Turf wars a recipe for economic lockdown

 

By KWENDO OPANGAPosted Saturday, February 26 2011 at 16:54

In Summary

• Implementation of new Constitution also jeopardised as coalition principals and their parties fight it out

Good people, we are headed for political volatility and turbulence throughout this year. This shakiness and unpredictability could impact negatively on the implementation of the Constitution and, worse, on the economy, as we head into Election 2012.

On February 2, Prime Minister Raila Odinga quoted a very disturbing World Bank study on Kenya. The Bank, he said, reports that since 1992 Kenya attains appreciable economic growth in the first two years of every administration after elections and that this goes down to zero after the next elections.

Indeed, Kenya recorded an impressive seven per cent growth under the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) government that came into power in 2002. But this growth was violently and painfully shattered and the economy brought to its knees by the murderous mayhem of the late 2007 and early 2008.

From its inauguration in February 2008, the governing coalition, despite its intermittent internal quarrels, has raised economic growth from 1.9 per cent to the current 6 per cent.

The government has got the micro-economics right; inflation is down to about five per cent; the exchange rate is stable; and, interest rates friendly.

This growth is in danger of being reversed ahead of the next General Election. The politics is increasingly polarised and personalised, hate-filled and ethnic-based as to be profoundly foreboding.

The politics is paralysing the implementation of the Constitution on which a lot depends in addressing and redressing the causes of the 2007/2008 election chaos.

The Constitution cannot become fully operational if Parliament does not move with haste to enact an estimated 47 pieces of legislation and also set up the institutions to demarcate boundaries and electoral zones.

This will not be done if President Kibaki and the PM are in a constant state of rivalry and warfare, finger-pointing and label-pinning and, worse, endless turf wars. When the principals fight, their allies in Cabinet and Parliament and the entire Executive join in and government is frozen.

Things will not move if the political agenda of the Party of National Unity (PNU) and its newfound allies from the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is to pull out of government and to fight to remove or replace the PM, Attorney General Amos Wako, House Speaker Kenneth Marende and Parliamentary Legal and Justice Committee chairman Ababu Namwamba.

The resulting uncertainty and instability in the political arena, which inevitably spills into the Civil Service and paralyses government, scares investors; they put their plans on hold or look elsewhere for better investment climates.

The country loses out as the elephants of the political arena fight it out. The economy is battered and national, regional and individual dreams are shattered.

One such dream, Vision 2030 -- the government’s blueprint for transforming Kenya into a middle income country by 2030 -- will be put in jeopardy.

And there is a huge lesson here. Ninety five (95) per cent of the funding for the Vision is local and private sector-based. Political uncertainty grinds local production to a crawl.

The gridlock in government affects our international image adversely. Indeed, the tragedy is that what has given fresh and urgent impetus to the political fights in the coalition is the decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to prefer charges of crimes against humanity against six prominent Kenyans.

The sextet was fingered by ICC as the masterminds of the 2007/2008 election violence. Previously most politicians thought the ICC process would take an eternity to kick in, if at all.

When it did and the suspects included Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Public Service Head Francis Muthaura, former Commissioner of Police Hussein Ali, William Ruto and Henry Kosgey, panic and division set in.

PNU wants the UN Security Council to defer the cases against the sextet so that they can eventually be tried locally. ODM sees the campaign as driven more by a desire by PNU to protect some of the suspects.

PNU’s demonisation of ICC and politicisation of the cases convinces ODM that sovereignty is not the issue but a desire to shield suspects and defeat justice.

The President’s infamous nominations to key state jobs may have been withdrawn because they hurt more than helped the deferral case before the UN Security Council.

The rivalry between President and PM, PNU and ODM is causing civil war in government and a gridlock in delivery. If they don’t stop, expect economic lockdown next year. As I say, I hope I am wrong; I fear I am right.

The writer is a media consultant diplospeak@yahoo.com