Raila still ahead of pack despite waning support

By Standard Team
Jostling in the run-up to the President Kibaki succession is accelerating, with lead rivals seeking to consolidate their support, while opening up new frontiers.
This happened even as an opinion poll released on Saturday by Synovate indicated that if the presidential election were to be held today, there would be no outright winner, and that a second round would have to be held.
"It appears likely that if a presidential election were held now, run-off would be required, said Synovate Managing Director, George Waititu.
The poll conducted between February 7 and 9 show Prime Minister Raila Odinga has dropped to 34 per cent down from 42 in December, but still remains the most preferred presidential candidate.
Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka has also dropped from 12 per cent in December to eight. Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta’s popularity has risen from 14 per cent to 16 over the same period. Eldoret North MP William Ruto’s has also improved from four to six per cent. Martha Karua has also moved up to seven per cent from last December.
And yesterday, Raila, during a visit to Meru took on his main adversaries in the Coalition Government, dismissing them for engaging in cheap politics. The Prime Minister was in a bullish mood, taking every opportunity to hit at the leaders behind the Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Kamba (KKK) alliance during his extensive tour of larger Meru.
Kalonzo, Uhuru and Eldoret Ruto have distanced themselves from claims that theirs is a tribal alliance under the KKK tag. They have, however, formed a coalition that seeks to stop Raila from ascending to the presidency next year.
Uhuru and some MPs from Rift Valley and Central Province were also expected to attend a meeting convened by IDPs from across the country at Gilgil yesterday, but they all did not turn up.
Yesterday, Musyoka took seven MPs from the PNU wing of the coalition to Kijabe where they accused Raila of hatching the plot to fix Cabinet Secretary and Head of Civil Service Francis Muthaura.
Speaking in vernacular, the MPs took turns to attack Raila, his political career and his leadership.
The MPs also defended Musyoka’s shuttle diplomacy to defer the International Criminal Court cases against Uhuru, Ruto, Kosgey and Muthaura, who have been named among suspects of the 2007-2008 post-election violence.
Those who accompanied the VP were MPs David Njuguna (Lari), John Mututho (Naivasha), Peter Mwathi (Limuru), Jeremiah Kioni (Ndaragwa), Emilio Kathuri (Manyatta), Johnstone Muthama (Kangundo), and Victor Munyaka (Machakos Town).
Rift ValleyPolitical analysts have said that with the falling out with Ruto who is carrying out an anti-Raila campaign among the Kalenjin in the Rift Valley, the Prime Minister will have to seek new ground to plug the hole.
His tour of Meru on Saturday, just like his visit to North Eastern Province two weeks ago, will be seen as being part of his strategy to venture into new frontiers.
The Meru region has traditionally supported President Kibaki, but leaders from the region have been mumbling about being short-changed in appointments.
Several ODM-allied ministers and MPs accompanied the PM. Ministers James Orengo, Joseph Nyagah, Wycliffe Oparanya, Franklin Bett and Fred Gumo, Alfred Khangati and Manyala Keya accompanied Raila on the tour. MPs from the region did not attend.
Those present faulted local MPs for not attending the meeting because the PM’s visit was to inspect development projects, including launching of the construction of Meru-Mikinduri-Maua road.
But ministers in the entourage joined the PM in dismissing PNU leaders saying they cannot pull out of the Coalition Government, saying only the two principals could call off the union.
"Kibaki and Raila are the only people who signed the accord and only they would call it off. Forget the shouts by other spanner boys who are shouting the loudest," said Oparanya.
Bett dared Rift Valley MPs who have rebelled against ODM to quit the party and seek fresh mandate in accordance with the Political Parties Act. The ministers drummed up support for Raila’s presidential bid in the General Election, due next year.
At Mikinduri where the PM held the last rally, area leaders called for more development projects, including tarmacking of several roads, water projects, and construction of health facilities.
Raila urged Kenyans to shun politicians propagating tribal politics, saying that much emphasis should be geared towards implementation of a new Constitution.
"We want to lay a good foundation for a new constitutional dispensation. When doing this, we must avoid falling to politicians engaging in politics of tribalism," he said, in Meru Town.
Raila said the benefits of the new Constitution would only be felt after the General Election. He thus urged Kenyans to rally behind the full implementation of the new laws.
In Kijabe, the VP cautioned Kenyans about who they would want to elect as their president.
"This country needs peace and we should not accept leadership that would bring problems," he said.
Muthama said Uhuru would not go to The Hague. "We will continue being with Uhuru and we will win," the Kangundo MP said.
The Hague optionMuthama, an ally of the Vice-President, said he had initially supported The Hague option, but he has changed his mind because the "innocent ones" were being targeted.
Njuguna said Uhuru would remain in Kenya so that Kalonzo can have someone to walk with.
Mututho advised Kalonzo to ignore those who were criticising his deferral mission. Mwathi said the VP should be commended for trying to save Kenya’s face before the international community. Mututho claimed that ODM wants to ‘deprive’ the President of Muthaura.
"Raila has his man, Caroli Omondi and he should leave Kibaki’s Muthaura alone," Mututho said.
— Story by Moses Njagih, Athman Amran and Patrick Muriungi.