The Winners And Losers

Star Team 6 August 2010

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Nairobi — THE referendum was a triumph for President Kibaki, Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Deputy Prime Ministers Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi but dealt a blow to Vice President Kalonzo, Higher Education minister William Ruto, Information minister Samuel Poghisio and retired President Moi.

Yes took an overwhelming 6,092,593 or 66.9 per cent of the people who voted.

Other politicians who gained from the Yes team's success are Tourism minister Najib Balala, Gichugu MP Martha Karua and Saboti legislator Eugene Wamalwa. Special Programmes minister Naomi Shaban's political future has been dimmed as she was in the losing No team.

For Kibaki whose second and final term expires December 2012, the new constitution ensures his place in the country's history. He can proudly point to is endorsement as his legacy. However, he faces the biggest challenge yet as he has to midwife the new constitution through the transition and into the 2012.

Kibaki re-energised and re-focused the campaigns in the last month after Raila fell ill and was unable to lead the Yes rallies.

"I want to pay tribute to President Kibaki for stepping to the front when I became a substitute. He played a gallant role in leading the campaign," Raila declared at the victory rally yesterday.

Analysts said the outcome of the referendum can be used as a matrix to predict what is likely to happen in 2012.

"This is victory for him. He intends to inherit President Kibaki's constituency and that is why you saw him attribute the Yes win to Kibaki. The victory makes Raila electable and this will be the platform on which he will launch his 2012 bid for State House," said political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi.

In Raila's Lang'ata constituency, 89,290 voted Yes compared to 22,653 who voted No.

Uhuru shares the credit with President Kibaki for marshalling the Yes votes in Central Kenya and PNU strongholds in Rift Valley.

"Uhuru turned the Central Province from No to Yes, he is definitely a big winner. Where No votes registered some numbers, it was mainly because of the influence of the mainstream churches like the Catholics and Anglicans," said one of his close associates.

The Yes vote in Gatundu South was 32,422 against No's 10,209 votes.

Uhuru is working on building the Green Alliance that will bring together young leaders including Balala, Eugene, Cecily Mbarire, Kabando wa Kabando, Mwangi Kiunjuri and Nderitu Mureithi among others.

The choice of the name is significant as the alliance hopes to build on the optimism that has been created by the Yes team's success.

"Uhuru is now in a stronger position to put his team together and you are likely to see a big announcement made in two weeks," said political activist Tony Gachoka.

The success of the Yes team gives Mudavadi a springboard raising his profile above other leaders from the region.

"It has given him a springboard that he is free to use in 2012. Raila remains the bigger man in the picture and if Mudavadi uses the springboard well, he may be the man to watch in 2012," said another analyst, Amboka Andere.

Karua has successfully and independently campaigned for the Green side raising her own and the party's national profile. Unlike other parties that went into the loose PNU coalition, Karua and Narc Kenya have retained an independence and identity which the other parties including Kanu lost.

"She has strategically positioned her party to pick up the spoils from the big two in 2012," said Ngunyi.

Kalonzo survived in his own Mwingi North constituency but compared to other possible 2012 presidential hopefuls, his is the most lukewarm performance.

Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni said the results in Ukambani showed that Kalonzo was "roaming with an empty political basket".

But Kalonzo's supporters maintain the VP did well to deliver 54 per cent of the Yes votes from 11 out of the 16 constituencies in the region.

David Musila, whose Mwingi South constituency was overrun by No votes, defended the VP saying he had been fighting against a strong tide propelled by the churches which have a strong influence in the region.

"The Catholic and AIC churches are very influential here and people voted according to what the church asked them to. We had situation where supporters told us that it was not a matter of the VP's political position but their faith," Musila said.

However, ODM secretary general Anyang' Nyong'o attributed Kalonzo's loss of grip in Ukambani to late Yes campaigns in the region.

Ruto, who was the leader of the No camp delivered 65,007 votes against the constitution with 43,317 voting in favour. The prospect that he might be sacked from Cabinet looms large and with it the possibility that he will now be free to campaign in readiness for 2012.

Moi's active campaign against the constitution will not endear him to the public especially as he stands accused of blocking reforms and the realisation of a new constitution during his 24 years as President.

While he may still be revered by the Kalenjin, Moi is increasingly becoming irrelevant unless he can form a working relationship with Ruto or simply vanish from active politics, analysts say.

As a 2012 presidential hopeful, Poghisio does not seem to have enhanced his stature beyond Kacheliba where the No team managed to get 9,324 votes against the Yes team's 3,962 votes.

Mutito MP Kiema Kilonzo was unable to persuade his own constituents to vote against the constitution even though he had been spearheading the No crusade.The Yes triumphed with 14,201 against 9,654 No votes.

Other losers are Joshua Kuttuny whose Cherangany constituency was overrun by the Yes camp constituency; Nambale MP Chris Okemo's return to Parliament in 2012 hangs in the balance after 33,859 vote against 5,734; Cyrus Jirongo whose 52,518 constituents voted in favour of the constitution against 8,765 votes for No.

Bishop Wanjiru who recently lost her Starehe seat will face an uphill task recapturing it since she was in the NO team while her rival Maina Kamanda was firmly in the Yes team.