Reality check on Ruto, Uhuru presidential bids

By Juma Kwayera

With the General Election nearing, the challenges the candidatures of Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, who are facing crime against humanity charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC), pose to the country are getting clearer.

While they are aware of the inherent economic, political and diplomatic risks the country faces as a result of their search for presidency, the two have turned the ICC charges into an effective election tool.

Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan during his recent visit to Kenya raised concerns that the country is hurtling toward a political and economic cliff similar to the one Zimbabwe went through after President Mugabe declined to surrender power despite losing to Morgan Tsvangirai in the 2008 election.

Mr Annan said a presidency of the two has serious implications for Kenya’s international relations — a veiled warning that sanctions are inevitable.

Catastrophe

However, Uhuru and Ruto have scoffed at calls not to run and declared their candidatures a ‘referendum’ on the international court. Ruto has gone further and said he can govern from The Hague with help of technology.

Uhuru’s remarks last week that he does not care about threats of sour relations with the West have been met with cynicism in and outside the country.

Prof Egara Kabaji, Head of Communication Department at Masinde Muliro University, said Uhuru and Ruto’s insistence to run for presidency “is a catastrophe in waiting.”

“Already they cannot travel abroad. What will follow if they are elected? Kenya will be declared a pariah state,” said Kabaji.

Kabaji was at the Foreign Affairs Ministry when Zimbabwe, Sudan and other countries in the Maghreb region were tagged pariah.  Former Secretary General of the Organisation of African Union Salim Ahmed Salim said the West is right in demanding good governance and respect for human rights.

“The West is not dictating to Africans. Any election must serve the interests of the people. It is, therefore, essential that the process is credible and meets accepted standards. It should be free of any suspicions,” Salim, a career diplomat, said.

Salim would not comment on the indictment of Ruto and Uhuru in the context of the coming elections.

He, however, noted that human rights violations and crimes against humanity are breaches that should be addressed.

“We want to see peaceful and democratic elections in Kenya. Kenya is a good member of international community in East Africa. Whatever happens after the elections will have a direct bearing on Tanzania and neighbouring countries. No one wants Kenya to collapse,” Salim, Tanzania’s long-serving Foreign minister, told The Standard.

Foreign nations

Unlike countries in Northern Africa that had alternative source of funding from the Middle East and Asia, Zimbabwe, like Kenya, depends on the West for aid and exports. Freezing of aid triggered economic haemorrhage in Zimbabwe, which precipitated massive exodus of refugees to neighbouring countries as sanctions bite.

To this day, people holding Zimbabwe passports are scrutinised thoroughly before they are allowed into foreign countries.

Kabaji said Kenyans should brace themselves for this kind of ‘dog treatment’ in the event the ‘ICC referendum ticket’ carries the day on March 4, 2013 elections.

He argued that Kenya’s international credibility is on the line and Kenyans will also be held accountable through punitive sanctions if they elect a ‘rogue’ government. In international relations, a pariah State is a nation that breaches international norms of behaviour.

The tag is ascribed by the United Nations or most powerful States and when this happens, the country is isolated and may even be attacked or subjected to punitive sanctions. The education sector, security, tourism, coffee, tea and aviation industries are all dependent on West and any interference would be calamitous to the country, according to the don.

“In Zimbabwe, there was an institutional collapse despite African Union standing by Mugabe. Contrary to what the two candidates are saying, the general election is going to be a referendum on what Kenyans want and what the electorate stands for. The destiny of the country is in the hands of Kenyans. The ego trips the candidates have been making to neighbouring countries will be forgotten as soon the sanctions begin to apply,” Kabaji said.

Currently, Ruto and Uhuru are not allowed to set foot in most Western capitals (unless they are travelling to The Hague where ICC is based). Concerns about their eligibility and electability come at a time when the two are said to be forging an alliance in which Ruto will be Uhuru’s running mate and would share power on a 50-50 per cent basis.

However, according to analysts, their government would be restricted to Kenyan territory.

As a pointer to things to come, during Uhuru’s tenure as Finance minister, Britain, US, International Monetary Fund and World Bank would not attend meetings with him after he refused to resign following his indictment by ICC.

At present, Uhuru and Ruto are persona non-grata in Britain, US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. They can only travel to Africa, Asia and Middle East, where crimes against humanity are not a big issue. United Kingdom, which subsidises the education through Departments for International Development plans to withdraw funding for education programmes. More trouble awaits Kenya, which hosts the only UN regional headquarters in the southern hemisphere.

At the height of clamour to expand democratic space, Western countries threatened to relocate the offices from Nairobi. Conservative estimates put the contribution of UN offices to foreign exchange earnings to $300 million (Sh25 billion) per annum, besides creation employment.

When The Standard sought to know whether the US would handle an Uhuru and Ruto government, an information officer at the Nairobi embassy Mr Christopher Sniper said it is a hypothetical question that cannot be discussed in definitive terms.

However, Sniper warned, “Accountability for the post-election violence is a critical question to US. The US is not going to make judgement on ICC cases or the eligibility of the suspects to run for presidency. That is for the Kenyans to decide.”