Odinga-KKKK war

The South Mugirango by-election provides a unique challenge in measuring the influence of Prime Minister Raila Odinga against the so-called KKKK alliance of Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and the PM’s ODM nemesis Higher Education minister William Ruto.

Thursday’ss by-election was called after ODM’s erstwhile pointman in Gusii politics, Mr Omingo Magara, was stripped of the seat following a successful High Court challenge filed by Mr Manson Nyamweya of Ford people.

By then, Mr Magara was already allied to Mr Ruto in the incessant war with Mr Odinga in ODM. When it became apparent he would not get a free pass for the party nomination, he switched to the Progressive Democratic Party ticket, and became the focal point for anti-Odinga forces on the national scene.

Mr Odinga responded by turning up the heat with an aggressive campaign for the ODM candidate Ibrahim Ochoi as the polls drew to a close.

The Magara-Ochoi duel not only seemed to turn the battle for South Mugirango into a two-way duel, but also a proxy war featuring the Odinga-Ruto duel in ODM and the Odinga-KKKK war on the national arena.

The intensity overshadows the fact that there are nine other candidates on the campaign trail, including Ford People’s Manson Nyamweya whose petition nullified Mr Magara’s 2007 re-election.

Other candidates in the race are John Ondora (Kanu), Abaga Sagero (National Vision Party), Robert Mbaka (Safina), Master Ondara (Kenya Social Congress), Ezekiel Okengo (Narc Kenya), Rashid Miyonga (Peoples Party of Kenya), Joash Kengere (Labour Party of Kenya) and Ezekiel Kemwa (Kenya National Democratic alliance (Kenda).

Another major sub-plot in the by-election is the local battle for political supremacy in the wider Kisii region. Education minister Sam Ongeri hails from Kanu, but has been campaigning for Mr Magara, while Mr Chris Obure has been out on the stumps for Mr Ochoi.

The Magara family has been holding the seat for the constituency — best known for soap stones — since 1997 when it was captured by Mr Enoch Magara, who died in a 2001 road accident, to be succeeded by his brother in the ensuing by-election.

Omingo Magara first went to Parliament through Ford People in a hotly contested poll that marked political war between Prof Ongeri and Mr Simon Nyachae.

Mr Magara was re-elected in 2002 through Ford People, when he got 19,317 votes against his closest rival Manson Nyamweya’s 6,076 (Kanu).

By 2007 he had become the focal point for the ODM in the wider Kisii, becoming part of a tidal wave that eclipsed both Kanu and Mr Nyachae’s Ford People as well as President Kibaki’s PNU alliance. He got 10,200 votes, nearly doubling those of his closest challenger, Mr Ochoi.

With 13 years under his belt, Mr Magara is a seasoned politician who commands plenty of support, but his long tenure can also be a drawback because of questions about a poor road network, falling education standards and other problems affecting the constituency.

Capitalising heavily

He faces a strong challenge from Mr Ochoi who is capitalising heavily on the support from Mr Odinga and the ODM network. The former school headmaster made his maiden appearance in 2007 and emerged the runner up on the New Ford Kenya ticket.

His grassroots approach to politics and residence in the constituency has positioned him as the candidate who could run away with the voters who ordinarily do not turn out for the huge campaign trails.

Not to be discounted is Mr Nyamweya, a veteran in the constituency’s politics but who has never succeeded in his quest for the seat. A business man who has a grassroots campaign network, he also stands to benefit from the vote of PNU supporters who do not like Mr Magara.

Former ruling party Kanu is also in the race, with the nomination of lawyer Joshua Ondora overshadowed by the internal tussles.

Retired President Moi’s son Gideon and his key ally, party secretary general Nick Salat, had to push through Mr Ondora’s nomination after Mr Kenyatta’s allies at party headquarters failed to provide the papers.

Clan politics will play a major part in determining the voting patterns. The three major clans are Bosinange, Botabori and Getenga. Getenga clan has Mr Ochoi and Mr Nyamweya, both strong candidates.