DOWN BUT NOT OUT

The campaigns for and against the draft constitution will be a popularity contest in Rift Valley between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and the new minister for Higher Education William Ruto.

Mr Odinga, who moved Mr Ruto from Agriculture to the Higher Education docket, was in the latter’s Eldoret North constituency to drum up support for a Yes vote a fortnight ago. In turn, the No campaigners headed by Mr Ruto have planned a rally in Tinderet, the home turf of ODM chairman Henry Kosgey, a key ally of Mr Odinga.

Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny, a key ally of Mr Ruto, said the Higher Education minister will weather the storm and his association with the so-called KKK alliance will not be affected by constitution-making and the mini-reshuffle. “I am confident Ruto will perform better than in Agriculture as he will now handle fewer state corporations. The move will strengthen his fight for what he believes in for the good of the country and its citizens in the run-up to 2012,” Mr Kutuny said.

“People should differentiate political contests from constitution-making. And those thinking that Uhuru Kenyatta and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka abandoned him (Ruto) are making wrong assumptions,” he said. Dr Lukoye Atwoli, a political analyst, said Mr Odinga’s move bolstered Kenyans’ confidence that coalition government was working together, especially on the hot issues of the day.

“The mini-reshuffle had different impacts on the key political players in ODM and PNU. For Ruto has come out looking like a hero who rattled his boss and saw him react. And, on the other hand, Raila has made himself seen as the party’s chief and propagated a semblance of a working coalition where he talked and concurred with President Kibaki,” Dr Lukoye said.

He recalled that the premier had on several occasions promised a political tsunami, and removing Mr Ruto from the prized Agriculture docket was one of the schemes of pulling the strings tighter ahead of 2012. “But President Kibaki’s political calculations remain complicated as he is keen to leave the bad things to Raila and protect his legacy,” Dr Atwoli said.

Eldoret Mayor William Rono, a close Ruto ally, said the Cabinet changes were made in bad faith. “It was purely revenge over Ruto’s stand on the draft constitution. Raila took Mr Ruto’s political differences to a personal level, and we were not happy,” he said.

Prof Macharia Munene, a political scientist at United States International University, said the protracted Raila-Ruto political battle would have little impact on the referendum, but it would have a significant role in the run-up to 2012 General Election. “It will have a strong impact on Raila in the Rift Valley as he stands to lose at least 700,000 votes if Ruto runs for the presidency.

However, Ruto is increasingly becoming isolated outside Rift Valley,” Prof Munene said. “Raila is a political entertainer and a crowd puller, and many people may not like someone who only entertains. Surprises will spring up as two years is still a long way off.”

“Ruto is a hardworking MP and might initiate changes in the Higher Education ministry. He did well in his former position, and his personality might to transform the Higher Education ministry,” he said. Dr Charles Otieno, the executive director of the Institute of Policy and Polity, concurred with Prof Munene.

“The political ground has become shaky even before official campaign starts. Unlike the 2005 referendum, the No campaigners will be treading on quicksand given most of those who fronted the rejection of Wako draft are pushing for the (new) document,” Dr Otieno said.

Mr Ruto and his No group will find it hard to convince Kenyans to reject the draft, he said, and if they lose, Rift Valley MPs allied to him will be isolated in the province and are bound to lose their seats in 2012. Dr Otieno said the referendum will determine how the two sides will regroup ahead of the General Election, although managing the political strategy remains very tricky.