How referendum campaigns are shaping Kibaki succession

By John Oywa

A verdict on the Proposed Constitution could boost or shatter many political dreams.

A similar referendum in 2005 failed to produce a new constitution and instead unleashed a new political alliance – the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) whose presidential candidate Raila Odinga rode on the referendum campaign popularity to give President Mwai Kibaki a run for his money in the disputed 2007 elections.

With the 2012 General Election on the horizons, today’s exercise will be more than a plebiscite. It comes at a time the country is grappling with the Kibaki succession puzzle and the post referendum Kenya.

The referendum outcome could shape the 2012 politics and provide hints about who is likely to become Kenya’s fourth President when Kibaki’s term ends in two years time.

The first indication that the referendum was a high stakes succession politics came when a group of PNU MPs bitterly complained that Raila was getting too much credit from the referendum campaigns.

They protested that the Prime Minister had stolen the thunder from close Kibaki allies and could ride on this to clinch the presidential elections should Kenyans endorse the new constitution.

The "Raila phobia", as some central Province MPs term it almost derailed the Yes campaigns. Kinangop MP David Ngugi said some of his colleagues from Central province had been "blinded" by the anti-Raila sentiment and became an obstacle to the Yes campaign.

When Kalonzo was heckled at a Yes rally in Nairobi, the V-P promptly accused the Premier of having had a hand in the incident.

Kibaki’s ambivalence to party politics and his succession has thrown wide the race to succeed him.

Campaign platform

The referendum has provided a campaign platform for the 2012 Presidential seat hopefuls - Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Premier Uhuru Kenyatta and Higher Education Minister William Ruto.

Although they donned green and red shirts, scarves and hats, the politicians had their eyes focused on the Kibaki succession.

They used the campaigns to test the murky political waters and market themselves as 2012 beckons. Raila, Kalonzo and Uhuru are driving the YES campaign while Ruto is the de facto NO leader.

While President Kibaki is supporting the Proposed Constitution as part of his legacy, the big four are eyeing the the Presidency.

He adds: "The politicians are borrowing from the 2005 referendum whose outcome shaped the 2007 presidential race," said Enoch Olonde, the Democratic Party of Kenya deputy national Organizing Secretary.

Lifting the veils of Green and Red colours could reveal the real intentions of politicians keen at testing the waters for a stub at the presidency rather than a genuine push for a new constitution.

"Raila has successfully used the YES campaign to boost his image. He is clearly ahead of the pack because he took a firm position early enough. Kenyans are likely to rate Uhuru and Kalonzo’s according to how many YES votes they deliver from their communities," Olonde said.

Kalonzo has been under pressure to deliver the Ukambani votes to prove his relevance in the 2012 polls. He finished third after Kibaki and Raila in the discredited 2007 presidential elections whose outcome sparked bloody violence in parts of the country.

There is no doubt that he will try his luck in 2012.

The referendum outcome and the events that preceded it could also determine the future of the KKK (Kamba, Kikuyu, Kalenjin) alliance, which took a nose dive soon after being mooted by Kalonzo, Kenyatta and Ruto last year.

Unwittingly, a defeat will give succour to Raila’s rivals within ODM and hand the initiative to those fronting Uhuru as a successor to Kibaki given the rivalry between the two sons of post-independent Kenya ruling class.

Raila is the son of Kenya’s first Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga while Uhuru is the son of Jomo Kenyatta, the first President of the republic.

In 2002 and 2007, Uhuru and Raila have been on opposing sides and their strategists must be examining how to utilize a win or a loss at the referendum.

Trouble for Kalonzo

On the other hand, it has not been smooth sailing for Kalonzo. His close allies led by Mutito MP Kiema Kilonzo have mounted an onslaught against the Proposed Constitution in his backyard. His ODM-Kenya party chairman and Information minister, Samuel Pogishio also deserted him at his hour of need.

"It is important to note that Kalonzo spent most of the campaign period fighting bad publicity which arose from a belief that he sat on the fence until the eleventh hour. The fact that his community is not 100 per cent with him could spell doom for his 2012 presidential ambitions," says Mike Kariuki, a political and policy analysis consultant.

This was in contrast to Raila’s tactics.

Before he fell ill and was confined to a bed rest by his doctors, the Langata a MP traversed the country campaigning for the new law.

Ruto, the rebel ODM deputy leader has joined the church to reject the Proposed Constitution over land ownership and reproductive health clauses. The hostilities he faced in parts of the country could be a harbinger of what awaits him in 2012.

It will be Ruto’s first bid for the big office and analysts say this is why he is using the referendum to sharpen his skills and gauge his grip on the Kalenjin populace.

Kibaki succession

"Even if his side loses, it will be interesting to know whether the Eldoret North MP can consolidate the Kalenjin community into a solid voting block the way Raila has done with Nyanza. This will give him a bargaining edge."

Meanwhile, Uhuru got a boost after a meeting convened by senior Kikuyu leaders in Limuru endorsed him as Central Kenya’s de facto leader in the Kibaki succession battle.

Observers say this has put him above former Constitutional Affairs Minister Martha Karua, Security Minister George Saitoti and Assistant Minister Peter Kenneth who had declared interest in the top seat.

Former Siakago MP Justin Muturi left no doubt on the motive of the Limuru meeting: "The region has been groping in the dark and had now found its leader. People from the region are hungry for leadership after Kibaki and they have made up their minds."