G7 changes battle plan

By Francis Ngige

Several leaders in the race to State House appear to be making fresh attempts to put issues ahead of personalities in the upcoming General Election.

This change of tack appears to have been inspired by signs of a backlash against negative campaigning and personal attacks. It has renewed hope the race will be as much about solutions to Kenya’s challenges as it is about ethnic alliances and personality cults. However, few of the presidential hopefuls are asking tough questions about their rivals’ plans or grand promises at this stage.

Leaders associated with the informal G7 Alliance have abandoned attacks on Prime Minister Raila Odinga after it began to appear to be working in his favour. Several of them had been pushing a ‘generation change’ argument in their pre-campaign rallies, portraying the 67-year-old PM as out of touch and “living in the rear view mirror”.

Others attacked his reform credentials, accusing him of preaching water and drinking wine. To these tactics, the ODM leader and his allies responded with the charge that his rivals were weak and had chosen to gang up and make personal attacks against the strongest horse in the race. This was such an effective argument, one of the G7-allied hopefuls, Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa, took to distancing himself from the alleged gang.

These negative campaigning tactics had their roots in an even more unpleasant mud-fight that flared about a year ago, when the PM responded to sustained attacks by his rivals with choice epithets at a rally at Nairobi’s Kamukunji grounds. He accused unnamed political rivals of being land-grabbers, alcoholics and bhang smokers.

Two of them promptly responded in kind at the same venue, leading to calls for civility from various quarters. While the insults were held back in subsequent rallies, the battle has remained about the personal attributes of this and that presidential aspirant, with the front-runner often in the sights of those seeking to weaken his chances at the March 4, electoral contest.

Interestingly, the PM is now under fire from two former aides he fell out with. His opponents, who may yet return to the reform and generational change arguments should the public mood change, are glad to have them do the job.

To prove they want more than just to “stop Raila from ascending to the Presidency”; top G7 leaders are giving potential voters a taste of their plans. Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy PMs Musalia Mudavadi and Uhuru Kenyatta, and Eldoret North MP William Ruto are keen to demonstrate how differently the country would be governed under their watch.

In this respect, they are following in the footsteps of other presidential hopefuls like Gichugu MP Martha Karua, former minister Raphael Tuju, Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth, Gachoka’s Mutava Musyimi, and former PS James ole Kiyiapi.

Political strategist Peter Kagwanja says aspirants have no choice but to “travel the ideology route”.

“I told some of the aspirants that the initial plan of anybody, but Raila would backfire since it was giving him ammunition,” he says.

Fellow political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi has also previously argued the G7 was bound to drop any “anti-Raila” approach and embrace a “counter-Raila strategy” that articulates what they stand for to win voters.

Political capital

Perhaps to exploit voters’ concern at the zero-sum duels, Mudavadi has been portraying himself as “a safe pair of hands”, offering stability with his candidature. This positioning appears to have been fairly successful with opinion polls suggesting Mudavadi is second choice candidate for most potential voters.

Wamalwa’s caution that he would not be party to any group whose main agenda is to block Raila, may have been a response to the success of this strategy or ODM’s response to the alleged ‘ganging up’.

“I am a member of G7 and if the main agenda is to block Raila Odinga from ascending to power then count me out,” Wamalwa had said.

Observers have watched the tide turn from the days just after Uhuru and Ruto returned from pre-trial hearings at the International Criminal Court and embarked on a series of ‘prayer rallies’. They point to the PM’s knack to make political capital out of his rivals’ schemes as another reason for the change of tack. The restrain may also arise from the increased surveillance by, among others, the National Cohesion and Integration Commission, which could scuttle political ambitions with hate speech charges.

Whatever the reason, aspirants now focus on issues rather than personal attacks and mudslinging. Top on the agenda of most of the aspirants is a pledge to make Kenya a 24-hour economy, actualise devolution and create jobs for the youth. The debate has yet to pick up on whether any of them has a credible plan to make the pledges reality.

A review of recent opinion polls suggests voters want politicians to tackle a slowing economy, infrastructure, high cost of living, and unemployment.

Uhuru and Mudavadi have indicated they would be keen to continue with President Kibaki’s economic policies and infrastructural development. Kalonzo has pledged to focus on job creation, fighting corruption, and tackling poverty.

Reform issues also rank highly for presidential aspirants. Raila and Kalonzo have promised a new dawn with the implementation of the new Constitution.

Karua and Kenneth have focused on their track records, with the Narc-Kenya leader zeroing in on ending corruption and ensuring integrity in leadership. She has pledged her Government will ensure equity to address poverty.

Kenneth, who intends to run for president on Kenya National Congress ticket, is counting on his record of performance, citing exemplary management of his Constituency Development Fund.

When Ruto toured Mt Kenya East recently, he pledged his Government would implement measures to attract at least 10 million tourists, pointing to London’s (30 million visitors), Malaysia’s (23 million) and Paris’ (72 million), as examples.

On a campaign stop at the Coast, Raila pledged to address landlessness, unemployment, and equity in sharing national resources. The PM has projected his candidature as reform-driven and he describes himself as belonging to the group of liberators who fought for reforms.

Former MP Koigi wa Wamwere said most of the aspirants had realised that Kenyans were tired of the old brand of politics.

“These are the kind of politics we need in a democracy where issues become the major selling point not empty rhetoric,” said Wamwere.