As a result of recent polling in Iowa, I have changed the status of the Hawkeye State in my projections from “likely Obama” to “toss-up.” This change in the Electoral College math sets up a real possibility that President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney will each win 269 electoral votes, one short of the 270 needed for election.
If the campaign thus results in an Electoral College tie, the U.S. House of Representatives will elect the next President and the U. S. Senate will elect the next Vice President. Under this scenario, there is a substantial chance that the House of Representatives will elect Mitt Romney President, and the Senate will elect Joe Biden Vice President.
In the House of Representatives, each state delegation has one vote. That vote will be cast for the candidate of the party who has a majority of the seats in that respective state’s House delegation. Presently, the Republicans have a majority of the House seats in 33 states.
It is overwhelmingly likely that the November election will result in the Republicans maintaining control of at least a majority of the state delegations in the House of Representatives, to wit, 26. Accordingly, if the 2012 election for President is decided by the House of Representatives, it is a near certainty that Mitt Romney will be elected President of the United States.
The Senate, however, is a much different matter. If the Senate elects the Vice President, each Senator has one vote.
The Democrats presently control the United States Senate, and this year’s elections may well result in the Democrats retaining a majority in the Upper House. If the 2012 election for Vice President is decided by a Democratic-controlled Senate, Joe Biden will be reelected Vice President of the United States.
Even more fascinating would be the scenario of a Senate with 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans electing the Vice President. In that case, Joe Biden would break the tie and re-elect himself as Vice President!
So there, you would have it – a Romney-Biden administration!
I know what some of you are thinking: Come now, Steinberg, how realistic is the possibility of Obama and Romney each receiving 269 electoral votes?
My answer is: If my Electoral College projections are accurate, it is a VERY real possibility.
Here is the math:
I currently project President Barack Obama as the likely winner of the following states, for a total of 260 electoral votes:
California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.
I project Mitt Romney as the likely winner of the following states, for a total of 235 electoral votes:
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming.
The following are the four toss-up states, containing a total of 43 electoral votes:
Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), and Iowa (6).
In order for Romney to win 270 electoral votes and the Presidency, he must win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado.
The only other way for Romney to win the Presidency would be for him to carry Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. This would give him a tie with Obama, each winning 269 electoral votes, and Romney winning the Presidency in the House of Representatives pursuant to the scenario described above.
Fascinatingly enough, there is a growing possibility that the 269-269 tie scenario WILL happen: Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa, while losing Colorado.
The polls show a Romney trend developing in the toss-up states of Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Simultaneously, the President’s recent grant of partial amnesty to children of illegal immigrants has improved Obama's stature among Hispanic voters in Colorado. There you have it: Romney wins Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa; Obama wins Colorado: and the Electoral College result is a 269-269 tie. Romney is then is elected President by the Republican House of Representatives!
Meanwhile, chances for Democrats retaining control of the U.S. Senate have improved significantly over the past few months. In the event of an Electoral College 269-269 tie, a Democratic-controlled Senate will elect Joe Biden Vice President of the United States.
Then, on January 20, 2013, we will witness the inauguration of Mitt Romney as President and Joe Biden as Vice President. Don’t dismiss the possibility: it very well may happen.
Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and eight federally recognized Indian nations. Under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman, he served as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission. He currently serves on the political science faculty of Monmouth University.
Read more at http://www.politickernj.com/alan-steinberg/57794/election-2012-romney-elected-president-and-biden-elected-vice-president-real-po#ixzz2BUAoC8xM
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