Curious case of Ruto’s rise from zero to hero in Meru politics

By MURITHI MUTIGA
Posted  Saturday, April 2 2011 at 17:52

In Summary

• Puzzle: Explanation needed for the ever shifting ethnic alliances of Kenyan politics

William Ruto was not the most popular man in Meru in the first few months of 2008. Popular opinion cast him as the villain in the context of the violence that followed the last General Election.

One of the abiding memories I took away from the crisis was a conversation a group of youths had at a restaurant in the middle of Meru town.

It was around the time Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga were haggling over appointments to the initial coalition Cabinet.

One of the young men informed his peers that the information he had gathered was that Mr Kibaki had agreed to yield the National Security slot to Mr Odinga, and that the PM intended to nominate Mr Ruto.

Murmurs of disapproval

This was met with murmurs of disapproval. If that was indeed true, one of the youths offered, then the Ameru would have to pass a decree requiring all policemen and provincial administration officers in the larger Meru district to leave.

They would be happy to use ancient methods such as Njuri Ncheke elders’ hearings and youth patrols to police themselves, for how could they feel safe with Mr Ruto in charge after the images they had seen on TV from Rift Valley province?

Of course they had no evidence that Mr Ruto had anything to do with the violence, and he is very much an innocent man until proved otherwise.

But that conversation captured how ethnically divided the country was in 2007/8. It was a small nugget illustrating the fact that the consequence of failure in the peace talks would most probably have been civil war.

Then comes the paradox. Today, Mr Ruto is easily one of the most popular figures in Meru district.

On his recent trip to the area–with Uhuru Kenyatta–he won some of the loudest ovations and his speeches were generally warmly received.

One might say that loud cheers at a rally mean very little. But there is empirical evidence to prove that there is some substance to the theory that Mr Ruto enjoys significant support there.

In February, two civic by-elections were held in the heart of PNU’s support base not far from Meru town.

Both seats were won by UDM, a party closely associated with Mr Ruto. This was despite vigorous campaigns by PNU bigwigs including homeboy Kiraitu Murungi, whose preferred candidate was beaten in his own Imenti South constituency.

That was a significant coup for the Ruto camp, which had earlier achieved remarkably high “No” votes in an area that usually reliably votes with Mr Kibaki in national contests.

What does this turnaround say about Kenyans?

One theory would be that the ethnic divisions that keep Kenyans apart are fairly shallow; nothing near the enmities in Burundi, Rwanda, Israel or the Balkans.

Another is that those who argue that Kenya needed a lengthy, bloody civil war so that the country could properly rebuild are wrong.

The comparatively swift end to the violence, which helped keep the body count low (by African conflict standards), eased the extent of the bitterness that remained and made eventual reconciliation more feasible.

Troubling question

A more troubling question is how much Kenyans care about that much-used term “impunity” – if the size of the crowds and their depth of enthusiasm at rallies organized by figures the ICC wants tried for crimes against humanity are anything to go by?

Do Kenyans really worry about impunity, or do they prefer to treat presidential contests as little more than a game, an opportunity for tribal warfare through the ballot box? Is impunity a middle-class, civil society obsession restricted to the gilded halls of five-star hotels in Nairobi?

These are not comfortable questions. But they have to be confronted if one is to find a rational explanation for the puzzling and ever shifting ethnic alliances of Kenya’s politics.

mmutiga@ke.nationmedia.com