How Raila can craft a winning coalition in face of ethnic alliances

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By MURITHI MUTIGA
Posted  Saturday, November 3  2012 at  17:00

IN SUMMARY

• If President Obama is re-elected on Tuesday he will have much to thank the Chicago team of advisers who have shown how intensive use of research can carve out a path to victory
• Raila can build a winning coalition by going back to his social democratic roots and coming up with a strategy that harks back to the opposition message in the 1990s that theirs was a battle between the poor ranged against the insensitive, wealthy Kanu elite
• If it turns out that Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto are on the same ticket, they will start with a formidable advantage in the numbers game. But Raila can find a path to victory by building a multi-ethnic coalition based on class rather than ethnicity

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Whoever advised Prime Minister Raila Odinga to make the reform process and full implementation of the Constitution the central plank of his presidential bid may be a well- meaning fellow, but that person is also thoroughly misinformed.

I don’t know about you, but I have never met an ordinary mwanainchi who stirs awake in the morning and thinks: “Today, I, Matapela Lipokombe, will do my very best to ensure that the Constitution is fully and properly implemented”.

Kenyan voters, like many others around the world, have more earthly concerns. The vast majority of wananchi are most concerned about their security, the cost of food, their children’s prospects in life and other such.

If President Obama is re-elected on Tuesday he will have much to thank the Chicago team of advisers who have shown how intensive use of research can carve out a path to victory.

They know that the American economy is struggling, but their candidate has high likeability ratings, so they have sent the President to every late evening comedy show they could find.

Polls show former President Clinton is especially popular among male, white working class voters who are suspicious of Obama, and the campaign has relied on the former president to stump in crucial swing states.

They know Obama leads among women and enthusiastically highlight any slip by the Republicans that would widen their advantage.

What do the numbers say about the most pressing issues facing Kenyan adults? Infotrak Harris posed this question in a survey of 11,616 adults carried out in June. The top item on the list was “unemployment, especially among the youth”.

Next was insecurity followed by corruption and “the high cost of living”. Infrastructure and social amenities also featured with poverty and “price control of basic commodities” not far behind.

Elite in Nairobi

The issues that traditionally command media attention of the elite in Nairobi came near the bottom of the list. Implementation of the Constitution was listed as a top priority by 1.6 per cent of respondents, while tribalism topped the concerns of 1.5 per cent of voters.

This is, of course, not an argument against proper implementation of the Constitution. The new structures established by the new law, especially those on devolution, will ultimately be key drivers of development.

But campaigning on this as the central issue of a presidential run is a risky gambit. Many of us who claim to be undecided voters admire Raila’s heroic and patriotic role in the evolution of the modern Kenyan state.

But you’ll find decisions at the voting booth will be determined above all by the question: which candidate promises to make me better off 10 years after they become president?

Raila can build a winning coalition by going back to his social democratic roots and coming up with a strategy that harks back to the opposition message in the 1990s that theirs was a battle between the poor ranged against the insensitive, wealthy Kanu elite.

He can acknowledge the progress made during the Kibaki years but promise that his model would be “development with a human face”.

He can craft a strategy hinged on creation of labour-intensive industries which can help tackle mass youth unemployment through establishment, say, of industrial parks in major towns across the country.

If it turns out that Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto are on the same ticket, they will start with a formidable advantage in the numbers game.

But Raila can find a path to victory by building a multi-ethnic coalition based on class rather than ethnicity. Bread and butter issues instead of the technical, complex issue that implementation of the Constitution involves should be at the heart of his message.

mmutiga@ke.nationmedia.com