Kibaki's remarks throw contest for presidency wide open

By Stephen Makabila President Kibaki’s hint that he would not pick a successor is likely to affect key members of the Grand Coalition Government who are angling to succeed him.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga, his co-principal in the coalition, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, his principal deputy, and Deputy Prime Minister, Uhuru Kenyatta, who has been touted as his successor in central Kenya, may have to re-think their strategies for their presidential run.
Head of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of Nairobi, Adams Oloo, says Kibaki does not want to endorse a successor because he does not want a rebellion in his own party and beyond.
Strong president "His move will have some positive impact on his last year in office because no one is going to be anointed. No one is going to be annoyed for being bypassed," added Dr Oloo.
Oloo, however, argues key presidential contenders will continue keeping close to Kibaki, in the hope that he may silently, but not publicly, endorse them.
"He will remain a strong president and leave office on a strong standpoint, depending on how he navigates constitutional implementation," added Oloo.
Frank Matanga, a political scientist at Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, says presidential elections would be tough if Kibaki respects his word.
"Without State backing for anyone of them, it would be a tough race and Kibaki may retire with a clean legacy as a democratic leader," added Prof Matanga.
Kibaki, while speaking in Ruiru on Friday, noted it was up to voters to elect a person of their choice as the fourth president.
"I will not be running for office again and it’s upon voters to elect a person of their choice," Kibaki declared, during the burial of Arch-Bishop Samson Mwangi Gaitho of the African Independent Pentecostal Church of Africa.
Matanga, however, cautions that Kibaki has always exhibited some laidback traits and may surprise many by secretly backing his preferred choice.
"He has never been known to be a person who does things openly. He may pull strings from behind the scenes being a politician. Only time will tell if he is genuine," added Matanga.
Kibaki has slightly over one year in office, if the General Election would be held by August next year as stipulated under the new Constitution.
Opinion polls in recent months have put Raila ahead as the most preferred successor, though his rating has been on a downward trend in two recent polls.
In 2002, Raila publicly endorsed ‘Kibaki’s presidential bid, enabling the Othaya MP to win the presidency on a Narc ticket, ending Kanu’s rule spanning four decades.
While Raila has not publicly demanded for support from Kibaki, those in his native Nyanza Province, especially members of the Luo Council of Elders, have urged the Head of State to reciprocate Raila’s 2002 support by declaring him his preferred successor in 2012.
Raila has also in recent days been making foray into central Kenya, going hammer and tongs on proponents of tribally based political alliances and calling on leaders to promote national unity.
But the momentum of his presidential bid has appeared to be slowed by wrangles in ODM, especially Rift Valley rebels led by Eldoret North MP William Ruto. Ruto intends to lead his MPs to UDM, where a court has told him to keep off – for now.
Preferred successorFor Kalonzo, any deputy in a political system is usually the preferred successor according to political scientists. But going by Kibaki’s statement, things may not work out the VP.
A loyalist who recently made it clear presidential decrees are never contested, Kalonzo has remained close to Kibaki’s associates in PNU. His party, ODM-Kenya, has a close working relationship with PNU under the PNU Alliance.
He is also a member of the G-7, which brings together Uhuru, Ruto, Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa, Dujis MP Aden Dualle, and Trade Minister Ali Chirau Mwakwere.
"The problem Kalonzo faces is that there is no unity of purpose between PNU and ODM-Kenya. He was invited as Vice-President to save a situation after the 2007 presidential election," added Oloo.
In his home-turf of Eastern Province, Kalonzo faces challenge from Water Minister Charity Ngilu and Gachoka MP Mutava Musyimi. The two have declared they would run for president.
For Uhuru, his fate in the Kibaki succession would be determined by confirmation of International Criminal Court charges in September.
The list of those eying the presidency in central Kenya has been growing: Gichugu MP Martha Karua and former Kabete MP Paul Muite have launched their bids. Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth has also said he is in the race.