The Hague factor props Kalonzo's fortunes in 2012

By Juma Kwayera
Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka's political fortunes are looking up following recent developments working in his favour.
All factors remaining constant, the proverbial silver lining in every dark cloud will make sure the VP does not need to enter loose alliances to ascend to power. If the International Criminal Court Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo gets the greenlight to prosecute the six key suspects of post-election violence, Kalonzo could easily march to State House with ease next year.
The Mwingi North MP will also not have to scheme how to position himself between his opponents in the quest for power as he did in the last election, where he took advantage of the ensuing political impasse to become Vice-President.
Consequently, 2011 will be a defining moment for Kalonzo’s second bid for the presidency should the ICC indict Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and suspended Higher Education Minister William Ruto, who had lined up for the big race.
The three had been touted as behind the ‘KKK’ banner ahead of the next elections. Uhuru and Ruto’s exit would leave Kalonzo commanding the ‘KKK’ alliance, a grouping of Kikuyu, Kalenjin and Kamba leaders seeking to stop Prime Minister Raila Odinga from succeeding President Kibaki. The looming indictments have a solidifying effect on such political and ethnic alliances beginning to take shape in the countdown to 2012. The other suspects are Head of Civil Service Francis Muthaura, former Police Commissioner Hussein Ali, Industrialisation Minister Henry Kosgey and Kass FM radio presenter Joshua arap Sang.
The latest Synovate opinion poll rates Kalonzo as the third favourite presidential candidate with 12 per cent, behind the PM who had 42 per cent and Uhuru at 14 per cent. Ruto was polled fourth with four per cent of the respondents backing his presidential bid.
The 16 per cent lot that is indifferent to the presidential candidates list that also included Eugene Wamalwa (two per cent) and Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua (two per cent), hold the swing vote. Opinion is still divided on whether Uhuru and Ruto’s voters in central Kenya and the Rift Valley will automatically turn to Kalonzo.
One school of thought posits that if the Pre-Trial Chamber judges allow Ocampo to indict the six, it would be a major political setback for Uhuru and Ruto. In the unfolding political scenario, some observers interpret the misfortunes of the two to be a boon to the VP.
Political analysts concur this year will be momentous for Kalonzo, whom they describe as lucky since everything seem to be working in his favour. Former Siakago MP Justin Muturi says 2011 will be politically demanding for the VP if Uhuru and Ruto are indicted.
Mr Muturi, who is also Kanu secretary for legal affairs, says Kalonzo has a mountain to climb outside Eastern Province for failing to espouse opinions that resonate with the Kenyan public.
"Initially, Mt Kenya region communities had some sympathy for Kalonzo until he began flip-flopping during the constitutional referendum campaigns. He equivocated, which raised questions about his credibility. There is also a feeling if the VP was principled, post-election violence would not have occurred. The rush to forge a coalition with Kibaki portrayed him as greedy," Muturi says.
Nominated MP George Nyamweya says the ICC has become a major political factor, with or without indictments of the six suspects. He says voters from the suspects’ communities are likely to rally behind one candidate to exact revenge on leaders they blame the tribulations of the six on.
"If ICC is the route to go we will see a reinforcement of ethnic and political alliances that were beginning to form. The six come from communities where they command a major following. Ocampo will solidify these alliances," says Nyamweya, who predicts major realignments that could harm candidates with favourable ratings.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga has maintained pole position in all opinion polls since the formation of the Grand Coalition in 2008. In the absence of Ruto and Uhuru, Kalonzo’s presidential potential received a boost recently when the tribulations of his perennial rival, Water Minister Charity Ngilu, dominated debate in Parliament, where she risks censure if the KACC probe finds her culpable.
Nyamweya says the ethnic and political alliances to be forged if ICC indicts Uhuru and Ruto might also isolate Kalonzo and Raila, who are seen as beneficiaries of the Ocampo move.
"Those shedding crocodile tears and rubbing their hands in glee must also be prepared to be tossed out," he adds.
Against this backdrop, Mr Tom Wolf, a consultant with Synovate, says Ocampo is the best thing that happened to Kalonzo’s presidential ambitions. "Other things being equal, I would say Ocampo is Kalonzo’s biggest supporter!" he quips.
However, he disabuses the VP and his supporters of the perception that Uhuru and Ruto’s exit would turn the tide in his favour. "I am not saying the indictment of the Ocampo Six guarantees him State House, since there are many uncertainties regarding 2012 politics," adds Wolf.
The uncertainties are illustrated by the Synovate opinion poll released on Christmas Eve. Thirty-six per cent of the 2,011 respondents polled said they were indifferent to political parties. Kalonzo’s ODM-Kenya is at the tail end of the seven parties surveyed, while Raila’s ODM tops the list with 38 per cent followed by PNU with 18 per cent. ODM-Kenya and Narc-Kenya tie at two per cent.
Muturi says recent history can stall the VP’s march to State House. "What appears like a smooth ride has the potential to become a tough call should Ocampo indict the six suspects. This is because the trials will not be completed before 2012. As for Kalonzo, the feeling in central Kenya is a matter of natural history that since he comes from a smaller community, he must support one of their own," observes Muturi.