Could Mudavadi be ex-president Moi’s project?

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By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted  Saturday, February 18  2012 at  19:54

IN SUMMARY

• He has every right to challenge Raila. But why — and for whom — is he rocking the boat from within?

I am very worried about two things. The first is a certain eerie silence by former President Daniel arap Moi. It’s not a good thing when Mr Moi goes quiet because we don’t know what he’s thinking, or planning.

The second is the decision by Local Government minister Musalia Mudavadi to gun for the ODM presidential ticket against PM Raila Odinga.

Methinks the two things are connected. Call me paranoid, but I smell a rat in Peking. Mr Mudavadi has every democratic right to challenge Mr Odinga. But context is everything in politics. Why — and for whom — is he rocking the ODM boat? He’s got to know that a “nasty fight” between him and Mr Odinga could kill ODM.

Let me show you my cards. Kenyan political parties exist mostly only on paper. They are personality-driven. They pivot on ethnic loyalties and are usually a constellation of several tribal elites. Importantly, each party must have a single unassailable messiah.

Unlike ODM, this is PNU’s problem — no messiah. That’s why no Kenyan party has ever survived a true internal competition for power. Think Ford, Ford-K, and the original ODM-K which Mr Odinga and VP Kalonzo Musyoka put asunder. A famous axiom says that two rats cannot live in the same hole.

Could Mr Mudavadi do to Mr Odinga what Mr Musyoka did to Agwambo? My crystal ball tells me to get my popcorn ready. This movie will be a rollercoaster.

One view is that ODM, with Mr Odinga as the next President, gives Kenya the best chance to break with impunity and kleptocracy. That’s because Kenyan politics has been defined by two diametrically contending ideological forces. Put differently, Kenya’s political class breaks into two elite factions.

The first is conservative, illiberal, and right-of-centre. This is the Kenyatta-Moi-Kibaki faction. It owns the State, and has always ruled. The second is progressive, liberal, and left-of-centre. This is the Odinga-JM Kariuki-Pinto faction. This faction has never ruled.

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Mr Odinga’s triumph in this year’s election would put this faction in power for the first time. This is what the G7/KKK faction is determined to stop.

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, VP Musyoka and Internal Security minister George Saitoti are the prefects of the conservative order. It falls on their shoulders to stop Mr Odinga to preserve their faction’s chokehold on power.

Their fellow conspirators are Party of Action’s Raphael Tuju, Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa, and other G7/KKK/PNU courtiers. This group has sworn that Mr Odinga will be elected president over their dead bodies. They predict doom and damnation for their faction — and its moneyed elite — should Jaramogi’s son ascend to power.

That’s why the 2012 election is a do-or-die proposition for them. Not even The Hague trials for crimes against humanity have sobered them. They must stop Mr Odinga.

This brings me to Mr Mudavadi and Mr Moi. Mr Mudavadi is arguably the most important Moi orphan to stick with Mr Odinga. Except for Agriculture minister Sally Kosgei, no other significant Moi orphan is still with Mr Odinga. The vast majority of Moi orphans are either with VP Musyoka, Mr Kenyatta, or Mr Ruto. That’s the grouping called G7/KKK/PNU.

Could Mr Mudavadi wreck ODM — and kill Mr Odinga’s chances — and then trot over to the G7/KKK/PNU alliance? This could be more probable than possible. The PNU/G7/KKK group would love for nothing more than to pay Mr Odinga in kind. Remember he wrecked Mr Kenyatta’s dream in 2002 by “cannibalising” Kanu from within and joining Narc to say “Kibaki Tosha”.

True godfather

There’s only one true godfather who is the spiritual leader of the Kenyatta-Moi-Kibaki faction. It’s not President Mwai Kibaki or Mr Kenyatta. It’s the one and only “professor of politics” – Mr Moi. He’s their lodestar. That’s why we call them Moi orphans.

Don’t listen to pundits who claim that Mr Moi is passé, washed up, or even irrelevant. Don’t believe the talk that he’s been supplanted by either Mr Ruto or Mr Kenyatta. He’s still the “daddy” of them all.

Mr Kibaki never wanted, nor sought, the role of this nomenklatura’s godfather. It’s the wily and crafty Mr Moi who is the puppeteer behind the scenes. That’s why I believe Mr Mudavadi could be Mr Moi’s project. Mark my words.

Before the election, virtually all the key Moi orphans will come home to “daddy”. They are already circling their wagons. Both Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto may be knocked out of the presidential race by The Hague trials. But their faction is very much in the game.

They have the money and the numbers. The only question is whether they will be able to agree on a single flag-bearer to face Mr Odinga. This is where I believe Mr Moi comes into the picture. Daddy – call him Godfather – will call his progeny to order. They will be orphans no more. Mr Mudavadi could be the most important son to come home to “daddy”.

Of course I could be wrong, and Mr Mudavadi could just be exercising his democratic rights. If so, I think Mr Mudavadi is a student of neither history nor political science.

He wouldn’t play Russian roulette with ODM’s chances of electoral success if he was. That’s why he must not be an unwitting pawn in the PNU/G7/KKK arsenal.

This is the reason Secretary of State Hillary Clinton isn’t challenging President Barack Obama. It’s the surest way to give the White House back to Republicans. Divided political parties don’t win — they lose elections. That’s why ODM must put its house in order pronto.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at SUNY Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.