ICC Round Two sparks anxiety

By Gakuu Mathenge

The confirmation hearings on Kenya’s cases at the International Criminal Court in exactly three weeks time have sparked political anxiety.

The outcome of the confirmation hearings is expected to trigger either a major fallout or result in a re-energized G7 group and a realignment of the entire political landscape.

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Head of Public Service Francis Muthaura, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, Postmaster General Hussein Ali, former Industrialisation Minister Henry Kosgey and radio journalist Joshua Sang are facing charges at The Hague over the chaos that hit Kenya after the disputed presidential election in 2007. However, it is the verdict on Uhuru and Ruto, who have expressed  intentions to run for presidency, that the political field is keenly waiting for.

The scenario has hastened President Kibaki’s lame duck phase, with friends and foes thinking more about their future, not his present.

The quickened pace of activity, and increasing forays from the city by politicians has negatively impacted on their parliamentary business, leading to the Constitutional Implementation Oversight Committee (CIOC) to threaten to extend House sittings to include Saturdays and evenings so as to dispense with pending but urgent legislative work.

Last big thing

The triple factors of President Kibaki’s retirement next year, a looming transitional General Election, and the ICC affair, have hoisted Kenya on delicate tenterhooks, and politicians are positioning themselves.

With Parliament racing against time to put in place critical laws on the new Constitution and the process to recruit commissioners to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission already in motion, the outcome of the confirmation hearings is considered the last big thing before the presidential race begins to take shape. The frenetic pace of electioneering activities by all political formations point to heightened anxieties, with leading politicians going out to all corners of the country to assert themselves as the next power barons.

All key players — Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Premier Uhuru Kenyatta, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, and Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua — have escalated their campaign activities, in a manner that points they are leaving nothing to chance.

Raila, whose poll ratings have been falling, has literally  camped in Meru, making four visits in a span of six weeks. This has put the PNU forces under considerable pressure and in dire need for a political vehicle to counter the onslaught.

Backed by a team of local leaders Gitobu Imanyara, Maoka Maore, Kilemi Mwiria and Mithika Linturi, the PM has displayed dogged determination to sway a chunk of the one million-plus vote block from the PNU axis to ODM.

Frenetic week

On Friday, PNU MPs from the Gema areas of Central Kenya, Eastern, Nairobi and Central Rift Valley endorsed Uhuru Kenyatta as the regions’ torchbearer and leader, but postponed the anticipated announcement of a political party. Uhuru has been on a whirlwind tour of the region, insisting the area must unite “behind one leader” if it is to make an impact in next year’s General Election.

V-P Kalonzo Musyoka has had a frenetic week, campaigning in Kisii, changing his ODM-K party logo from an orange and a half to an umbrella, before launching women and youth lobbies for his presidential campaign at the Bomas of Kenya. This weekend Kalonzo was expected to take his campaigns to Meru region for two days.

On Thursday, a group of Kisii politicians and professionals held a daylong meeting at a Nairobi private members club to hammer out modalities of twinning Ford-People with ODM-K in an alliance.

Martha Karua spent a week in Nyanza where she opened several Narc-Kenya offices, while William Ruto and the former speaker for National Assembly Francis Kaparo hosted a group of MPs and grassroots leaders at his Rumuruti home in Laikipia North.

Cementing relations

The heightened political activities have everything to do with the confirmation hearings next month. The ICC is expected to drastically impact on the Kenya’s political scene when it makes its position known after the confirmation hearings.

The ICC is credited with giving birth to the G7 political grouping and cementing relations between the political axes loyal to Ruto and Uhuru.

It has enjoyed considerable popularity and visibility, and a decision by the ICC that removes one or both of the leading G7 players, all sets them free for that matter, is bound to lead to realignments. The Uhuru and Ruto camps have sought to depict their rivals as heartless on their plight and only waiting on the wings to reap the benefits if they are put on trial.

“The G7 was bound to create a reaction on the ground. The flurry of activities you see around is part of that reaction. People are also preparing for a possible fallout depending on what happens next month. The election time is close, but what happens at The Hague will have a big impact on many critical decisions,” says ODM’s Chief Whip and Gem MP Jakoyo Midiwo.

Former Centre for Multi-Party Democracy boss Larry Gumbe says it would be tactless for anyone to ignore the ICC’s impact on the politiacl field.