Saturday, August 18, 2012

Scramble for Uhuru


By Oscar Obonyo
Allies of United Democratic Forum leader Musalia Mudavadi are angling for him to elbow his way back into an apparently stalled deal with TNA’s Uhuru Kenyatta over who gets to run for president with the other’s support.
They see the two Deputy Prime Ministers as the most formidable pairing with a strong chance of delivering a viable presidential candidate from western Kenya. In pursuit of their goal, they are keen to push aside Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa, who has Uhuru’s public blessing as the G7 pointman in the region.
They say voters are ready for Mudavadi’s candidacy, which offers an alternative to central Kenya domination as well as to divisive politics. Despite a secret pledge to Wamalwa in April, Uhuru could find himself in the enviable if delicate position of having to choose between Musalia and Eugene.
The Gatundu South MP’s game plan could be to keep the door open to both Mudavadi and Wamalwa, despite strongly hinting he wants the Saboti MP as his running mate.
While Wamalwa and Uhuru have been connected under the informal G7 arrangement, Mudavadi started gravitating towards the Gatundu South MP’s corner in May, after decamping from Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Uhuru and Wamalwa’s dalliance has been very public. While we have received reports of some overtures from Mudavadi to Uhuru, we could not independently establish whether the two Deputy PMs have had any meetings to discuss a joint strategy since Musalia left ODM.
Housing minister Soita Shitanda, a Mudavadi ally, insists Musalia’s candidacy has never been dependent on anyone’s backing. He says the Sabatia MP opted out of ODM in response to public demand, not because he was anticipating Uhuru’s support.
 The minister attributes the widely believed notion of the DPM as a “compromise candidate”, to the need for change in leadership. He says Kenyans expect a president whose background differs from the three previous holders of the seat.
A few months ago, strategists looking at an Uhuru-Musalia pairing proposed a plan under which the two get ready to run against each other in separate outfits, with a mind to converging after the first ballot. This ‘second round’ plan was, however, allegedly dropped when the setting of trial dates for the International Criminal Court case Uhuru faces introduced new challenges.
The same sources now say Uhuru, 51, and Mudavadi, 51, could still come together before the presidential race.
Wamalwa, however, maintains that Mudavadi is “not part of our game plan”. The minister says that Uhuru, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, and himself will on Thursday finally solidify the G7 pact during the ninth anniversary of Vice-President Michael Kijana Wamalwa’s death. 
The minister, a younger brother to the late VP, says the trio will give a definite direction as to where they are headed during the event to be held in Kitale on August 23.
But the Mudavadi-Wamalwa drama could be spiced up by the presence of President Kibaki at the Kitale event. While the President has said he has no preferred candidate, there has been no end to speculation as to whether he has given silent blessing to Mudavadi. Thus, with a Uhuru-Wamalwa announcement expected, the President’s anticipated presence in Kitale is likely to generate political friction.
Fierce battles
“Given that this anniversary will be the last during his final term in office, it would be a most welcome idea if the President graces the memorial service of his former loyal VP,” Wamalwa told The Standard. “However, probably because of his busy diary, we are yet to receive confirmation.”
Asked whether Mudavadi was part of the mix, Wamalwa was evasive: “Mudavadi’s UDF is not really part of the G7, although he has been stating during campaigns that he will work with Uhuru and Ruto. He is welcome to the grouping like any other like-minded political figure.”
Efforts to reach Ruto for comment over the Kitale event proved fruitless, as the URP leader was said to be busy on the campaign trail. However, The Standard independently established that Ruto is scheduled to preside over another function in Kilgoris on the same date. 
“We are unable to confirm whether or not mheshimiwa will be in Kitale. What is clear, though, is that Ruto is engrossed in his own presidential campaigns as well as popularising URP,” said our source.
Since Mudavadi bolted out of ODM, he and Wamalwa have engaged in quiet but fierce battles to win Uhuru’s favour. One main factor persuades the scramble for Uhuru – the possibility of him opting out or being barred from participating in the presidential poll, and turning his numbers to another hopeful.
The battle is accordingly not just about Uhuru’s attention, but his possible endorsement for the big seat. Maintaining, however, that the DPM remains firmly in the presidential race, Uhuru’s spokesman, Munyori Buku says: “Mr Kenyatta is ready to work with like-minded leaders and parties as a basis of national unity, peace and reconciliation. This way, Kenyans will bake the national cake together and share it together.”
Nonetheless, tension over the Mudavadi-Wamalwa affair remains alive. Asked, who between the two the Gatundu South MP was in political partnership with, Mathira MP who is also chairman of Central Kenya MPs Parliamentary Group, declined to comment, citing the “sensitive nature of the matter”.
However, Mudavadi’s spokesman Kibisu Kabatesi maintains Mudavadi is not in any political contest with Wamalwa. This notion is shared by a host of MPs from western Kenya who believe the New Ford-Kenya party leader ought to give way for his politically senior Luhya kinsman.
“We are running an absolutely independent campaign and have little to do with the sideshows the Justice minister is trying to draw us into,” reacts Kabatesi.
“We are not in competition with someone who is trying to be a running mate of another presidential aspirant.” But even within the Uhuru camp, opinion is divided as to whom to work with. To some, it is all about numbers and on this count the Saboti legislator is the better bet.
“Why would you dump someone who has an estimated support of 40 per cent of the Luhya (Bukusu sub-tribe) and opt for a guy who is scrambling for the remainder 60 per cent with Eugene and Tinga (Raila)?” poses the TNA operative.



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