Amani coalition is neither a third force nor an alternate

By Adams Oloo

When Uhuru Kenyatta shortchanged Musalia Mudavadi and forced him out of Jubilee to Amani, the race became a two horse race between CORD and Jubilee.

Since then, Mudavadi has abandoned talk about 90 minutes and a first round win and pegged all his hopes on a second round that would see both horses seeking his support. But can Amani be a third force or in Mudavadi’s words an alternative? I highly doubt.

First, Mudavadi’s candidature has failed to galvanise the Luhya vote, the way other third forces did in previous years. Simeon Nyachae galvanised the Kisii vote in 2002 despite the presence of two horses namely Narc andKanu, while in 2007 Kalonzo Musyoka galvanised the Kamba vote despite the presence of two horses namely PNU and ODM.

Second, ever since he launched his candidature, Mudavadi has failed to penetrate Busia County, which remains formidably in the ODM column. The religious support for ODM and therefore CORD in this county is best illustrated by Chris Okemo’s defection from ODM to UDF when Amos Wako made his intentions known and his last-minute re-defection from UDF to Ford-Kenya, an affiliate of CORD at the last minute before party primaries. Okemo, by his action, was being politically prudent as the ground was CORD and not Amani and his only shot for the Senate seat could only be realised through a CORD affiliate party.

Third, Mudavadi’s UDF has been unable to penetrate the Bukusu dominated Bungoma and Trans-Nzoia counties. It was against this background that Mudavadi had to reach to Eugene Wamalwa’s New Ford-Kenya to gain a foothold in the two counties.

Fourth, Mudavadi’s reach to other Western politicians outside his backyard is negligible. For instance, all formidable Western politicians plying their political trade in Nairobi are in CORD. Likewise, all his UDF lieutenants have abandoned his national campaigns to battle for their political lives in their constituencies.

Fifth, Mudavadi’s own realisation that he would not make an impact in the presidential race and need a political soft landing was demonstrated when his party nominated him and his running mate for special seats right on the top of the pack. Although this was belatedly reported to have been withdrawn, the message had sunk.

Sixth, the CORD and Jubilee candidates boosted their support from areas they stood little chance of gaining traction by naming running mates from those areas that saw their respective ratings boosted immediately. Kalonzo and William Ruto were credible presidential candidates with massive following in their backyard, which transferred respectively to Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta. Amani failed to match this effort horses by choosing Jeremiah Kioni.

Seven, Amani lacks political beacons throughout the country to “lock in” votes. Kanu, its other main partner, is a shell of its old self and the credible candidates it has such as Gideon Moi, John Lonyangapuo, Hellen Sambili and Nick Salat attract support on their individual capacities and not necessarily from party gravitas.

Eight, Mudavadi, though having oscillated politically between a weak character, he buckled under pressure from the Moi regime when he abandoned the Kanu renegades in 2002, and strong character when he declined Kanu’s nomination offer and joined LDP to revive his political career has largely been seen as one used to political freebies.

His entry into politics was via a by-election courtesy of the death of his father and support from the senior Moi. Recently Uhuru confirmed to all and sundry an attempt to have him step down for Mudavadi, thus making allegations that Mudavadi was a “project” not far fetched. Could it be Mudavadi’s insistence to go all the way after being abandoned by Jubilee was also orchestrated to divide the Luhya vote? Time will tell.

One thing is for sure however, that Mudavadi is neither a third force nor an alternative force. This race is between CORD and Jubilee. I hope I am wrong, but I fear I am right.

The writer is Chairman of the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of Nairobi