Sunday, July 24, 2011

Raila Odinga's dilemma



Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Coast leaders arrive on Lamu Island aboard a speedboat on Saturday. The PM is expected to commission a National Hospital Insurance Fund speedboat ambulance and address a public rally. Maarufu Mohamed/Standard
Court action against the Orange Democratic Party rebel wing of Eldoret North MP William Ruto presents Prime Minister Raila Odinga a dilemma in his quest to succeed President Kibaki.


By Alex Ndegwa and Vitalis Kimutai
Court action against the Orange Democratic Party rebel wing of Eldoret North MP William Ruto presents Prime Minister Raila Odinga a dilemma in his quest to succeed President Kibaki.
Raila faces two choices whose consequences could be equally disastrous: Force his rivals to mini-elections and risk humiliation or ignore them and they would continue wrecking his political vehicle to State House from within.
Talks during ODM Parliamentary Group meeting last Thursday, pointed to the fact Raila is walking a tight rope. This is attested to by the all-important question that the party leader asked the 45 MPs present: "Is the party prepared for mass by-elections?"
Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Coast leaders arrive on Lamu Island aboard a speedboat on Saturday. The PM is expected to commission a National Hospital Insurance Fund speedboat ambulance and address a public rally. Maarufu Mohamed/Standard
Raila’s apprehension is discernible given that except for Dujis, the other constituencies are viewed as Ruto’s support base.
This raises the possibility of either incumbents retaining their seats, or some losing to newcomers allied to Ruto.
After coming too close to the presidency in 2007, Raila is cautious not to make mistakes that could complicate his third attempt for high office at a time opinion polls rate him the most preferred presidential aspirant. Yet forestalling a showdown with his rivals is not entirely Raila’s call because the fate now lies with court or Ruto may as well call his estranged party’s bluff.
"They can go to court, go up and down, left or right but we have rejected ODM and everything to do with it," Ruto said on Friday, in Baringo.
He said if they were re-elected on another ticket, Raila’s claim to the premier’s post would be threatened. ODM has scheduled another PG meeting for Wednesday, to assess the case filed by two party members.
The case has added fuel to the party’s incessant internal feuding, with the renegade Rift Valley brigade allied to Ruto, one of Raila’s deputy party leaders.
Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi dismisses ODM’s latest attempt to expel Ruto and allies as "showbiz and catwalk" by ODM party hawks eager to show Raila their loyalty.
"Raila is not interested in by-elections. His main interest is the presidency and even if it meant sacrificing the party to achieve that he would do so. He knows the sideshows around the party are unhelpful to his overall mission," Ngunyi observes.
He adds: "It would be foolhardy to wield the cane at this late hour. ODM should have cracked the whip a year or two ago. To do so now is a waste of time. Ruto is ready to take a walk because he has nothing to lose except his ODM chain."
Ngunyi argues Ruto left ODM in "soul and spirit" a long time ago, terming the belated effort to kick him out as being of "absolutely no value" except nuisance.
When contacted, the Ruto camp kept up its hard line position daring ODM to press with the case, declaring they would not even fight it and taunting rivals for a showdown at the ballot.
MPs Charles Keter, Isaac Ruto, Joshua Kutuny, David Koech, Sammy Mwaita, Luka Kigen, Jackson Kiptanui, and Fred Kapondi told The Standard on Sunday that their rivals wanted to run rings around them to slow their march.
Mosop MP David Koech, who is the Rift Valley Parliamentary Group secretary, however, emphasised a statement the group has adopted as a defensive strategy to stick to ODM even as they plot to collapse it.
"UDM and ODM are corporate partners, that is clearly spelt out. The attempts to kick us out of ODM over claims we are rebels is a struggle in futility," he said.
Mogotio MP Hellen Sambili was elected on an UDM ticket, but Raila appointed her to his ODM-wing of the coalition Cabinet.
Coalition advisor in Raila’s office, Miguna Miguna, has said the action was taken after the MPs failed to "voluntarily leave the party" and after the Registrar of Political Parties failed to take action against them.
The case filed at the Nairobi High Court seeks to eject Ruto, Duale, Keter, Isaac Ruto and Kutuny from the party.
At Orange House, according to an MP in attendance, Raila said the party leadership had not engineered the case, adding that the petitioners, Mpuru Aburi and Kepher Odongo, acted as party members.
Quite apart from the dilemma on whether to push Ruto and his team out, Raila has to contend with ODM hardliners and moderates.
Moderate MPs reportedly argued the case could portray the party, as dictatorial and urged for its withdrawal lest it creates "political martyrs". However, hawkish members said it’s time the stick was wielded against dissenters. They said a retreat could portray the party as timid.
Lands Minister James Orengo and Kisumu Town West MP Olago-Aluoch reportedly stressed withdrawing the case could boomerang and be misconstrued that the party "fears these guys".
Orengo cautioned if the party has to back down then it should buy time so it’s not left with egg on the face. He suggested if the rebels don’t denounce ODM in the responding affidavit it could go easy on them.
Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi reportedly told members the de-nomination of councillors disloyal to ODM would go on.
Ruto held talks with about 20 MPs at Parliament Buildings last week to explore their options.
One option they are considering is a mass walkout from ODM. This is designed to precipitate a crisis of Raila’s legitimacy as PM.
Ngunyi says the PM’s wars with Ruto could prove costly to his run for State House because his erstwhile ally may outfox him.
"Raila is very good at fighting a force bigger than him. But when faced with a smaller opponent he tends to get clumsy," Ngunyi says.
Isaac Ruto termed the case a scheme by desperate leaders in ODM to frustrate their political activities. "They want to ensure they keep us busy with court cases in the hope we would not have time to get in touch with the grassroots. Such schemes would fail."
Kutuny likened the latest bid to eject them to attempting to burn a house with hot water.
He added: "Nothing will stop us from moving forward with our agenda. We have clearly stated where we want to go, and no one will stop us. Not even court cases."
Koech charged: "Initially, we thought the people who went to court did so on their own, but it is now clear ODM top leadership is behind them."
Keiyo South’s Kiptanui quipped ODM is giving them political mileage with court cases. "Even when we do not want publicity, they ensure we are in the headlines."
Mwaita of Baringo Central said: "They have realised that Ruto’s political star has been rising months to the next General Election while Raila has lost grip in the Rift Valley."
At the PG Roads Minister Franklin Bett and Assistant Minister Magerer Langat reportedly appealed for restrain, saying the party still enjoys support in the Rift Valley.

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