Why ODM could be headed to dustbin of history

By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted  Saturday, April 2 2011 at 18:32

In Summary

• Raila and Orange party must avoid ‘worst cancers’ of Kenyan politics if they are to remain progressive

In Prime Minister Raila Odinga, ODM has Kenya’s most dynamic and electrifying politician. Yet the party may be headed for extinction.

Which begs the question — why is the party that almost won it all in 2007 seemingly bound for the morgue?

The party is being cannibalised by both centripetal and centrifugal forces. My crystal ball tells me — and you can take this to the bank — that ODM will be dead within a year unless Mr Odinga completely reinvents it. But that’s easier said than done.

As the centre of ODM’s gravity, Mr Odinga must now think like a true revolutionary and slay its demons. I believe there are four reasons — some benign, others malignant — why ODM could soon die.

Let me get the bad news out of the way. The first reason ODM could go six feet under has to do with perception. History tells us that politics is primarily a “beauty contest”.

In a democracy, the most seductive party carries the day. Parties with great platforms — but boring or arrogant public relations images — don’t win elections.

As a party, ODM’s image has become repellant. Its secretariat — headed by Prof Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o — seems opaque, undemocratic and arrogant.

“Party decisions” are individualised and Mafia-like — not collective. Internal democracy seems alien to ODM. The lack of party elections adds to opacity and the lack of transparency. How can a party that claims to be reformist be so Mubarak-like?

Why has ODM — headed by the country’s most colourful and magnetic politician — become so ugly? This brings me to the second reason why ODM could become history. The party that carried six out of eight provinces in 2007 now looks decidedly tribal.

It has lost massive support in the Rift Valley, Coast, North Eastern and Nairobi provinces. ODM now has only a tenuous hold over Western province. That means it only enjoys overwhelming support in Nyanza — among the Luo.

Apart from Mr Odinga, the three people perceived to be most powerful in ODM are all Luo — Prof Nyong’o, Lands minister James Orengo and lawyer Miguna Miguna, the PM’s “senior adviser”. Whether or not this trio is of good men is immaterial.

It doesn’t help matters that the two other “loud pro-Odinga voices” within ODM are also Luo — ODM Chief Whip Jakoyo Midiwo and Immigration minister Otieno Kajwang. I am afraid Mr Odinga’s charisma has been blighted by those close to him.

Inner cabal

To the public, it seems that Mr Odinga has surrounded himself with an inner cabal of Luo confidantes. His only close senior non-Luo ally is Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi.

But, quite frankly, Mr Mudavadi doesn’t seem to be a true insider. Water minister Charity Ngilu, once a big ODM voice, has been stilled.

Tourism minister Najib Balala has become a mortal enemy. Eldoret North MP William Ruto, Mr Odinga’s key ODM foe, cannot wait to decapitate his boss.

Why Mr Odinga has allowed ODM to be perceived as a “Luo party” beats me. It’s counter-intuitive for a man who is clearly a nationalist and one of only two — the other being Gichugu MP Martha Karua — leading progressive presidential candidates.

Since his days at NDP, Mr Odinga has successfully worked to shed the image of a “Luo leader”. His stand on matters of national importance — among them the Mau Complex and the trials of The Hague Six — made him a statesman.

In contrast, the PNU/KKK leadership is pursuing a manifestly tribal strategy to win the 2012 elections. But how can Mr Odinga distinguish himself and ODM from the PNU/KKK alliance if his advisers and party are mono-tribal?

The third reason ODM could be consigned to the dustbin of history is its proclivity for opportunism, double-speak, and inconsistency on important questions.

This has been poignant in the case of the Ocampo Six. ODM — and sometimes Mr Odinga himself — has been mealy-mouthed.

Today the party supports The Hague trials and opposes “deferral”, but tomorrow it asks for a so-called “referral”. This is feckless and inexcusable. Either ODM supports The Hague trials or it doesn’t. There is no “in-between”.

Nor is it defensible for the party to raise funds to defend Mr Ruto, Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey, and journalist Joshua arap Sang’ to pander to Kalenjin voters. That’s what the word opportunism was invented to describe.

The fourth reason ODM could explode is one name — Ruto. Mr Ruto is to Mr Odinga and ODM what Mr Odinga was to Kanu and later Narc. He is a one-man wrecking crew. He has alienated the Kalenjin from ODM and Mr Odinga.

He has shamelessly teamed up with his former nemesis in PNU — especially Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta — and VP Kalonzo Musyoka to form the PNU/KKK alliance to kill ODM and Mr Odinga’s chances in 2012.

He has “inserted himself” between President Mwai Kibaki and Mr Odinga. Most importantly, he may implicate ODM and Mr Odinga at The Hague trials. That’s why Mr Odinga must expel Mr Ruto from ODM pronto — otherwise he’ll deeply regret it.

I don’t deny that political parties in Kenya face long odds. Tribalism is a cancer that dogs all of them. Nor is it easy for progressives and reformers to shoot straight in Kenya and remain relevant politically. Politics is about the art of compromise. No party can be purist and win elections. To play politics is to “be dirty”.

Mr Odinga and ODM must avoid the “worst cancers” of Kenyan politics if they are to stay alive and remain progressive.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.