Why Nairobi will remain political hotbed next year

By Abdikadir Sugow

The seat of President will be won or lost in Nairobi County in the General Election, analysts say.

The capital will also see the hottest battles for governor, senator, Members of Parliament, county representative and women’s representative.

Nairobi remains the main focus under the new Constitution, not only because it is the capital city, the economic and administrative hub of the region, but also because it remains the national political hotbed.

As candidates gear up for polls next year, it is becoming apparent parties’ influence in the public domain and the individual output of aspirants will play a big part on who will win.

This realisation has sent party operatives scrambling for the rich harvest of political opportunities.

Long gone are the days when it was known as the ‘Green City in the Sun’, but Nairobi still attracts thousands of migrants from different parts of the country seeking opportunities. The population has ballooned to about four million.

Political fortunes

These migrants have made Nairobi a cosmopolitan city where ethnicity plays out in the determination of political fortunes, depending on the region where communities reside.

The Luo and Luhya from western Kenya have always exerted influence on the outcomes alongside their brethren from the Kikuyu, Kamba, and Maasai communities whose ancestral homes are nearer to the city.

Politicians are among those seeking the fortunes occasioned by the new Constitution and the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) that has seen Nairobi get a lion’s share of available electoral seats in Nairobi County which will control an annual budget of Sh12 billion under the devolved system of governance.

Nairobi now has 17 parliamentary constituencies, up from eight before the gazettment of the delineated boundaries. Apart from the Governor’s position which is shaping up for a titanic battle, there are 17 parliamentary seats up for grabs and the aspirants are already emerging to stake their claim.

Based on the 2009 Census, Westlands leads with a population of 203,880 and the lowest is Kawangware, with 156,408. Embakasi, carved off the old one which was previously the leading, has 201,042, Kariobangi (181,488), Kayole (175,949), Mihango (163,868), Umoja (183,000) and Makadara (192,000).

Kamukunji has 193,980, Starehe (172,118), Mathare (193,436), Dagoretti (180,736), Karen-Lang’ata (196,278), Kibera (194,264), Kasarani (185,886), Roysambu (191,960), and Ruaraka (194,120), offering a rich harvest of votes from 74 Nairobi County wards.

Different groups of party leaders and members have been holding secret meetings in discreet venues to lay strategies to capture the available seats, including those of the County Representatives now covering larger areas than those previously under councillors.

The latest indications on the ground are that the same old power politics that have been witnessed previously are beginning to emerge ahead of the elections.

Individual presidential aspirants and their close allies have already set up their political apparatus and the campaign mode is currently trending three political parties – Raila Odinga’s ODM, Uhuru Kenyatta’s The National Alliance (TNA) and the Party of National Unity (PNU), whose presidential candidate George Saitoti died in an air crash two months ago.

Uphill task

Gichugu MP Martha Karua’s Narc Kenya, William Ruto’s United Republican Party (URP) and Musalia Mudavadi’s United Democratic Front (UDF) are itching to spoil the party for the big guns, but they face an uphill task, given the high stakes and tricky dynamics of Nairobi politics.

Some of the hopefuls, particularly those seeking the seat of Governor, have set up secretariats and assembled campaign machinery worth millions of shillings, complete with helicopters, fleets of vehicles and professional employees on the payroll.

The coveted seat of Nairobi County Governor will be hotly contested and a number of well-known personalities have already declared their interest in the capital city and headquarters of all the arms of Government. Whoever will become Governor will be at the centre of power, wielding immense influence and controlling a huge financial base.

The main political parties face the challenge of identifying and nominating a patriotic candidate that ordinary residents will be comfortable with – one who cuts across the ethnic barrier and with a background in skillful management of public affairs.

Among the candidates being mentioned for the post are Dyer and Blair Investment Bank Chairman Jimnah Mbaru, who has previously worked with Raila, Mudavadi, Uhuru and William Ruto of URP.

Mr Mbaru and Raila belonged to the original Ford, which tirelessly fought for constitutional changes. Mbaru also worked with Uhuru when they were members of the National Economic and Social Council.

Uhuru will desperately need Mbaru’s support to consolidate the Nairobi Kikuyu votes, especially those from Murang’a. He is also likely to get attention from Mudavadi, having worked with him during his tenure as Finance minister when he was the chairman of the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE). Mbaru worked with Ruto as chairman of the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) when the latter was Minister for Agriculture.

Mbaru will probably go head-to-head with Embakasi MP Ferdinand Waititu for the TNA party nomination, but sources indicate he might decide to run as independent candidate to avoid the combative and flamboyant Waititu, who hails from Kiambu.

For the ODM ticket, former Mumias Sugar CEO Evans Kidero alias “EK” will most likely battle it out with immediate former Town Clerk Phillip Kisia.

Kidero, who hails from Homa Bay County, is said to be surrounded by individuals with little experience and knowledge of city politics but has already set-up the Evans Kidero Centre in Kileleshwa to work on his campaigns, which is already gathering momentum. He is said to have the outright support of AFC Leopards fans and the youth.

Kisia, who hails from Western, has kept his cards close to his chest and has only been meeting close allies. Timothy Muriuki, the chairman of the Nairobi Central Business District Association, businessmen Chris Kirubi and Kevin Malinga alias “Kevo” are also reportedly in the race for Nairobi County Governor.

Former Nairobi Mayor Dick Waweru says Nairobi will require a serious Governor with sound financial management experience to run the city’s affairs. Mr Waweru will contest the new Kasarani constituency which was carved from Embakasi constituency.

Tribal support

He says it will take resilience, hard work and money for one to become the Governor of Nairobi, adding that those who may be banking on tribal politics to be wary since Nairobians will go for a performer and defy ethnic voting patterns.

For the Senator’s seat, maverick and political heavyweight Westlands MP Fred Gumo will first battle it out for the ODM ticket with the outgoing Kasarani MP Elizabeth Ongoro, whose star as a politician in Nairobi is rising fast.

She previously run and owned Kenya Refuse Handlers, a company that was previously contracted and successfully cleaned the city. Ongoro is a close ally of Ida Odinga, the wife of the Prime Minister.

In the same Senator race, outgoing Dagoretti MP Beth Mugo, Makadara MP Mike Mbuvi “Sonko” and former Starehe MP Maina Kamanda might run on their respective parties of TNA, Narc Kenya and PNU. So far there is no agreement between these parties to undertake joint nominations to pick one candidate to face other aspirants.

Sources indicate that should the three go for a joint nomination, Sonko is likely to win because Kamanda and Mugo could split the Kikuyu votes while the Makadara MP may take the Kamba vote as a bloc to add to those of the youth who massively support him.

Unless they reconcile in the near future, Kamanda, who was close ally of the late Saitoti, is not in the same political camp with Mugo and Waititu who hail from Kiambu. Kamanda, a former Sports Minister and who hails from Murang’a, is a shrewd politician who has immense political influence in Nairobi.

Former city MPs Betty Tett and Wathika and a number of councillors are said to be in the Kamanda camp – and if this game of influence continues, analysts are warning that it might jeopardise Uhuru’s chances of controlling Nairobi politics as a presidential candidate. All in all, Nairobi will continue to enjoy its reputation as the epicentre of high-octane politics before and during the next General Election.