Race for governor takes shape with five days to polls

By DAVE OPIYO dopiyo@ke.nationmedia.com  ( email the author)

Posted  Tuesday, February 26  2013 at  20:02

In Summary

• Top candidates marginally higher than last week at the expense of the others, but the presidential race still remains too close to call, three new surverys commissioned by the Nation Media Group show.

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assistant minister and former Kisauni MP enjoys the support of 60.6 per cent of 695 respondents interviewed.

He has opened a 39.3 per cent lead against his closest challenger, Mr Suleiman Shahbal of the Wiper Democratic Party with only five days to the General Election.

According to the poll, Mr Shahbal would garner 21.3 per cent of the votes while TNA’s Abdalla Mwaruwa would only manage 5.8 per cent. 4.6 percent of the respondents were still undecided.

In the race for the senate, Consumer Insight said Mr Hassan would defeat former Tourism minister Najib Balala of the Republican Congress who came second with 25.5 per cent and ODM’s Ramadhan Kajembe who is third with 14.8 per cent. Of those polled, 8.8 per cent were undecided.

Consumer Insight conducted a similar poll in Kiambu, which showed TNA’s William Kabogo ahead of Mr James Nyoro of Narc.

The poll shows that if elections were held today, Mr Kabogo would garner 56.5 per cent against Mr Nyoro’s 38.6 per cent.

Others in the race garnered support of less than one per cent from the 678 voters sampled.

In the race for the senator’s position, TNA’s Paul Kimani Chege was in the lead with 56.2 per cent followed by Kanu’s Stanley Githunguri with 23.3 per cent.

ODM’s Solomon Mbiyu was a distant third with 4.6 per cent ahead of Narc’s Boniface Njau (3.2 per cent). 11.2 per cent of voters interviewed were still undecided.

The preferred women representative for the county is Annah Nyokabo of TNA with 51.2 percent.

Safina’s Wambui Ng’ang’a was a distant second with 10.6 per cent support while Margaret Njeri was third with 7.8 per cent.

All the polls had a margin of error of +/-2 with confidence levels of 95 per cent.

In Nairobi County, a separate poll by Infotrak Harris shows that ODM’s Evans Kidero was the man to beat in the race for the governor’s seat.

Mr Kidero was leading with 53.6 per cent of the 1,041 respondents saying they would vote for him.

His closest challenger, Mr Ferdinand Waititu of TNA, was second with 32.8 per cent while Jimnah Mbaru was third with six per cent.

Former Nairobi town clerk Philip Kisia was fourth with 1.4 per cent.

The race for Nairobi’s Senatorship is also a two horse race with TNA’s Mike Sonko in the lead with 55.5 per cent support against ODM’s Bishop Margaret Wanjiru who is second with 35.4 per cent.

The rest of the candidates are below one per cent, with 5.8 per cent of the respondents still undecided.

TNA’s Rachael Shebesh appears to be heading for a victory as she still leads the race for the Nairobi Women’s representative position.

Margin of error

According to the poll, the former nominated MP garnered 38.7 per cent, followed by ODM’s Sylvia Ming’ala who has 21.1 per cent.

Kenya National Congress’ Esther Passaris is third with 17.1 per cent. The polls had a margin of error of +/-3 with confidence levels of 95 per cent.

According to a different poll by Strategic Research, Planning minister Wycliffe Oparanya is having an edge over his closest rival – Housing minister Soita Shitanda — in the race for governor of Kakamega County.

The poll shows that Mr Oparanya of ODM is leading with 49.6 per cent of the 600 voters sampled, followed by Mr Shitanda’s 30.2 per cent.

Former provincial commissioner Paul Olando of UDF comes a distant third with 9.7 per cent.

In the race for the senator’s position, former Ikolomani MP Boni Khalwale of UDF is leading the contest, with 57.1 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for him.

The poll put Dr Khalwale ahead of the Federal Party of Kenya’s Cyrus Jirongo who garnered 32.1 per cent.

Shanyisa Anota of ODM and Anderson Murunga of TNA tied in the third position, all having five per cent.

Interestingly, the race for the county’s women representative is still open, owing to the high number of undecided voters who according to the poll, stand at 28 per cent.

However, ODM’s Rachel Amolo is in the lead with 27 per cent, followed by UDF’s Watsula Sarah with 16.2 per cent.

The polls conducted between Thursday and Saturday had a margen of error of +/- 2 per cent.