RAILA TO PULL OUT?

The Big Question: What's gone wrong in Kenya, and is the peace deal unravelling?

By Daniel Howden, Africa Correspondent

"Is this about corruption?

While corruption is arguably the issue in Kenya it's not the reason that the unity government marriage is on the rocks. Behind the scenes it has become increasingly clear that an informal deal between the two protagonists – that Mr Kibaki would endorse Mr Odinga for the presidency at the next elections, expected in 2012, in return for his support now – has been reneged upon.

At the least, the prime minister would demand that the president not actively support anyone standing against him but it's now clear that will not happen either. The battle lines between Mr Kibaki's PNU party and Mr Odinga's ODM have been drawn and corruption happens to be the chosen issue.

What is the PM up to?

While he comes from a political dynasty and has been steeped in high politics since birth, Mr Odinga is phenomenally adept at recasting himself as a man of the people. Throughout his career he has landed on the right side of the key issues – sometimes with the help of a complete U-turn – just at the right time. He appears to be doing so again. His advisers understand that the election in 2002 was about getting rid of the reviled Daniel arap Moi, who had overseen a brutal one-party state.

The 2007 poll, they know, was reduced to identity politics. Now, some analysts believe Mr Odinga is trying to shape the terms of the next vote and trying out issues like the environment, corruption and probably constitutional reform next to see what works. When that becomes clear he will likely resign from the government and campaign as the leader of the opposition.".....

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/the-big-question-whats-gone-wrong-in-kenya-and-is-the-peace-deal-unravelling-1901556.html