Pollsters ruffle feathers with latest ratings

By Stephen Makabila

There is growing restlessness over opinion poll results among presidential hopefuls and their allies.

Camps of Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka of the Wiper Democratic Movement, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi of UDF, and URP’s William Ruto are unhappy with the latest opinion trends, questioning their credibility.

In the Ipsos Synovate opinion polls released on Tuesday, Prime Minister Raila Odinga is still the most popular presidential aspirant in round one, with 36 per cent followed by Uhuru Kenyatta of TNA at 30 per cent.

 Mudavadi came in third at seven per cent, unchanged from July;?Ruto slipped from 12 per cent to six per cent support; Kalonzo has five per cent; Martha Karua, three per cent; and Peter Kenneth and Eugene Wamalwa at one per cent each.

Uhuru would win by 50 per cent in a run-off with Raila who would manage 42 per cent, with eight per cent of undecided voters. In a run-off between Mudavadi and Raila, the DPM would garner 47 per cent to Odinga’s 43 per cent.

First round

Ipsos Synovate Managing Director Margaret Ireri said Uhuru would be the biggest beneficiary in the event fellow G7 members Kalonzo and Ruto dropped off in the first round.

Officials of Kalonzo’s lobby together with Nominated MP Mohamed Affey have questioned why the VP’s rating have been on a down-ward trend even after consolidating support in his lower Eastern home turf and received endorsement in Kuria, and West Pokot.

Kalonzo allies believe some opinion polls are keen on shaping public perception not favourable to the VP.

“The VP’s concern has been that manipulated opinion polls heighten expectations of followers of those behind the scheme, giving them a false sense of victory, which when not realised lead to chaos,” said Affey.

Francis Mwangangi, the National co-ordinator of Wiper Ambassadors, Kalonzo’s campaign lobby, said opinion polls do not reflective the reality.

“Even if the VP has no support outside his own region, which is not the case, lower Eastern has a population of eight per cent of the national tally. How come he cannot go above eight per cent?” questioned Mwangangi.

Kalonzo will be out of action in local campaigns this weekend, as he left for Qatar on Friday for the International Telecommunication Union, where a Kenyan is to be elected president.

Mudavadi’s Director of Communication Kibisu Kabatesi said the logic of opinion polls do not make sense.

“We have noticed that it is always a contradiction when it reaches Mudavadi. How can the deputy premier get as low as seven per cent in round one, then in round two, he beats the Prime Minister? Something is missing and the polls are either not credible or manipulated,” added Kabatesi.

Run-off

He said it would only make sense if Mudavadi were close to Uhuru and Raila or in between them for him to win in a run-off against the PM.

“The only positive thing about these polls is that the DPM has overtaken many aspirants, who started years ahead of him,” added Kabatesi.

UDF First Secretary General Abraham Limo said the opinions poll did not represent the real picture.

“Mudavadi?shifted?to UDF with several MPs from ODM, PNU, and?New Ford Kenya and that tilted?the scales?against Raila,” Limo said.

Mr Kipchumba Murkomen, a lawyer, said the opinion polls were conducted in a clear scheme to justify the two-horse race theory in the General Election, which would not be the case in March 4 polls.

“The ratings and rankings were exaggerated as no candidate in my opinion would garner more than 30 per cent in the first round, as it is clear the voters would support candidates from their regions,” Murkomen said.

Dujis MP Adan Duale also poked holes into Tuesday poll by Ipsos Synovate Group. 

Duale of URP termed the opinion polls as flawed, saying Ruto, Mudavadi, and Kalonzo have huge support.

But for ODM, the latest opinion polls results may not have rattled it much. Assistant Minister Magerer Langat said ODM took the outcome of the polls positively, as it was a wake-up call that a lot needs to be done to woo voters to support Raila for president.