Sunday, May 1, 2011

Succession politics key in impending Cabinet changes

By Stephen MakabilaThe looming Cabinet reshuffle hinted by Prime Minister Raila Odinga has created a lot of anxiety.
Focus is mostly on the fate of suspended Higher Education Minister William Ruto and former Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetang’ula, and their chances of making it back to the Cabinet.
Ruto was cleared of a fraud case against him three weeks ago.
When he announced Ruto’s suspension from the Cabinet last year, President Kibaki had indicated the MP would stay out pending the conclusion of his fraud case. Hellen Sambili, has since then been acting as minister for Higher Education.
Section 62 of the Anti-Corruption and Economic Crimes Act stipulates that "a public officer who is charged with corruption or economic crime shall be suspended at half pay, with effect from the date of the charge."
It further states: "The public officer ceases to be suspended if the proceedings against him are discontinued or if he is acquitted."
And when he hinted at a Cabinet reshuffle, the PM did not comment on the fate of Ruto.
"A Cabinet reshuffle is the work of the Executive and that will be done soon. I do not want to talk about individuals because the country is greater than any individual," he said.
Peter Kagwanja, the President of the African Policy Institute, argues failure to re-appoint Ruto to Cabinet may confirm his claims the corruption case was ‘political persecution’.
"There should be no obstacle for integration of Ruto back to Cabinet because failure to do that would fuel suspicion he has been haunted for political reasons," Prof Kagwanja, who is also a PNU political strategist, said.
Ruto had said after the ruling that his long-standing opinion that the case was a political witch-hunt had been proved right.
"This was not a civil case against me but political persecution. Finally, the truth has come out," said Ruto after the ruling.
Kenya School of Law lecturer, Martin Oloo, says the country should not be sure of a reshuffle.
"It has been a tradition in this country that whenever the PM makes a statement on Cabinet changes, the President, who is the appointing authority in consultation with him (the PM), rarely plays ball," said Mr Oloo.
Oloo however says if a shuffle was to be carried out, Ruto’s re-appointment cannot be automatic.
"Ruto’s re-appointment may depend on the two principals, his ability to execute ministerial duty, which he has done very well in the past, and his loyalty to the party," Oloo said.
He said as things stand now Ruto, who still retains the ODM deputy party leader’s position, is not loyal to the PM, the party leader, and has always indicated he would lead his supporters out of the party.
Failed loyaltyMoi University law lecturer Titus Bittok argues Ruto was not suspended for failed loyalty to his party.
"The reason for his suspension does not exist. Other diversionary issues should not be brought in," Bittok, who is also an advocate of the High Court, says.
Under the National Accord, the PM has to be consulted on all ministerial appointments and dismissals involving members of his party.
It is not clear whether this also applies to the reinstatement of ODM ministers serving suspension.
Kibaki and Raila have however previously picked ministers from the same side of the Coalition Government to replace their suspended colleagues in acting capacity.
In Western Province, Wetang’ula supporters expect him to be reinstated to the Cabinet on the basis of there having been no any evidence to incriminate him.
However, there have been speculations Uhuru Kenyatta and other key G-7 allies want Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa appointed to the Cabinet at the expense of Wetang’ula.
Wetang’ula stepped down amid allegations his ministry had stolen millions of dollars in a dubious land deal in Japan.
Serious dilemmaKagwanja notes there is a serious dilemma on how to approach Western politics after Wamalwa’s differences with Wetang’ula polarised the PNU support in the region.
"Both Wamalwa and Wetang’ula may have equal chances for a Cabinet slot. Wamalwa for his clear mindedness, energy and drive while Wetang’ula for his record as a good performer at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs," Kagwanja said.
However, Oloo argues it would not be surprising for Wamalwa to be appointed purely out of the emerging succession matrix.
"The Uhuru and Ruto team would want someone they can bank on just in case their ICC cases go into full trial. They would rather have the young Wamalwa because they can easily control him," Oloo said.
Oloo however notes Western Province is watching how the Kibaki men are treating Wetang’ula, despite the fact that he played a crucial role in Kibaki’s re-election.
"Kibaki did not stand with Wetang’ula at the hour of need. Not even a senior PNU leader stood with him. They do not want him in their succession matrix because he is his own man with his own resources," Oloo said.

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