By BERNARD NAMUNANE bnamunane@ke.nationmedia.com ( email the author)
Posted Sunday, March 3 2013 at 17:14
Posted Sunday, March 3 2013 at 17:14
In Summary
- The losing team will be expected to concede defeat and take to the opposition benches in the National Assembly and in the Senate, or in the event they detect irregularities, they can seek the court’s intervention.
- Uhuru’s team says it will enter into coalition if it fails to get majority seats in Parliament as Odinga side vows to go it alone
The vote you cast in Monday’s elections, especially at the presidential and parliamentary level, is likely to result in two scenarios.
First, one of the leading coalitions — Jubilee or Cord — could garner 50 per cent plus one vote and win the presidential race in the first round.
Alternatively, both could fall short of this requirement, which means the presidential race will go to a run-off.
Both the Cord presidential candidate, Mr Raila Odinga, and his Jubilee counterpart, Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, have declared that they will win the top seat race in Round One.
Mr Odinga has said his team will win the race at 11am Tuesday— some two hours ahead of the time Mr Kenyatta’s alliance has declared it will have secured the State House seat.
If any of the two wins, then the campaigns they have run in the last 21 days will end for sure.
The losing team will be expected to concede defeat and take to the opposition benches in the National Assembly and in the Senate, or in the event they detect irregularities, they can seek the court’s intervention.
If there is no legal battle and the winning coalition fails to raise more than 145 MPs in the National Assembly, it will present another challenge since the winning President will not have full control of the two chambers of Parliament.
Even though both Jubilee and Cord have declared they expect to gain majority members in the two houses, they said they will opt for post-election pacts if they fail to raise the requisite numbers.
The National Alliance (TNA) secretary-general Onyango Oloo, ODM chief agent Larry Gumbe and Prof Peter Kagwanja, an independent political analyst, are in agreement that failure to secure a majority in Parliament could necessitate the formation of a grand coalition.
On Sunday, Mr Oloo said Mr Kenyatta will win in the first round, including securing a majority in Parliament.
“We absolutely have no doubt we are not only winning the presidency but also coming out with a majority in Parliament. We may be shy of the constitutional majority but we are sure of the ruling majority. Our very own neutral opinion polls have shown that we will have a ruling majority in Parliament,” he said.
While a parliamentary majority means any number above 145 MPs in the 290 member National Assembly, a constitutional majority refers to two thirds majority which is required to pass any Constitutional amendment.
The first is possible but in the current circumstances, the second may prove futile.
However, Mr Oloo said Jubilee will enter into post elections coalitions if they fail to win enough seats to gain majority status in the National Assembly and Senate.
“In the very unlikely event that we fail to achieve a ruling majority, the Elections Act provides for a post-elections coalition,” he said.
Prof Gumbe, the ODM chief agent, argued that they are sure of securing majority MPs in the National Assembly and senators.
He said ODM, Wiper Democratic Party and Ford Kenya will win seats enough to give Cord majority status in the two houses.
“From the opinion polls, it is not possible that we will not have a majority. ODM, Wiper and Ford Kenya will surely raise the numbers,” he said.
Opinion polls have shown that Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta are in a tight race to succeed President Kibaki.
However, Prof Gumbe introduces an interesting argument that since Kenya has shifted from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, it is possible to rule without a majority in Parliament.
Citing US President Barack Obama, who has ruled without a majority in the Congress, he argued that in such situations all a president requires is to negotiate with the opposition.
“A majority in Parliament only becomes important in a parliamentary system like in Italy. Let nobody say that it is impossible to govern without a majority in a Parliament. Obama has been doing it,” he stated.
Prof Kagwanja took a different stand, arguing that neither Jubilee nor Cord could raise the majority in the National Assembly and Senate. He stated that the way the coalitions were crafted, it is not possible to strike the coveted number in Parliament.
“The way things are, it is impossible. Some of the parties supporting the presidential bid of the Jubilee candidate do not have a base except URP.
Ngilu’s Narc may not clinch even a single seat in Ukambani. TNA will get seats in Nairobi, and central Kenya, GNU will get some in Nyeri and APK in Meru.
“URP will be the main party because it will get seats in Rift Valley and North Eastern region. I don’t see them winning a majority in Parliament. It will be like Kibaki’s PNU.”
Prof Kagwanja submittede that both Jubilee and Cord will be forced to seek the support of Amani coalition presidential candidate Musalia Mudavadi, who is likely to hold the third slot in the State House race.
“They will have to deal with Mudavadi but if he is won over by Cord, they can have problems governing. I am still seeing an opportunity in a post elections coalition, the idea of grand coalition to give it a sense of governability,” he stated.
Both Jubilee and Cord are in agreement that whichever coalition wins, they will continue to cooperate with ICC in the trials of four suspects, including Mr Kenyatta, facing charges of crimes against humanity.
“If the trials continue, the Jubilee presidential candidate has stated clearly that he will cooperate with the ICC. People have raised questions about how he will govern when he has a case at The Hague. In Jubilee, we can assure Kenyans that there will never be a power vacuum because of the ICC,” Mr Oloo said.
Prof Gumbe argued that even though Cord would have preferred local trials, they will not stand in the way of the ICC trials.
“Now the ICC is an independent process, which the Executive cannot interfere with because it will be tantamount to interfering with the Judiciary,” he stated.
Prof Kagwanja see the scenario differently.
He argued that if Mr Kenyatta wins, he will be under pressure from those around him to stop cooperating with the ICC.
“It will also be difficult even for the ICC to conduct the trials even though they will say they will comply,” he said.
He warns that a Kenyatta presidency will either make Kenya a pariah State or a rogue nation.
“The reality of practice of power will make it practically impossible for Uhuru to cooperate. I see Kenya oscillating between a pariah State and a rogue nation,” he said.
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