URP, TNA strength at elections to determine stakes in Government

By Mwaniki Munuhe

The United Republican Party came out to declare that there is no deal yet with The National Alliance amid reports that the two parties had agreed to share positions in government on the basis of party strength.

Dujis MP Aden Duale, who is a close ally of the URP presidential aspirant William Ruto, said his party has not drawn any agreement with Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta’s TNA yet.

“Trust me, there is no deal yet, I am sitting here with my party leader as we speak and to tell you the truth there is no deal. We are talking to all parties, we want to enter into a coalition that will unite the country and form a stable government. We are not yet there,” he said

This happened even as multiple sources within TNA and URP informed The Standard On Sunday that save for the top positions of the president, his deputy, leader of majority in Parliament, and Speakers of the Senate and National Assembly, which have been agreed on between Uhuru and Ruto, other appointive government positions will be distributed based on each party’s contribution in the General Election and in line with the constitutional requirements.

Adequate consultations

“Politics is about what one actually delivers in terms of votes not what one is expected to deliver. Even as we draw these coalitions, TNA is cautious about that because we believe positions in government should and will be shared proportionately according to the number of votes each party delivers to the presidential candidate. So we wait to see after elections how much each of the parties we are working with would have delivered,” said Runyenjes MP Cecil Mbarire.

Cherangany MP Joshua Kuttuny who is also a close ally of Ruto said, “You can’t come with two MPs and tell us you want 30 per cent share in government. As much as we will accommodate everybody, much of what each party would get in government would depend on the strength of individual parties in the coalition.”

Contacted for comment, Uhuru through his spokesperson, Munyori Buku, however, said talks are still ongoing and that the outcome would be communicated.

“Talks are going on among various parties, the outcome will be known in the coming weeks. But we want to do adequate consultations and listen to the voice of the people,” said Buku.

The Standard equally obtained a working document some technocrats in the DPM’s party, a key partner in the coalition, have been using to measure the estimated level of sway each party might have in different areas.

The document is based on the voting pattern in the 2007 General Election, which saw President Kibaki face off with Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

Competitive

A source in the coalition talks said the agreement to use party strength to decide stakes in government after it became difficult to reach a conclusive agreement on any other alternative formula.

Curiously, however, TNA strategy leaves out Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi.

Whereas counties largely seen to strongly support Ruto, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, and Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa are clearly labeled ‘alliance counties’, those under Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi are not.

But Mudavadi’s spokesperson Kibisu Kabatesi said his party is engaged in “serious negotiations” with like-minded parties.

“UDF is engaged in serious negotiations with other parties, but they are not subject to photo sessions,” he said.

Asked whether UDF was duped into decamping from Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) by external forces Kibisu said, “If that were so, were other presidential aspirants also duped because most of them left their parties to go and form others? There was nothing to gain in ODM because the party was not going to encourage competitive presidential elections and we were interested in the presidency.”

The document has identified Nairobi, Lamu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kisii, and Nyamira counties as swing vote counties.

The category two of swing counties includes Tana River, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, and Narok. However, Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale and West Pokot counties are mapped out as ‘battleground counties’ according to TNA’s working document in our possession.

The Constitution requires all political parties willing to go into a coalition to deposit such coalition agreements with the Registrar of Political Parties by December 4.