Relax, Raila and Ruto, it’s only a presidential race and one will win

 

By MURITHI MUTIGAPosted Saturday, January 29 2011 at 17:16

In Summary

• My vote: My only consideration will be the candidate who will fully implement Constitution in the next five years

Optimistic analysts had hoped the endorsement of the new Constitution would render the presidency less attractive and reduce the manic competition for that office that often degenerates into violence.

But while it is true that the next president will be a much diminished figure, circumscribed by Parliamentary controls and bound by law to share state resources with the 47 counties, the competition for State House in 2012 appears more intense than anything we have known for years.

It is the all-consuming topic Kenyans spend their time debating in forums from Facebook to pubs. And, as in 2007, the early signs are that this could well degenerate into a bloody contest.

Whole ethnic communities have been mobilised to believe that the next election is a do-or-die affair. They must get their man into State House or at the very least stop their rival from getting there.

And the dangerous thing for Kenya is that the central figures in both camps are the two great absolutists on the political scene: William Ruto and Raila Odinga.

As Charles Onyango-Obbo remarked on Thursday, the Kenyan story has unfortunately become inter-linked with the fortunes and ambitions of this pair.

They are easily the top talents in the public arena at the moment. And their history suggests they will run a bare-knuckle campaign in which no insult will go unanswered, no slight will be unreciprocated, and no tactic that could earn either party an advantage will be spared.

The great unanswered question is: Will either camp accept defeat or is it their position already that they will make the country ungovernable unless it is they doing the governing?

Who will advise the masses that the sky will not come tumbling in if Raila clinches the presidency or if Uhuru Kenyatta, Kalonzo Musyoka or Ruto win the majority of the votes in August 2012?

It is a peculiar feature of Kenyan politics that here people prepare for elections in the same way others elsewhere prepare for war.

Before the referendum, ordinary Kenyans, especially in the cities, stocked up on airtime and filled their fridges with food.

Their fears were ultimately proved to be unfounded, but the direction the campaigns for the presidential election are taking means the pessimists may be proven prescient in 2012.

One way to halt this march towards mayhem is for neutral players such as civil society to engage in an intensive campaign of civic education to help voters understand that the new Constitution means Kenya will not have a dictator any time soon.

The president will not be able to fill the government with members of his ethnic group. He will be restrained by the stipulation that senior appointees must be vetted by Parliament.

The president will not be able to dish out land to his cronies or deny whole regions resources from Treasury. The devolved funds are written into law, and it may well be that the vote that matters most for ordinary folk will be the selection of a governor as this figure will have a direct impact on their lives at the grassroots level.

The stakes are not high for voters going into the next election. Certainly no ethnic community needs to feel threatened by the eventual winner.

The politicians actually have indistinguishable economic policies and are only divided by their ethnicity.

The only real question I will consider in choosing a candidate to back is the issue of which of them is more likely to support the full implementation of the new Constitution in the next five years.

Voices other than those of politicians must be heard at the grassroots to help defuse the ugly tensions that are taking hold at the village level.

If things remain as they are, with the emotional appeals to ethnic constituencies and the siege mentality that is enveloping whole regions, it is inevitable, as the iconic movie title suggests, that There Will be Blood.

mmutiga@ke.nationmedia.com