Ruto, Uhuru camps seek House majority in polls

By Jacob Ng’etich     

Beneath the laughter and the smiles exuded by Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, and Eldoret North MP William Ruto after their talks over a pre-election agreement, a political battle over the supremacy of the next Parliament simmers.

The duel over who gets the biggest numbers in the House pits Ruto of the United Republican Party leader and Uhuru of TNA with the war being who will control the 350-member House.

The political jostling is informed by the fact that after the coming elections, much power will reside with Parliament.

On the other hand, there is a possibility that the two politicians who will begin trials at the International Criminals Court ICC in April could be consolidating their support base through a majority in Parliament in the unlikelihood they do not vie.

Talks over pact

The argument was lent credence when Uhuru and Ruto held talks on a possible pre-election pact with Kalonzo. According to the Constitution, Parliament will only play a legislative role and checking on the Executive.

The next House will be a nightmare for a President without a majority in Parliament. Without a majority, whoever is elected as the fourth President will become a lame duck, who cannot move the Government agenda in the House.

Uhuru’s consolidation of support in his backyard, which has seen political parties allied to Mt Kenya coming together under the TNA, is seen as a move by the Deputy Prime Minister to craft a possible majority in Parliament and also counter URP’s comparative advantage.

Assistant Minister Kareke Mbiuki, a close Uhuru ally, said TNA was the party to beat and the recent win of two parliamentary seats was a clear message to others.

Preferred party

 “TNA is the party of choice and anyone preaching anything else is not going anywhere. The region should remain in one party,” said Mbiuki.

The strategy for TNA is to ensure that each candidate elected in its stronghold would come from it and not affiliates.

Uhuru, through his spokesperson Munyori Buku, said he needed to consolidate his support to ensure a smooth run of the Government if he wins elections next year.

“For a party to say it can back a presidential candidate on a different party ticket and field its own candidates in other levels is defeatist in the new dispensation. The president, deputy president and cabinet secretaries will not be in Parliament. How then do you push not just a legislative agenda but also names of constitutional office holders which must be approved by the House?” Buku posed.

However, Dujis MP Adan Duale said URP was confident of a majority in the House given the groundwork the party had put in place.

“The design of our party from inception allows us to have a majority and many Kenyans know and have come to terms with a URP-dominated House next year,” said Duale.

He said the party enjoyed huge support of pastoralist communities. The Dujis MP said their campaign was two-pronged.

“We are preparing the ground for the party to not only secure the presidency and majority in Parliament but also in the senate seats in the General Election. Those paying attention to misleading opinion polls with get a rude shock,” said Duale.

Belgut MP Charles Keter said the URP election strategy was to win about 100 seats in the parliamentary and women representatives levels combined.

 “As a party, we have captured the aspirations of the minority communities from Rift Valley, Eastern, North Eastern and in the Coast provinces and this has made us enjoy a near fanatical support base across the country,” said Keter.

TNA targets a victory of at least 65 seats in Mt Kenya, parts of Rift valley, Coast, Nyanza and Nairobi.

Ruto’s interim secretariat, recently tasked to identify the parliamentary, senate and governor’s seats the party would likely win, indicated URP would easily clinch more than 87 seats in parliament.  

“These seats will come from the party strongholds of Rift Valley, potential seats from North Eastern and Coast provinces. URP could get between 80 and 90 seats,” said Dr Ogla Karani, the head of secretariat.

Both the parties have benefitted from defections from ODM and UDF parties, with more defections still expected.