A Win-Win Move By Musalia Mudavadi

THURSDAY, 08 MARCH 2012 00:13 BY WYCLIFFE MUGA

It’s been many years since I last sat down to a game of chess. But what I recall clearly about this board game, which is generally considered to be a test of complex planning and strategic skills, is that the essential thing is to take a strongly defensive position, and then wait for your opponent to make a mistake which opens the way for a check-mate.

Maybe there is much more to chess than that. But in politics, that is more or less the key strategic requirement. Now in current Kenyan politics, no political player has attended to this quite as effectively as the Deputy Prime Minister, Musalia Mudavadi. At first glance, his bold step in challenging the PM Raila Odinga for the ODM party presidential nominations appears to be pure political suicide.

Consider the facts: First, while Raila has dominated all opinion polls since the 2007 General Election, and not once slipped from being the front-runner, Mudavadi has barely ever managed more than 2% or 3% to Raila’s 30% to 40% in these polls. Why would any party nominate a man who barely breaks the surface into the top ranks of leading presidential candidates over one who is the clear national favourite?

Then there is the fact that apart from the 1997 presidential election (which was really more an exercise in consolidating the Luo vote under his iron grip, than a serious run for the presidency) Raila has invariably been on the winning side of any electoral contests, whether General Elections, or referendums. (We can call the 2007 General Election a statistical draw and leave it at that).

Mudavadi on the other hand, managed the rare feat of losing his Sabatia seat in 2002, while he was actually a sitting Vice President. And, barely a year ago, was not able to impose his will in his own political backyard, when the MP for Ikolomani, Dr Bonny Khalwale, defeated the ODM party candidate in a by-election, despite Mudavadi “camping in Ikolomani” to try and ensure Dr Khalwale’s defeat. It is inconceivable that in any by-election in his ‘Luo Nyanza’ backyard, Raila should openly campaign for any candidate and yet see that candidate defeated.

However Mudavadi has one big factor in his favour, which more than balances any negatives his opponents may bring up. There is this central piece of Kenyan political psychology, which explains why some candidates end up as unquestioned ‘regional powerbrokers’, and yet others, despite attaining high political office, never get to be more than ‘influential cabinet ministers’. It seems to me that most Kenyan tribal communities live in fear of being somehow ‘colonised’ by bigger tribes or richer tribes or even a coalition of other tribes. That a dread of being 'recolonised' shapes the communal psychology of most Kenyan tribes.

At independence, the political leaders of “small tribes” in the Coast and the Rift Valley Provinces, had no difficulty in persuading their supporters to coalesce around KADU, as a means of resisting the dreaded Kikuyu/Luo hegemony of those days, said to provide the power base of KANU.

Then again, for many years, the Maasai leader William Ole Ntimama has been extremely influential solely on account of his unyielding opposition to Kikuyu and Kalenjin small-scale farmers being allowed to take over the grazing lands of the Maasai, even if this was done between a willing buyer and a willing seller.

In 2002, most of the country supported Mwai Kibaki primarily because the rival presidential candidate, his fellow-Kikuyu Uhuru Kenyatta, was seen as a Trojan horse for the perpetuation of Kalenjin political hegemony. And what gave force to Raila Odinga’s 2007 presidential campaign was that he was seen by many non-Central Kenya communities, as the key to stopping the continuation of Kikuyu domination in the corridors of power.

In short, to rise above the ‘influential cabinet minister’ level and get to the top of likely presidential candidates or ‘regional power brokers’ you absolutely have to be seen as a man of resolute courage, who is willing to defy the odds and challenge entrenched interests. It is in this light, that Mudavadi’s current political posture, places him in a win-win situation: even if he loses the ODM presidential nomination, he has already won his place among the top ranks of presidential candidates. Any doubts about his ability to engage in political combat, and to take on powerful political opponents, have been blown away. Beyond this point, there can be no doubt that he belongs at the very top of the Kenyan political totem pole.