FILE |NATION From left: ODM ‘Pentagon’ members William Ruto, Raila Odinga, Joe Nyaga, Musalia Mudavadi and Najib Balala shortly before they left for the Moi International Sports Centre Kasarani for the nomination of a flagbearer in 2007.
By JULIUS SIGEI jsigei@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Friday, April 13 2012 at 22:00
Posted Friday, April 13 2012 at 22:00
IN SUMMARY
- The giant party’s ‘pentagon’ only has a few members left and the strong presence it enjoyed in 2007-2008 is on the decline after many obstacles it has faced
The looming departure of ODM deputy leader Musalia Mudavadi from the country’s largest political party would leave it deeply dented as it positions itself for the next General Election.
His exit, were it to happen, is just the latest of a series of setbacks the party has faced since 2008 when it commanded a parliamentary majority and a huge countrywide presence.
Mr Mudavadi is the only pentagon member still with Prime Minister Raila Odinga after the other five left or developed cold feet.
Eldoret North MP William Ruto differed acrimoniously with his party boss in early 2008 over Mau Forest evictions, which the PM was spearheading, and the manner of trying suspects of post-election violence.
Former Tourism Minister Najib Balala, who had joined Mr Ruto in his rebellion, but later backtracked, was sacked three weeks ago after coming out to criticise Mr Odinga and supported Mr Mudavadi, who is seeking to wrestle the party’s presidential ticket from the latter.
Water Minister Charity Ngilu has been sending mixed signals while Nominated MP Joseph Nyaga, who is the only ODM MP in Mt Kenya region, has lately drummed up support for Mr Kenyatta.
Parliamentary majority
ODM won 99 parliamentary seats in the 2007 General Election, which gave it a majority in Parliament after joining forces with small affiliate parties like Mrs Ngilu’s Narc.
Mr Ruto left with more than 20 MPs from the Kalenjin community, which voted for Mr Odinga overwhelmingly in 2007.
A number of MPs from Nothern Kenya like Dujis’ Aden Duale, North Horr’s Chachu Ganya and Wajir West’s Mohammed Mohammud also allied themselves with Mr Ruto.
ODM’s parliamentary majority has also been whittled down by successive by-election losses.
While it won three out of five by-elections in early 2008, it went on to lose or fail to wrest most of the seats from its rival Party of National Unity.
Immediately after the swearing in of the 10th Parliament, Embakasi MP Mellitus Mugabe Were, was shot at close range outside his home in Nairobi, while David arap Too of Ainamoi constituency in Kericho was killed by a police officer in Eldoret Town.
ODM managed to recapture the Ainamoi seat, which was won by Mr Too’s brother Benjamin Lang’at.
But while the party was campaigning in Ainamoi, it lost two other MPs in a plane crash: Roads Minister Kipkalya Kones (Bomet) and Home Affairs assistant minister Lorna Laboso (Sotik).
The party weathered a stiff challenge to recapture both seats through Mr Kones’ widow, Beatrice Kones and Dr Joyce Laboso, a sister of Lorna Laboso. At the time anti-Raila discontent in the region was just beginning to brew.
Recaptured seat
In May 2009, ODM lost Shinyalu MP Charles Lilechi Lugano who succumbed to an illness, but the seat was recaptured through Justus Kizito Mugali.
ODM also won the Bomachoge parliamentary seat through Simeon Ogari. The seat was previously held by Ford-People’s Joel Onyancha.
ODM also won back Starehe through Housing assistant minister Margaret Wanjiru.
But it failed to win the Embakasi seat, which it lost to Ferdinand Waititu. It also did not win Matuga, Ikolomani, Kamukunji, Kitutu Masaba and Makadara where party members had successfully petitioned PNU’s win in court.
The party did not present a candidate in the Wajir South by-election.
While most of the Western Province MPs have not come out strongly to publicly pitch for Mr Mudavadi, it is understood that the grassroots are increasingly getting hostile to any lack of enthusiastic support from local MPs.
“You now cannot speak here (Western) without declaring your stand. You will be heckled out of the podium if you don’t appear to support the DPM. MPs here have no choice but to support Mr Mudavadi,” said Shinyalu MP Justus Kizito.
Eighteen out of the 24 MPs in the region were elected on an ODM ticket and a Mudavadi euphoria could see them leave the PM’s stable.
Mr Odinga has a long list of allies-turned foes that he has kicked out of the government since 2008. They include Mr Balala, Mr Ruto, Mogotio MP Hellen Sambili, former assistant ministers Charles Keter, Jackson Kiptanui, Mr Mohamud and Mr Duale.
At the centre of the dispute between Mr Odinga and Mr Mudavadi is whether a party leader ought to be the automatic presidential contender.
Article 6.2.1 of the ODM constitution states that the party leader shall be the presidential candidate in subsequent elections.
But Mr Mudavadi wants the constitution amended to allow other leaders to contest.
He also wants the rules changed to have nominations carried out in the counties arguing that the National Delegates Conference is expensive and not in tandem with the spirit of devolution.
No longer at ease
Officials close to the DPM revealed other reasons why Mr Mudavadi was no longer at ease with his boss. They include an alleged plot to portray the DPM as a political lightweight in Western Province.
“We have evidence of a plot to project Mr Mudavadi as a weakling who cannot even deliver in his own backyard,” said an official who requested not to be named.
Other complaints against the party came from the Council of Imams and Preachers of Kenya and the Supreme Council of Kenya Muslims.
It is also interesting to note that Nominated MP Sheikh Ahmed Dor, who has hitherto been close to the PM, came out strongly to condemn him over Mr Balala’s sacking.
Mr Ruto has since joined hands with Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa and Mr Kenyatta in the G7 Alliance.
Mr Odinga has for long been the man most favoured by opinion polls to succeed President Kibaki.
Mr Odinga has for long been the man most favoured by opinion polls to succeed President Kibaki.
His position as the co-principal in the coalition government and the image he has painted as a reformer, have appeared to give him leverage over his competitors.
But today, his political career is hanging in the balance ahead of the elections.
“The unravelling of the pentagon paints the picture of a King whose court has emptied. I doubt if Mr Odinga will re-engineer himself from his latest self-inflicted series of moves,” says former Subukia MP Koigi wa Wamwere.
Mr Odinga’s support of a December date also appears to have alienated him from his allies like Roads Minister Franklin Bett, his East African Co-operation counterpart Musa Sirma and assistant minister Margaret Wanjiru, who prefer elections to be held next year.
Mr Odinga’s situation has been compounded by reports that his loyalists have begun embracing a possible Mudavadi candidacy as a way of getting a political lifeline.
There are eight Kalenjin MPs who still support Mr Odinga. They are Mr Bett, Dr Sally Kosgei and Prof Margaret Kamar; assistant ministers Magerer Lang’at, Beatrice Kones and Julius Murgor as well as MPs Joyce Laboso and Wilson Litole.
“They are calculating that were Mr Ruto to back the Sabatia MP, then they would not get a backlash from voters who consider Mr Mudavadi a betrayer,” said political analyst and cultural researcher Bill Ruto.
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