ODM plan to battle G7 union

By Oscar Obonyo

As party rivals renew unity talks, Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement is planning a ?ght back to reclaim lost political ground. This follows a string of defections in key regions, weaker opinion poll results, and concern in the ranks over the risk of unfair primaries.

Besides a two-day strategy meeting by members of the party National Executive Council and Parliamentary Group, Raila hosts all aspirants for elective positions at the every election period and are not their real concerns. This notwithstanding, The Standard On Sunday has established that the fixation by members on the two issues clouded the Naivasha retreat.

As a result, decisions emerging from the meeting were aimed at allaying fears or addressing these two issues.

Local Government minister, Paul Otuoma, says ODM has merely lost the propaganda war on defections. He claims that the media have focused more on who is defecting from ODM than from other parties.

“What, for instance, is the rationale of hyping the defection of a nominated MP (Rachael Shebesh), as opposed to that of an elected MP and Assistant minister (Jebii Kilimo) from Rift Valley?” he asks.

 “There is no denying TNA have beaten us at the perception games. TNA is basically PNU, which split into over six parties. Now, when the so-called GNU, APK, Sisi Kwa Sisi, and PNU regroup, or if GG Kariuki, Betty Tett, and Maina Kamanda defect to TNA, we all think it is a huge plus for Uhuru. Nothing has changed because this is the same old political family.”

Great concern

Of great concern to ODM, is how to consolidate support in its strongholds. Raila’s strategists are particularly concerned about the Coast, owing to the disruptive activities of the Mombasa Republican Council (MRC). Many are still trying to make political sense of the recent attack on ODM-allied Fisheries minister, Amason Kingi, which left five people dead.

Dr Otuoma says the drama and the goings-on at the Coast may have a direct bearing on the party’s overall performance.

In the 2007 General Election, Coast Province was among the regions where the Orange party registered their strongest performance in the parliamentary and presidential poll. The party won 12 of 21 parliamentary seats.

Also, opinion polls indicate that Raila still enjoys majority support in Coast.? The PM recently welcomed Kinango MP, Gonzi Rai, from Ford-People.? ?

“The activities of MRC are likely to affect voter registration, voter turnout, and, in the long run, hurt not just the PM’s presidential bid, but also the democratic process,” warns Otuoma.

Tribal lines

ODM is also ruing Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi’s exit from the party, for weakening its hold on another of its crucial political constituency – Nairobi. Whether he left by design or was wooed out of the Orange party by rival party beneficiaries, members say that if city voters cast their ballots on tribal lines then Raila and Mudavadi-led parties stand to lose. The Luo and Luhya communities often vote as a bloc in Nairobi.??

The matrix of western Kenya, which largely voted in favour of Raila, has equally changed following the entry of Mudavadi in the race.

To regain control, sources in ODM have indicated to The Standard On Sunday that the party has opted to drum up the chorus of a “two-horse race”, to dissuade supporters from “wasting” their vote on fringe candidates.

As the Orange party works towards holding together, it is confronted with an old but renewed opposition from the Kalonzo-Uhuru-Ruto trio.

 A meeting of the Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister, Uhuru Kenyatta, and Eldoret North MP, William Ruto, on Thursday agreed to work together in the State House race.

Contacted for comment, Government Joint Chief Whip, Jakoyo Midiwo said ODM was not worried about the re-union: “They have been at it for years, and they can continue plotting, because Raila has always been ready to face whoever they choose.” ?

In the meantime, ODM is grappling with perception issues, one of them revolving around party nominations.

“There is a misleading and worrying perception out there, especially after the Ndhiwa case, that the nomination in ODM would not be a free and fair affair,” says Nambale MP, Chris Okemo.

 “While the move by Parliament to reduce the defection window to just a month partly allays these fears, we trust our party will address this concern.”

Party retreat

Midiwo denies the party retreat was a reaction to the defections from the party: “We have always held a retreat every end of the year, including this one which was planned for three weeks ago. We simply met to strategise over a number of issues, including internal polls and the General Election.”???

The Standard On Sunday has, however, independently established the party is taking the nomination concerns seriously. To demonstrate this, members of the new electoral board were invited to the NEC, and PG retreat in Naivasha. The board is to get its own offices in a show of autonomy.

“We are aware and prepared for the enormous challenges, considering that ODM is a huge party, with national support,” said Henry Muthee Kathurima, the elections board chairman. Kathurima explains that, in line with the new Constitution, the electoral board will accord every candidate an equal and fair chance to compete and opportunity “to serve in the ODM government or party”.  On his appointment, Kathurima endorsed Raila as the best man for president.