What I Told Raila Now Haunting Him

What I Told Raila Now Haunting Him

THURSDAY, 02 AUGUST 2012 14:24 BY WYCLIFFE MUGA

Something that all political pundits yearn for, though they will rarely admit it, is the opportunity to point out that they foresaw a certain outcome, way back, at a time when almost everyone else was blind to this possibility. In simple words, the dedicated political pundit likes to be able to say, “I told you so” in reference to an event which very few saw coming.

One example is that of the celebrated political commentator, Mutahi Ngunyi, who had once speculated – long before the 2007 presidential election – that it was not likely that Kibaki would hand over power to a successful political rival quite as easily as President Daniel arap Moi had done in 2002.

Of course, to consider this insight as a perceptive forecast, you would have to believe that President Kibaki actually lost in 2007. The country is divided down the middle on the true outcome of that election, so there is no point rehashing it here. But there are any number of Kenyans, who believe that as the post-election violence started in earnest in January 2008 Mr Ngunyi, had every right to say at that time, “I told you so”.

I have a personal example too of this: back in 2002, at a time when much of the nation was celebrating the formation of “National Rainbow Alliance” as it was then called, it was fairly clear that only a miracle could prevent the leading presidential candidate of that time, Mwai Kibaki, from beating Uhuru Kenyatta (the Moi government’s candidate) by a landslide.

And at that time, the current PM Raila Odinga, had established a great name for himself as a kingmaker, for having made his famous declaration “Kibaki Tosha” at a time when it was by no means clear that Kibaki had the joint opposition parties’ support sewn up. While all and sundry were acclaiming Raila as a political genius, I announced in an opinion column (October 26th 2002) that Raila had just made the worst mistake of his political life, and that he would live to bitterly regret his role as kingmaker. This was not mere guesswork on my part. There was solid historical evidence to suggest that the Kenyan politician who sets out to help some other politician to ascend to the presidency, invariably lives to regret it.

First, was the pre-independence political maneuvering in which Jaramogi Oginga Odinga (Raila’s father) made what was, for those days, a dangerous announcement: that there could be no question of independence without Jomo Kenyatta, who was then in detention, allegedly for having organized the Mau Mau insurrection against British colonial rule.

In the short-term, it got Jaramogi Odinga the vice presidency, when Kenyatta became president in 1964. But just a few years later, Jaramogi Odinga was first sidelined within the ruling party Kanu, and then placed in preventative detention for many years. It was not until the return to multiparty democracy in 1992 – some two decades later – that Jaramogi Odinga was able to rejoin the mainstream of Kenyan politics.

President Daniel arap Moi's tenure produced much the same pattern: by all accounts, if it had not been for the Kenyatta-era Attorney General, Charles Njonjo, not only would Moi never have ascended to the presidency, but he very likely would have been assassinated by his political rivals of the time, who had set up the shadowy "Ngoroko" militia for just such a purpose.

Yet, once he was securely settled in State House, a few years after taking over, the first order of business for Moi, was finding a rationale for expelling Njonjo from public life and keeping him out. And Raila’s fate during Kibaki's first term as president, was really no different: first there was the discarding of the political pact of 2002, which was to have seen Kibaki serve for just one term, and Raila appointed Prime Minister; then after the 2005 referendum on the new constitution, Raila was sacked from the cabinet; finally came the 2007 general election, which Raila has always claimed that he won, but of course he was not the one who was sworn in as president in 2008.

Most recently, Raila claimed in an interview that the National Security Intelligence Service (NSIS) is actively working to ensure that he does not get to succeed president Kibaki. Given he is the PM, this can only mean that he believes State House, is using the NSIS to frustrate his presidential ambitions. All this, allows me to say to the PM: “I told you so.”