YES OR NO?

The line-up for the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaign quickly shaped up at the weekend as political heavyweights took positions and began stomping the country to marshal forces.

With two clear pro- and anti-Proposed Constitution camps emerging, the campaigns are promising to be interesting as Kenya’s political heavyweights on the one hand are pitted against their colleagues and Christian religious leaders on the other.

But the question uppermost in the minds of many was how the constitution battle would shape the fortunes of politicians come 2012, given the tendency of the referendum to redefine alliances and polarise the political environment.

On Saturday, Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa said: "It depends on how it goes but yes, it is true there is a possibility of the referendum shaping the 2012 polls".

The danger that Kenyans are facing therefore is the creation of two new rival blocs, along the likes of the current ODM–PNU rivalry.

Already, strange bedfellows are being shoved into similar camps, with President Kibaki and his erstwhile rival Prime Minister Raila Odinga leading the Yes camp, while former President Moi, Cabinet minister William Ruto and a crop of young politicians including Eugene, Hassan Joho, Amason Kingi and Peter Munya and Christian religious leaders are sitting on the other.
With memories of 2005 referendum still fresh, leaders take positions in what might yet shape up into a memorable vote.



Other strange bedfellows lining up for the Yes vote is Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Ministers Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi, same as Cabinet ministers Prof George Saitoti, Kiraitu Murungi and Najib Balala who made his stand known on Saturday.

Common interest

Balala who was widely expected to join forces with Ruto said, "Ruto has been my friend in politics because we share a common interest. But this time round I differ with him as I support the Yes vote."

And on the Church front, the leaders of the main churches are still adamant that they will throw out the document because of the inclusion of Kadhi’s courts and the abortion clause.

On Saturday, President Kibaki was in VP Kalonzo’s Mwingi backyard where he urged Kenyans to embrace the proposed constitution, as it was better than the current document.

And as if to underline just how intricately the constitution issue is linked to 2012 succession politics, President Kibaki urged his deputy to remain loyal and bid his time.

"The seat is currently occupied but continue with the same spirit as you wait for the right time," said Kibaki.

The President plunged powerfully into the constitutional review debate when he said nothing would stop Kenyans from getting a new constitution.

Bruising battle

It was the President’s clearest sign yet that those opposed to the Draft should prepare for a bruising battle.

However, in an apparent reference to the churches, the President said their views should be respected and their concerns addressed.

"Let us not abuse anyone, we should listen to them because they have been given their high offices by God, we will answer and address their concerns… the constitution will be reviewed now and will also be amended later," said Kibaki.

And in the North Rift, Raila continued his foray, addressing a rally at Eldoret’s 64 Stadium while Ruto and Balala, who have in the recent past been at loggerheads with their Orange Democratic Movement party leader, were in Mombasa.

It is instructive that the 2005 ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ camps eventually transformed themselves into political movements and even registered as parties.

And it remains to be seen what happens this time round.

Raila, who has made it clear that he is in the race to succeed Kibaki come 2012, has already announced that he would soon be launching the ‘Yes’ campaign at Uhuru Park in Nairobi.

Political pundits are reading in Ruto’s ‘No’ position a resolve to use the referendum to marshal forces and gauge his political capital as the clock ticks towards 2012.

Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka is slowly becoming a ‘Yes’ convert, though still sympathetic to the leaders who are calling for amendments.

Amendments

"Whatever it takes we must get a new Constitution this year. Nothing will stop Kenyans from getting a new Constitution," said Kalonzo.

The Mwingi Central MP said as long as he was still serving as an MP, he would support the amendment of the Constitution, but did not clarify whether they should be before or after the referendum.

With Uhuru and Saitoti — both Presidential hopefuls — on the ‘Yes’ campaign, it will be interesting to see how they will work with Raila when campaigns proper kick off officially in July.

The document is currently being edited at the Attorney-General’s Chambers before it is published and passed over to the Committee of Experts for a 30-day civic education and the final 30 days for campaigning and the referendum date.

Heritage Minister William Ole Ntimama, a strong ‘Yes’ supporter, was categorical that Ruto wanted to mislead the people for his own personal interest.

He blamed those who grabbed large tracts of land for the misinformation and assured law-abiding citizens that they had nothing to fear.

Justice Minister Mutula Kilonzo, a key pillar in ODM-Kenya, is a great supporter of the "Yes" vote and he believes that despite the opposition from Church leaders, Kenyans will overwhelmingly support the draft.