What Uhuru-Ruto new alliance means

By OSCAR OBONYO and ABDIKADIR SUGOW??

The near-sealed political deal between Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, has spurred the trio of Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi into cobbling a new political force.

The increasing possibility that Raila, Kalonzo, and Mudavadi may team up to take on the Uhuru-Ruto axis is emerging as something that  changer in several ways; most significantly, pushing the presidential race to a two-horse contest between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta with their respective teams.

Though not concretised, The Standard On Sunday has reliably established the latter grouping is being pieced together more as a reaction to the Uhuru-Ruto alliance. Owing to the delicate nature of the plot, it is being executed hurriedly with a view to sealing the same within the next three weeks.   

It is significant that cabinet ministers allied to both Raila and Kalonzo camps were over the weekend urging the two leaders to come together. Addressing a public rally in Makueni County where Education Minister was launching his bid for the County’s senatorial seat, Lands Minister James Orengo, assistant minister Oburu Odinga and legislator Bifwoli Wakoli hinted at a possibility of Kalonzo and Mudavadi teaming up with Raila Odinga.

Variously mocked as the Uhuru-Ruto spare wheels, Kalonzo and Mudavadi have opted to join their wheels. They will shortly be adding the third wheel in the name of Raila and a fourth of either Restore and Build Kenya (RBK) leader Prof James ole Kiyiapi or Kenya National Congress (KNC) leader, Peter Kenneth, to form a complete vehicle.

According to our sources, the talks, which kicked off with Kalonzo and Mudavadi on Monday, are expected to culminate into a union with Raila in the second phase. Already Joint Government Chief Whip and Kangundo MP, Johnstone Muthama, has been politically cosy with the PM.  

Reached for comment, Ikolomani MP Dr Bonny Khalwale, a co-convener of the Monday meeting, hinted that Kalonzo and Mudavadi are spoiling for political battle: “As far as we are concerned, the TNA, URP, Wiper and UDF talks are still on. But the moment it becomes clear that they have hit the rock, then Uhuru and Ruto should be prepared to be treated like competitors. And I can assure you they will not like it.”

It is an open secret the said talks have collapsed or at least that Kalonzo and Mudavadi have not been actively involved. The two, who incidentally are the longest serving members of the Cabinet after President Kibaki, were reportedly destined to play second fiddle to the Uhuru-Ruto pair.

Alternatively, they were to serve as “Plan B” with either of them running as President, in the event the Uhuru-Ruto quest for presidency ran into trouble, owing to charges at The Hague for their alleged role in the 2007 post-election violence.

That might still be true of Mudavadi, but Kalonzo has already bolted out. The Wiper Democratic Movement Chairman, David Musila explained to The Standard On Sunday that the VP opted out on the earlier arrangement to chart out a more serious presidential bid.

According to insiders, though, the VP’s allies were irked by what they saw as their man being belittled by “politicians who should be kowtowing to him”, as one Kalonzo confidant put it.

But the last nail that ruined the Uhuru-Ruto-Kalonzo union was the inclusion of his nemesis, Water minister Charity Ngilu into the grouping.  

The Kalonzo-Mudavadi talks, The Standard On Sunday has learnt, are already on course. Musila, who is also Defence assistant minister, Education minister Mutula Kilonzo and Nominated MP Mohammed Affey, represent the Wiper party in the negotiations, while Khalwale and Shinyalu MP Justus Kizito represent UDF.

And Muthama reveals the new alliance brings together old political friends and foes to counter the Uhuru-Ruto axis: “After very serious thoughtful consideration regarding the current political realignments, I have come to the conclusion that our country is seriously divided along tribal lines and enough is enough. We must now have a united bloc that represents the ‘Face of Kenya’,”.

Conceding that he is the chief architect of this new strategy, the Kangudo legislator divulged the new strategy is to see the emergence of two or three political parties that will take the country’s leadership after the elections.

But Joint Government Chief Whip, Jakoyo Midiwo, could not confirm or deny existence of a Raila-Kalonzo-Mudavadi plot. But he offered that as time ticks away towards the election date, “everybody must come out of his or her comfort zone and talk”. 

“Anyway, something is definitely cooking and there is no need to hide this from you because in three week’s time when the deadline for pre-election pacts comes to an end, everything shall come to the fore,” Midiwo told The Standard On Sunday.  

However, Musila was more guarded, by appealing to supporters to be more patient: “We have structured talks with Mudavadi but not the PM. But that does not mean Raila and Kalonzo are not engaged in informal talks of whatever nature.”

And fearing that ties with Uhuru and Ruto are deteriorating, Khalwale further warns the duo against what he considers chest-thumping: “The PM has been playing combative bare-knuckled politics with them and if Mudavadi and may be Kalonzo were to do the same, they would be buried under an avalanche of bricks within days.” 

 Supporters of the trio at grassroots level, separately believe their man is best suited as flag bearer.

“If Kalonzo and Mudavadi join Raila, then he will kill off the game in the first round. The Raila-Mudavadi combination make our campaigns in western Kenya even smoother,” says Musavini Nambwa, parliamentary aspirant and ODM Chairman Malava branch, Kakamega County.? ?

Meanwhile Francis Mwangangi, National Coordinator of Wiper Ambassadors lobby group, describes the VP’s decision to pull out of the so-called G-7 arrangement as “the best and most strategic”. Mwangangi, who considers Kalonzo the best candidate, says the rest should now help the VP to proceed with his presidential bid without hitches.

But even as a Raila-Kalonzo-Mudavadi union is touted, members of UDF are categorical?that they are yet to directly engage the Orange party;  Khalwale maintains a Kalonzo-Mudavadi union is enough to win the presidency in first round.? A combination of Raila, Kalonzo and Mudavadi is indeed tricky. They have previously worked together and fallen out rather acrimoniously and pundits doubt that they can gel as a team. Besides this factor, the Uhuru-Ruto team also strongly feels that the VP and DPM, in particular “do not have attractive numbers”.

“Politics is about numbers and this are of great essence to us in this election. There is also the constitutional requirement that a successful candidate garners at least 25 per cent of half of the 47 counties. It is anybody’s guess whether some of these politicians can achieve that,” says Dujis MP Aden Duale, who is allied to URP.

Separately, Nominated MP George Nyamweya maintains UDF will only enter into a union with parties with shared values: “Our party will not be hoping into unions simply because everybody is doing it and it is therefore fashionable. There must be a common course between us”.

Nyamweya nonetheless castigates those insisting “we must be in the next Government”. According to the MP, UDF is not ready to make mistakes of previous years, as did Narc and PNU, by forming amorphous entities for sheer purposes of getting to power.

Separately, Muthama is confident that despite the public denials about the proposed alliance and the negotiations taking place after the fallout between Ruto and Raila, and the apparent sidelining of Musyoka from the G7 alliance, the four leaders and their parties will come to an agreement, which must be deposited with the Registrar of Political Parties by December 4.

He says more than 70 per cent of the negotiations have been concluded, adding that his deep desire and conviction for a united bloc representing the face of Kenya is what prompted him to abandon his previous opposition to Raila. He also says it is very much possible for the PM and Musyoka to work together and to accept the popular verdict of Kenyans.

Muthama further revealed Raila had confided to him that he may “end up as the 4th President of Kenya, which will be a success to him and the country, yet at the same time is ready to end up supporting another candidate so long as he or she has the integrity and credibility to win the support of Kenyans.”

“These are the words of a nationalist who seeks leadership not on the basis of come what may. Kalonzo has also told me that it does not matter who becomes President, so long as they have integrity, credibility and the popular will.”

He says Raila, Kalonzo and Mudavadi have the unique record as “true leaders who have allowed others to lead as demonstrated by Raila’s famous ‘Kibaki Tosha’ declaration in 2002 that led to Kibaki winning the presidency.  “Because of these similarities, they should not work separately but as a team of selfless individuals as they have demonstrated before,” says Muthama.

But with the fluid nature of Kenyan politics, whereas anything is possible with alliances being formed between erstwhile bitter enemies, nothing is likely to firmed up as the official position possibly until the December 4th deadline for parties to present their line ups and alliances. 

Additional reporting by Daniel Nzia & Onesmus Nzioka