Will Kalonzo ascend to State House?

By Oscar Obonyo

With just three months to the General Election, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka has been gifted with a new palatial home – the official residence of deputy President – which he has declined. Has he equally smoked away his luck or is his a statement of confidence that he deserves better – the State House?

The only other official residence of the VP was occupied by first holder of that office, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and Daniel arap Moi, Kenya’s third Vice-President. Of the two, one went on to become president while the other faltered politically, an indication of just how slippery the Number Two slot is.

Out of Kenya’s ten VPs since Independence, only two have ascended to the position of President – Moi and Mwai Kibaki. It was much easier for Moi, who took charge in 1978 following the death of founding President Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, during the one party era. It was hard for Kibaki who had to fight twice at the ballot winning on third attempt with simple majority.

It is even harder for Kalonzo, who must win half of the total votes cast and secure 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 counties. It gets even gloomier considering the recent history, where the last two VPs – Musalia Mudavadi and Moody Awori – were all rejected by voters. Michael Kijana Wamalwa died in office.

Supporters of Kalonzo, however, believe he will break this jinx and go on to be only the third VP to become president. But all indications are that the road ahead is not only bumpy, but remains unclear.

Only last week, it was indicated the VP had finally bolted out of the G7 alliance. But that may have changed following a four-hour long meeting between the VP and Eldoret North MP William Ruto.

Now key allies confess they are unaware where the VP is headed. This is a rather discomforting indicator for the Mwingi North MP, who is not only the second longest serving legislator in Parliament after President Kibaki, but is second in command. Ideally, he is supposed to be the President in-waiting.

Chart political path

But in his characteristic hands-off style, the President has declined to publicly endorse a preferred successor. This has complicated the situation for Kalonzo, as some opine Kibaki’s action is tantamount to lack of confidence in his deputy or he has someone else in mind.

Besides battling this perception, the VP has to deal with reality that support for his presidential bid from Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto may not be forthcoming.

Yet Ruto’s decision to re-start negotiations is now confusing the Kalonzo camp. It makes it difficult for him to freely proceed with discussions with Mudavadi’s camp. Also in abeyance are overtures by his allies towards Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

“The environment is still very fluid, but the umbilical cord that connects Kalonzo to Uhuru and Ruto has not yet been cut because on one hand he expects their support for his presidential bid, on the other hand he must complete the process he started on shuttle diplomacy or pushing for a local settlement of the cases at The Hague,” explains Nominated MP Mohammed Affey.

Unlike before when his matrix was dependent on his political juniors, Uhuru and Ruto, the VP has opted to chart his own political path.

“The move to decamp from G7, for instance, is demonstration that he has what it takes to run his own show. That is why he is reaching out to other players like Mudavadi while his allies are casting an eye for the PM,” says Francis Mwangangi, National Coordinator of Wiper Ambassadors lobby group.

Indeed, nothing demonstrates Kalonzo’s seriousness than the attempt to reach out to an array of leaders from across the political divide, some who are his bitter rivals. Insiders say the VP is leaving nothing to chance and has fully taken control of his political campaign.

Says Mr Mwangangi: “The Wiper party is keen at involving everyone in the Kalonzo presidential bid. As a top career diplomat and peacemaker, the VP has at no given time thought of excluding any Kenyan community in his political engagements.” Kalonzo’s vice-presidency is unique as it was earned following negotiations after Kibaki’s controversial win in 2007 elections. The President lacked enough numbers and Kalonzo accordingly moved in with his then ODM-Kenya party to bolster the President’s party.

“He is a more confident VP and because he has been part of the presidency, he is better prepared than any other challenger to handle the docket,” Affey told The Standard On Sunday.

And noting that President Kibaki has delegated nearly 60 per cent of his foreign engagements to his deputy, the MP observes this gesture says a lot about the level of trust the President has in Kalonzo.

In the meantime, the VP will not relent in his political overtures to challengers. Ruto, whom he described at a rally in Kapsabet last Wednesday as “my younger brother” and who is trying to woo Kalonzo back to G-7, is said to be the VP’s prime target. Indeed, soon it will be evident whether Kalonzo will be the other VP to end up at State House.