Reshuffle spoils the party for G7

By Stephen Makabila

The mini-Cabinet reshuffle by the principals last Wednesday has shaken the G-7 alliance.

Political scientists say possibilities of the alliance remaining focused depends on how fast its leaders reorganise, given ODM has cleaned its house as a final realignment before the General Election.

Despite some members of the alliance insisting all was intact and that the sacking of their allies from the Cabinet was a minor setback, strains are visible and they have to work overdrive to regain ground.

In the reshuffle by President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Eldoret North MP William Ruto and his Dujis ally Aden Duale were ejected. Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa, who was reportedly earmarked for a Cabinet slot, also lost out with Kibaki reinstating Sirisia MP Moses Wetangula, as Foreign minister.

The reshuffle came a day after Wamalwa hosted Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta in Kitale, at the eighth anniversary of former Vice-President Michael Kijana Wamalwa’s death.

They reassured their supporters the alliance would hold in pursuit for power.

"We hold the aspirations and hopes of the current and future generations. Let us not let them down," Uhuru said.

Apart from Uhuru, Wamalwa, Ruto and Duale, others in the alliance are Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Trade minister Ali Chirau Mwakwere, and former Assistant minister Omingo Magara.

University of Nairobi political science lecturer Adams Oloo says the reshuffle is a setback to the G-7 and that Kibaki could have done it reluctantly.

Wako successor

"Kibaki has always been resisting the reshuffle because those around him did not want the PM to put ODM in order. The President might have accepted the reshuffle as a compromise with the PM to have the way for his preferred successor to Attorney General Amos Wako, Githu Muigai," said Dr Oloo.

Oloo says the G-7 has a challenge of fighting for political ground in Rift Valley, Western and North Eastern provinces, which have been affected by the reshuffle that elevated opponents of its members.

But Chairman of the Centre for Multi-Party Democracy (CMD) Justin Muturi, who is allied to Uhuru, argues the reshuffle may least affect political prospects of the G-7.

"The reshuffle may heighten the momentum of the G-7 because when one is hit, he is inspired to fight back," said Muturi.

He points out at the Ruto scenario, noting dropping him from the Cabinet a week before confirmation of charges against him at the International Criminal Court created a perception among his supporters that he is being politically persecuted.

"Those in the G-7 who are now out of the Cabinet should not be disoriented. Whether one is in or out of the Cabinet a year to an election is not important, especially for those nursing presidential ambitions," added Muturi.

Moi University law lecturer Titus Bittok says the reshuffle was designed to hit the G-7 politically, especially those in ODM, but whether the purpose would be achieved was debatable.

"Those in the Rift Valley elevated to ministerial positions may have a rough time convincing the region to remain in ODM," added Bittok, who is an advocate of the High Court.

Bittok said if Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey, whose Industrialisation docket was left untouched was reinstated, then the move could create a wedge between him and Ruto.

He says the Orange party could still use that to split the Rift Valley Province vote.

Before the reshuffle, there was notable unity in the G-7 alliance, demonstrated during the Kamukunji by-election campaigns where Uhuru, Kalonzo and Wamalwa campaigned for PNU candidate Yusuf Hassan.

Individual parties

However, there are those who say an attempt by G-7 members to strengthen their individual parties at the expense of the alliance, would cast doubts on whether they would field one candidate to face the PM in next year’s poll.

"The fact that top leaders of the alliance are strengthening individual parties raises questions on their commitment to unity," said Bittok.

Raila, speaking in Malava early this month, chided the alliance using the cat and mouse analogy, saying they may never front a single candidate to face him.

While Kalonzo rebranded his ODM-Kenya party, Ruto has been popularising UDM while Wamalwa has been on a mission to strengthen New Ford-Kenya.

Eyebrows were also raised recently after MPs allied to Ruto dismissed UDF, a party that had been linked to Uhuru by some central Kenya leaders allied to the Finance minister.

Prof Frank Matanga, a political science lecturer at Masinde Muliro University, says deciding who carries the G-7 flag would be the alliance’s breaking point.

"Of late, only Uhuru, Wamalwa and Ruto are visible. Kalonzo has seemingly never been part of the group and that is why he has re-branded his party and has been meeting delegations from on his own," added Matanga.

However, Kalonzo’s personal assistant Kaplich Barsito said the VP was a key G-7 member, and that he had only made a tactical retreat in the interest of the alliance.