Steave Deace: Third party candidates could ambush Romney in swing states.
9:00AM EST November 4. 2012 - The 2012 race for the White House is coming down to the wire and the margin between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama appears to be razor thin. While the pundits peer through poll results and digest the latest news cycle's impact on the campaign, there are three often overlooked wildcards that could play a spoiler role in determining the eventual outcome.
Wildcard #1
Former Republican New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson is the Libertarian Party candidate for president. While he is not mentioned prominently in any polls, there are enough libertarians unhappy with big government Republicans in two states that could stymie the GOP's chances of getting the necessary 270 Electoral College votes.
Libertarian-leaning Ron Paul supporters in Nevada and my home state of Iowa have made huge inroads in taking over the Republican Party infrastructure in those swing states. Many I've talked to were angered at the Mitt Romney Campaign's rulescommittee power play at the Tampa Convention, which they viewed as an attempt to silence their voices.
Despite Romney's recent national surge, polls show Barack Obama still leading in Nevada and dead-even in Iowa. It wouldn't take many protest votes for the libertarian Johnson to keep both states in Obama's column. However, another down ballot measure in my home state could boost Romney as well, which leads us to the next wildcard.
Wildcard #2
In Iowa with its six crucial Electoral College votes, a down ballot retention electioninvolving one of the judges in the Iowa Supreme Court's controversial marriage ruling in 2009 may boost Romney's fortunes. Romney's consecutive Iowa Caucus losses indicates the state's social conservative multitude isn't sold on him, but those same people are sold on holding Justice David Wiggins accountable for his role in the court's unpopular opinion decreeing marriage for homosexuals. In 2010, Iowans made history by voting to fire three of Wiggins' peers in a retention election for the first time. The liberal polling firm Public Policy Polling recently found a majority of Iowans now poised to oust Wiggins as well. Given the nature of the issue threatening the judge's retention, it's reasonable to assume a majority of the people motivated to vote against him would also vote against Obama. Ironically, the very same social conservatives Romney has often shunned could use this retention election to propel him to victory.
Wildcard #3
Along with Ohio and Florida, Virginia is considered among the states that will ultimately decide who wins the Electoral College. With polls showing Florida leaning Romney andOhio leaning Obama, Virginia could be the state that decides the election.
Enter former Congressman Virgil Goode, another third party's presidential nominee.
The conservative Constitution Party's Goode has been elected to represent Virginia in the U.S. Congress as a Democrat, a Republican and an Independent. Not many people can say that, and it also makes him a rarity among third-party candidates because he's actually won multiple major elections and has high name identification in his home state.
If right-leaning Goode does better than polls suggest, his voters would most likely come from Romney costing the Republicans Virginia's electoral votes. Most analysts believe if Obama wins Virginia he'll be re-elected.
Steve Deace is a nationally syndicated radio host whose show airs at 9 p.m. each weeknight. You can follow him on Twitter @SteveDeaceShow, or visit his website atstevedeace.com.
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