Prime Minister Raila Odinga (left) and Eldoret North MP William Ruto. Photos/FILE
By JULIUS SIGEI jsigei@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Friday, August 19 2011 at 22:30
Posted Friday, August 19 2011 at 22:30
The much-talked-about Cabinet reshuffle that would have given Prime Minister Raila Odinga an opportunity to purge party rebels failed to materialise this week.
The rebel MPs are led by Mr Odinga’s erstwhile ally-now-turned-foe, suspended Higher Education minister and Eldoret North MP William Ruto.
Though the two no longer see eye to eye they, like Siamese twins, are joined at the hip by circumstances. (Read: Kibaki, Raila to shuffle Cabinet and name AG)
This means their incessant feuding, which has taken a toll on their political careers, will continue unabated.
Expected to get the axe in the reshuffle were Mr Ruto, suspended Industrialisation minister Henry Kosgey, East African Community minister Hellen Sambili and Livestock assistant minister Aden Duale.
Other targeted rebel MPs are Charles Keter, Isaac Ruto and Joshua Kutuny “for ditching the party that sponsored them to Parliament.”
Those touted to replace the out-of-favour ODM ministers are Nominated MP Musa Sirma and assistant ministers Margaret Kamar and Magerer Langat who have stood with the PM.
A fortnight ago, two ODM party members went to court in a bid to kick out the rebel MPs.
Should they succeed and the rebel MPs become partyless, they would then be required to seek a fresh mandate from their constituents.
On its part, the Ruto brigade is reported to have toyed with all manner of intrigues, including the bravado laden plan of resigning en masse to weaken ODM and jeopardise the PM’s position by changing the nembers in Parliament.
While Mr Ruto’s onslaught on Mr Odinga has clearly caused shockwaves in the party and shaken its popularity, the Eldoret North MP has also not been unscathed as the perception is that he might not be able to put his political house in order in time for the next election in 2012.
Mr Ruto is also battling a quiet campaign by some leaders from his home turf who include retired President Daniel Moi and his son Gideon, Kanu secretary general Nick Salat and powerful former minister Nicholas Biwott.
Mr Biwott is upbeat that his National Vision Party bagged two civic seats, one in Keiyo South and another in Chepalungu, in recent by-elections and has declared that it is the party to watch in the region.
Lost clout in Rift Valley
“NVP will sweep through this region as it has homegrown solutions,” he said at a meeting in Keiyo recently.
The party’s South Rift coordinator, Mr Bernard Koros, who is also an aspirant for the Chepalungu parliamentary seat, said it was healthy to break the monopoly that comes with one party dominance.
And Mr Moi has lately been receiving ODM councillors from across the province who are “apologising” for ditching Kanu in 2007 and rejoining the independence party.
While Mr Odinga’s ODM has lost clout in Rift Valley, with most chairpersons of civic authorities allied to him being shoved aside in ongoing elections, his party put up a spirited fight in the strategic Nakuru Municipal Council and Baringo County Council to wrest the mayoral seats from a G-7 alliance onslaught.
The party’s decisive win in last Thursday’s Nairobi City Council mayoral election is also seen by observers as an indication that the party is still a force to reckon with despite its troubles.
For Mr Ruto, the International Criminal Court case further complicates matters.
And as the September 1 confirmation hearing date at the ICC draws near, the possibility that the case could bog him down and get in the way of his presidential ambitions is said to have been discussed, albeit in hushed tones in his circles.
Kipkelion MP Magerer Lang’at predicted political realignments should the charges be confirmed.
“The political mood in the region provides the community with time to make sober decisions on which direction to go,” he said.
Kenyatta University lecturer Joseph Magutt agrees.
He says new political realignments will emerge should the ICC confirm the charges against Mr Ruto.
“There is no gainsaying the fact that the challenges that will come with the ICC case will distract Ruto in his campaigns for the top seat,” said Dr Magutt.
Cherang’any MP Joshua Kutuny and his Dujis counterpart Aden Duale, who are close confidants of Mr Ruto, are optimistic the judges will find prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo’s allegations baseless.
“We believe we will come back from The Hague more energised for the campaign trail,” Mr Kutuny said.
He said that UDM, which Mr Ruto has said will be his ticket to State House, is as strong as ever.
He thanked Gen (rtd) John Koech for popularising the party by going to court over its leadership.
“UDM is now popular, with people like Trade minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere, Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo and Gen Koech himself jostling to vie for the presidency on its ticket,” he said.
He said his camp was talking to Gen Koech and he was hopeful they would settle the matter out of court. “He is an amiable gentleman and he will agree with us,” he said.
Gen Koech admitted that Mr Ruto and some “emissaries” had approached him but there was no deal.
“Ruto and some emissaries approached me but their arguments are not convincing. The matter is in court and we don’t want to discuss it. Why do they think a bunch of guys are better than the courts?” he asked.
The ODM-UDM dilemma is a headache for the Kalenjin community, which voted as a bloc in the last General Election.
Political oblivion
While the Ruto camp say they have quit ODM, they do not seem very keen to walk the talk for fear of falling foul of the Political Parties Act and the new Constitution, which could take them back to the electorate.
It is because of this that some of Mr Ruto’s supporters are advising caution lest he rushes headlong into political oblivion if he and his four allies are thrown out of ODM and he fails to wrest UDM from Gen Koech, an ally of Mr Odinga.
Mr Ruto and his group have been arguing that the bid to expel them on the grounds that they had shifted allegiance to UDM is moot point since the party is an affiliate of ODM, with Prof Sambili having run on the party’s ticket.
Prof Egara Kabaji of Masinde Muliro University says the current quagmire in political parties is a result of democratic rules that were not institutionalised.
“The issue should have been simple enough that you cannot have your cake and eat it, but somebody somewhere does not want to effect the law for political reasons,” he said, adding that had the Political Parties Act been invoked, it would have resolved the conflict.
In February, ODM made the first bold attempt at purging the rebels by expelling Mr Duale and Mr Isaac Ruto for allegedly undermining the party.
The party wanted Registrar of Political Parties Lucy Ndung’u to inform the Speaker of the decision that would have seen the MPs lose their seats.
The move, however, came a cropper after the group petitioned the Political Parties Dispute Tribunal and pre-empted it.
Another attempt by Mr Odinga to put his troubled house in order suffered a setback when Independent Electoral and Boundaries Review Commission chairman Issack Hassan recalled names of 50 councillors ODM had forwarded to the Registrar of Political Parties for de-nomination.
Kabianga University College lecturer Herbert Kerre said Mr Odinga was in a situation where he is doomed if he acts and damned if he does not.
“If he expels the rebel MPs and councillors, opponents will paint him as a dictator who does brook the same dissent,” he says.
University of Nairobi political science lecturer Adams Oloo agrees: “Yet if he does not crack the whip, he knows only too well what havoc the rebels can cause from within. He, himself, brought Kanu to its knees in a few months after joining it prior to the 2002 general election,” said Dr Oloo.
Now that the shakeup has not taken place, it remains to be seen who will blink first and whether the haemorrhage arising from separating the Siamese twins will leave any of them alive.
Additional reporting by Jonathan Komen
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