Watch Ikolomani by-election for these clues

By Dominic OdipoDuring two election campaign speeches in 1774, Edmund Burke, the Irish orator and legislator, defined with virtuoso clarity what a member of a national assembly ought to be:
"Parliament is a deliberative assembly of one interest, that of the whole; where, not local purposes, not local prejudices, ought to guide, but the general good, resulting from the general reason of the whole. You choose a member indeed; but when you have chosen him, he is not a member of Bristol, but he is a Member of Parliament."
But how should the views and opinions of this member count alongside those of his constituents?
"His unbiased opinion, his mature judgement, his enlightened conscience, he ought not to sacrifice to you, to any man, or to any set of men living. These are a trust from Providence, for the abuse of which he is deeply answerable. Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgement; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion."
If there has been a true Burkean representative in Kenya’s Tenth Parliament, that man has been Dr Bonny Khalwale, the former member for Ikolomani who comes up for re-election in a by-election next week. Khalwale has been a true member of the National Assembly.
He spoke for the whole country in the original Burkean idiom and, in the process, stepped on many toes and bloated egos, both inside and outside Parliament. Many of those wounded by Khalwale’s Burkean parliamentary antics or his relatively poor human skills would have been expected to take this opportunity to strike Khalwale out of national politics for good.
Yet, surprisingly, virtually none of them is doing anything of the sort. Instead, they are either flocking to Kakamega to help Khalwale defend his seat against the ODM candidate or staying away from the contest altogether.
More than ten MPs from the former Western Province, including some from ODM, reportedly do not want to see Khalwale defeated by the ODM candidate. And, as it now appears, this is not because of their love or respect for Khalwale’s past parliamentary performances.
NEW NARRATIVE
So what is going on?
If Prime Minister Raila Odinga does not have his ears on the ground in Kakamega as the Ikolomani by-election campaigns grind to a close, he had better.
He had better keep his ears open because there is a new narrative developing in Ikolomani and the larger Luhyaland which could not only ensure that Khalwale beats his ODM opponent but also that Raila loses the majority of his Luhya supporters in the run-up to the 2012 presidential elections.
This new narrative is being developed around three simple questions. What exactly has the Prime Minister done for the people of Western Province since he took office in April 2008? How many senior ministers, permanent secretaries or ambassadors have been appointed from the region since he took office?
Like its subject, the second issue or question stands starkly alone. Why is there still no smoke billowing out of the chimneys of Webuye Paper Mills more than three years after the Coalition Government came into power?
If the Prime Minister really had the economic interests of the Luhya at heart, could he have left this factory lying idle for so long?
The third issue goes to the heart of this matter and could make or break Raila’s 2012 presidential bid. In very few words, the question is this: Why should the Luhya not field their own presidential candidate next year, especially if he stands a bigger chance of garnering the Kalenjin vote than Raila himself?
With regard to the first issue, there appears to be a nagging feeling within the Luhya community that only Musalia Mudavadi has been given a full ministerial docket under the ODM banner.
The rest of the full ministries, like Foreign Affairs and Wildlife, apparently came through the PNU route. And among the permanent secretaries, apparently only Andrew Mondoh came in through ODM.
The issue of the Webuye Paper Mills speaks for itself. Thousands of people from the region were thrown out of work when the factory was shut. More than three years after the people of Webuye voted in droves for Raila for president and for Alfred Sambu as their ODM MP, the factory is still shuttered. Why?
EUGENE VS RAILA?
The third issue, and probably the trickiest for the Prime Minister, rotates around the possible presidential candidacy of Eugene Wamalwa, the MP for Saboti.
Apparently, the word doing the rounds the region is that Eugene could become a very serious candidate if he could garner both Luhya and Kalenjin votes at the first ballot. The Luhya appear to be already smelling power through Eugene and they now don’t see what business they should have voting Raila for president.
The point of all this is that, for good or ill, Khalwale happens to be at the centre of this new narrative. He will win or lose the coming by-election upon it. That is why the results of the Ikolomani by-election could make or break Raila’s 2012 presidential bid.
The writer is a lecturer and consultant in Nairobi.
dominicodipo@yahoo.co.uk