto has declared on numerous occasions that he has taken over the UDM leadership. Unfortunately for him, a court has declared otherwise and stopped the ‘national recruitment’ exercise Ruto had announced.
For Ruto and his gang, UDM might be a chimera. Already, ODM has taken all the seats in the Baringo county council elections, something that was given little prominence in the media but which was highly significant. Ultimately, this fight promises to be a bruising one for all five rebels.
I’m sure Ruto never expected anyone to take him to court for his bad behaviour and numerous breaches to the Political Parties Act. That’s what impunity does: it makes one feel invincible. If one accumulates a staggering Sh35 billion or so in less than 20 years without gainful employment and gets unfettered access to State House, perhaps anyone could develop Ruto’s chutzpah.
Following the filing of the application, Ruto initially cried ‘dictatorship’ and claimed that he was being ‘pushed out’ – before contradicting himself by stating that he had left ODM a long time ago and was ready for by-elections. After a few days, Ruto asserted that he would not ‘defend’ himself against the application or send lawyers to appear for him in court.
The dilemma for Ruto is this: if he opposes the application, he must not just declare that he remains loyal to ODM and Raila Odinga but he would then be required to start behaving as such. That would undermine all those vitriolic public utterances that have characterised and defined his political career.
And without a bogeyman, Ruto’s politics would be exposed and deflated. There’s nothing else there. His incendiary rhetoric, with no content, no substance, and no direction, would be exposed for what it is.
He would also have to dissociate himself from the KKK, G7 or whatever other convenient political amalgams he has dreamed up. He would have to face the repercussions of lying to his ‘constituents’ that he had genuine disagreements with Raila and ODM, and that he was serious about running for president in 2012. Can he risk this?
The alternative for Ruto is to file a response stating that he agrees with the litigants. There would be no hearing if he did this. The court would issue an order on consent of all the parties and by-elections would follow a few months later. That is the only logical and decent outcome.
And then it really would be back to square one for Ruto. So far, he has ridden to parliament and prominence on ODM and Raila Odinga’s coattails. Now he is out of ODM but he has no party he can call home. UDM and PNU have their owners. So does Kanu. ODM-K is being rebranded for Kalonzo Musyoka. As we speed towards the next general election, Ruto is party-less.
Perhaps the only option now is for him to form and develop his own party from the ground up. Only then, perhaps, will he start appreciating exactly what it takes to build a formidable political machine. Kenyans are watching!
The writer is the Prime Minister’s advisor on coalition affairs. The views expressed here are his own.

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