Arch-rivals shift camp as new alliances are cemented

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MPs Charity Ngilu, Eugene Wamalwa, Uhuru Kenyatta, Najib Balala, Kiema Kilonzo and Musikari Kombo, when they visited Burundi’s President Pierre Nkurunziza on November 7, 2012.   NATION MEDIA GROUP

By BILLY MUIRURI bmuiruri@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted  Sunday, November 11  2012 at  00:30

IN SUMMARY

• The inclusion of Water minister Charity Ngilu in Mr Kenyatta’s line-up has left her Ukambani rival, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, with few options, one of them being to re-unite with Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
• At the Coast, Environment minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere has declared he would rather defect from the G7 alliance than share a table with former Tourism minister Najib Balala.
• And in Western, Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa’s admission to Mr Kenyatta’s high table has quashed any chance of bringing Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi on board.

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Cut-throat competition for advantage in the creation of pre-election alliances is once again forcing well-known rivals to opposite sides of the political divide.

The mathematical calculations that indicate no single candidate can meet the constitutional threshold to win the presidency has forced top contenders for the post to grapple with teams that seem to represent regional interests.

The fast-emerging coalition headed by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta is the latest alliance that seems to have scattered erstwhile foes.

The inclusion of Water minister Charity Ngilu in Mr Kenyatta’s line-up has left her Ukambani rival, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, with few options, one of them being to re-unite with Prime Minister Raila Odinga. (READ: Is Kalonzo joining Raila?)

At the Coast, Environment minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere has declared he would rather defect from the G7 alliance than share a table with former Tourism minister Najib Balala. (READ: Cracks in G7 as allies in Coast reject Balala)

And in Western, Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa’s admission to Mr Kenyatta’s high table has quashed any chance of bringing Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi on board. (READ: Uhuru hosts allies over coalition deal)

Political analysts say the politics of displacement has gained more currency in the post-Moi era where, in 2002, there was an attempt to show “the face of Kenya”.

“The so-called face of Kenya is about who is representing which tribe at the cake-cutting table. That is why many politicians would want to dominate their region’s politics,” said Prof Kibiwott Kurgat of United States International University.

But in 2002 fate seemed to throw most rivals on the same camp after circumstances forced them to join the anti-Moi campaign. Mrs Ngilu has never joined Mr Musyoka’s camp.

In 2002, she was a key member of the National Alliance of Kenya (NAK) crafted by Mr Kibaki, the late Kijana Wamalwa and herself.

Mr Musyoka joined the resultant Narc through the Liberal Democratic Party. The two also went their separate ways in the 2005 referendum, with Mrs Ngilu supporting the draft and Mr Musyoka opposing it.

In 2007, Mrs Ngilu supported Mr Odinga’s bid for the top seat even when Mr Musyoka had offered himself for the presidency after an acrimonious falling out with Mr Odinga.

In Western Kenya, the politics revolves around the Bukusu of Bungoma and Trans Nzoia and the Maragoli, mostly from Vihiga and Kakamega.

Prof Macharia Munene, an analyst, says the Bukusu are more traditional than the Maragoli, and the latter got education early.

“Both Mr Wamalwa and Mr Mudavadi are struggling to be the Western king. That is why they have been at each other’s necks.”

The two communities have never voted for the same presidential candidate, save for 2002. In 1992, Mr Mudavadi’s backyard supported Kenneth Matiba’s Ford Asili, and Bungoma owned Ford Kenya.

In 1997, they chose President Moi while the Bukusu had their own Kijana Wamalwa. In 2007, the votes were split, with Bungoma voting for President Kibaki while Kakamega and Vihiga supported Mr Odinga.

Ngari Gituku, a communications analyst with the Kenya Leadership Institute, says regional supremacy is the fulcrum on which Kenya’s politics is being played. He asserts that the new reality of coalition-building measures one’s worth by how many votes one can bring to the table.

“These votes are assumed to be your community’s. So the more the stranglehold you have on your community, the bigger the role you are assigned to play in a coalition,” Mr Gituku said.

In the Rift Valley, the factionalism is best exhibited by the political differences that exist between former President Moi and Eldoret North MP William Ruto.

According to Prof Kurgat, the two will always be at logger- heads because Mr Moi thinks he made Mr Ruto, who has not been “grateful”. This teacher-student mentality means that Mr Moi will never follow a political route charted by Mr Ruto.

“Mr Moi will do all he can to frustrate Mr Ruto’s politics. Even after the 2007 debacle, Mr Moi would say, ‘See where the young man has taken you. I told you ...’”

Both Prof Kurgat and Prof Munene agree that rivals tend to brand others as cowards. The branding is what has defined the Wamalwa-Mudavadi turf wars and the acrimony exhibited between Mrs Ngilu and the VP.

“Both Mr Mudavadi and Mr Musyoka have a “coward” label. This was also the case in 1992 during the Matiba-Kibaki rivalry when Kibaki got the “coward” label,” Prof Munene said.

In such rivalries, the don added, the “cowards” have always had the last laugh rather than the dare-devils because they are cautious and tend to be preferred by the powers-that-be.

The displacement notion is not just a recipe of the high-stakes political game. Lower levels of political competition are quickly producing politicians who would rather lose than join the winning teams of their rivals.

In Nairobi, for example, the last two elections have pitted former Sports minister Maina Kamanda against Embakasi MP Ferdinand Waititu over who is the city’s kingpin.

The Meru region is slowly waking up to the rivalry between Kiraitu Murungi and Central Imenti MP Gitobu Imanyara; both are seeking the Senate seat.

In the battle over who is king in Kisii region, it is unlikely that Sam Ongeri and Chris Obure will walk the same political path.