I am pretty sure that when you turned to this page of your copy of The Star, and started reading this column, it did not occur to you that you were a “consumer” who was partaking of an “intellectual property product”.
But there are many clever people who would insist that, in fact, that is precisely what you were doing.
And that there is fundamentally no difference between someone who drinks a cup of tea (a consumer of a “non-alcoholic beverage product”) and a newspaper reader: both are consumers, first and foremost.
My point though is that the comically over-elaborate terms used in academic research can often conceal the fact that research methodology does give us valid frameworks for understanding events.
Here is a practical example: Kenyan politicians are often to be found claiming the mantle of “change” during elections. This is based on the awareness that at any given time, Kenyans are unhappy with their lot, and thus hoping that a new government might do better than the one they have.
Now academics who study political processes broadly categorise any “change” into two broad categories: ‘shocks’; and ‘megatrends’.
There are no doubt plenty of other categories, both great and small used by political scientists. But I have always found this particular dichotomy useful.
In general, the events which make a huge splash in newspaper headlines, often turn out to be ‘shocks’ – dramatic events which may appear to herald a new dispensation, but often turn out to have a somewhat short-lived impact. While the ‘megatrends’ – the ‘big picture’ patterns of how events are shaping up – often get very little attention, even though they are the ones which really matter.
First example: the Moi era is remembered by many as a time of epic corruption and criminal mismanagement of the economy. And the Goldenburg scandal in which billions of shillings were drained from public coffers through an elaborate scam, is considered to be emblematic of the Moi years.
Well, the Kibaki administration also had its exemplary monument to corruption, in the ‘Anglo-Leasing’ scandal which saw three cabinet ministers “step aside to allow for investigations”.
The difference though is that while both presidents had their memorable ‘shocks’ in the form of these gigantic theft of public funds, the ‘megatrend’ of their tenures were completely different: the Moi years were a time of the most depressing economic stagnation; while the Kibaki years were a period of impressive economic growth.
To repeat, the ‘shock’ is the event which creates news and makes for interesting reading.
And the ‘megatrend’ is the really significant long-term change taking place, often unnoticed by the public - and it is these megatrends which really matter.
Now turning to the Jubilee government, at this point, what can we say?
The interesting thing is that the future interpretation of what these early months of this government signified, depends entirely on how it all turns out in the end.
At the present time, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his team seem to lurch from crisis to crisis; and they are not proving particularly adept at handling these crises.
And then, of course, there is the matter of those millions of laptops supposedly due to be distributed to schoolchildren…
Well, if in five years’ time there is continuing political stability and increased prosperity, these early months will be seen as having been characterized by the ‘shock’ of implementing the provisions of the new constitution; devolving power to the counties; and experimenting with a technocrats-only cabinet in the US model.
In short, if Uhuru is as successful in macroeconomic management as Kibaki was, much will be forgiven.
But if the Jubilee government turns out to be a huge disappointment, then what we have seen thus far will be viewed as the commencing of a very different megatrend – a return to Moi-era kleptocracy.
The laptop project is particularly illustrative here: if indeed millions of schoolchildren do indeed end up having most of their lessons conducted via solar-powered laptops, then both Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto will be seen as heroic visionaries. Even those who did not vote for them will be obliged to confess that they have pulled off a miracle of governance.
But if this laptop project flops – as I, for one, strongly suspect it will – then it will be remembered that in Kenya, the most iconic scams, always come clothed in the shining robes of a bold new initiative designed to shower blessings on the public.
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