Presidential aspirants roll up sleeves for dirty campaign
By EMEKA-MAYAKA GEKARA gmayaka@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Saturday, August 18 2012 at 23:31
Posted Saturday, August 18 2012 at 23:31
IN SUMMARY
- The poll is shaping up mainly as a contest amongst the Big Five: Prime Minister Raila Odinga, his two deputies Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Eldoret North MP William Ruto.
- Last week’s court case testing the integrity of the Big Five, a book by Miguna Miguna which accuses the PM of corruption and efforts by Mr Tony Gachoka, another former Odinga aide, to associate the Premier with the 2007/8 violence are seen as part of this campaign.
- The election will be the first under the new Constitution which has radically altered the country’s governance structures and placed high demands on leaders, especially integrity.
Americans would say that Kenyan presidential candidates have taken the “low road” to State House.
This describes a political campaign in which candidates resort to excavation of dirt, court action and making of wild allegations to paint rivals as individuals voters should run away from.
For the past couple of months, political debate in Kenya has been increasingly acidic and it is getting even murkier.
In a conversation with the Sunday Nation, key politicians across the grand coalition were in agreement that the March 2013 event will be the “most emotive, high-stake election since independence”.
That is why the principal contenders will pull every trick in the book to help them win. But why?
A number of factors make the next election far different compared to previous polls—including the dramatic 2002 contest which saw the fall of Kanu, a party that had been in power since independence.
The poll is shaping up mainly as a contest amongst the Big Five: Prime Minister Raila Odinga, his two deputies Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Eldoret North MP William Ruto. (READ: Bid to bar Raila and Kalonzo from polls)
This will be a “transitional” election in which the incumbent, President Kibaki, will not be seeking re-election.
It will also be the first under the new Constitution which has radically altered the country’s governance structures and placed high demands on leaders, especially integrity.
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Then there are the issues of age, the International Criminal Court, ethnic rivalry, what one commentator characterised as “restlessness” in the Kibaki inner circle—and even luck.
“The stakes are very high. It is not business as usual,” said Dujis MP Aden Duale, a founder member of Mr Ruto’s United Republican Party.
“Politicians are finding new ways of fighting their opponents. It is a strategy to deflate their opponents,” he said acknowledging the increasingly dirty political campaigns.
“That is why candidates are trying to dig out the dirty past of their rivals. It will get worse as days go by.”
Last week’s court case testing the integrity of the Big Five, a book by Miguna Miguna which accuses the PM of corruption and efforts by Mr Tony Gachoka, another former Odinga aide, to associate the Premier with the 2007/8 violence are seen as part of this campaign.
Mandera Central MP Abdikadir Mohammed says the coming election is complicated by the new Constitution which has set new standards and the aftermaths of the last poll, particularly the ICC cases involving Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto.
The two are fighting crimes against humanity charges allegedly committed during the post-election violence. Their trial starts in April next year.
Despite the cases, the two who have sworn to block Mr Odinga from ascending to the top seat, are under pressure from their supporters to run for the presidency.
“Age is also catching up with some of the candidates who have invested their emotions, ambitions and money in the seat. There are those who want to keep it ethnic and raise temperatures,” says Mr Mohammed. Former South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara agrees.
He says that it will be a do-or-die election especially for the aging Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka who see this as their “best and last chance”.
“They are in their sunset days politically and see it as their last chance. The country is ready to retire them from politics after the next election,” he says.
“This election could put the last nail in the political coffins of some politicians who have been on the scene for decades. For instance Raila must win this election or retire.”
With more than 25 years in Parliament, Mr Musyoka considers himself the more experienced politician on President Kibaki’s side of the coalition.
Mr Musyoka’s supporters argue that the President and his community should return the favour in March next year, a possibility which is increasingly becoming remote.
“The odds are against him. He positions himself well but luck is not on his side,” says Mr Magara.
Former Ntonyiri MP Maoka Maore, an Odinga ally, argues that with the ICC charges lingering over Mr Kenyatta’s head, the Kibaki inner circle is restless that there is no automatic successor from the centre.
“They have resorted to a scorched earth policy. They want to go down with everybody,” he argues.
“There is a saying that after me the flood. They want to collapse the bridge after they have crossed to the other side so that everybody else can be washed away by the floods.”
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Mr Herbett Kerre, a lecturer at the Kabianga University College, says there is “nervousness around the centre”.
“The election will be a contest between the new and old Kenya. The power elite which has been enjoying power feels threatened and is responding to their realisation that the status quo will change.”
Mr Magara, the former ODM treasurer who is now campaigning for Mr Ruto, says Mr Kenyatta’s candidacy is mainly driven by pressure from his community.
“Despite the odds he [Mr Kenyatta] is facing, his community is insisting that he must be relevant. He doesn’t want to lose the community,” he says.
Mr Mudavadi is “seeing a window” and his candidacy is given impetus be the ICC factor, says Mr Magara. The argument here is that Mr Mudavadi’s campaign appears hinged on the possible absence of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto from the ballot.
Mr Ruto has packaged himself as youthful, energetic performer with the support of the populous Kalenjin Rift Valley, but the ICC case still remains a major hurdle.
But even with this, the fate of the Big Five may as well lie with the courts. A group of activists have moved to the High Court seeking an opinion on whether the Big Five should be allowed to run for the presidency due to integrity questions.
Their case is rooted in the much quoted Chapter Six of the Constitution which addresses leadership and integrity. The chapter demands that public officials — including the President —bring “honour” and “dignity” to the nation and offices they occupy.
The enduring question is: Who will pass the integrity test? According to the activists, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto should be barred from running due to the ICC cases.
In the court documents, they questioned Mr Odinga’s education record and also link him to graft, violence and the failed 1982 coup. They alleged that he was not eligible and did not undertake any secondary school education in Kenya.
Nobody was spared. They charged that Mr Musyoka is unfit to be president saying he was found guilty of fraud and contempt of court.
They also accuse him of using his his office to acquire a radio frequency using a company called Athiani Holdings as well as illegally acquiring public land at Masongaleni Settlement scheme.
They accuse Mr Mudavadi of grabbing land owned by Nairobi City Council at Woodley estate and misleading the Goldenberg Commission. The Sabatia MP is further accused of calling for mass action that led to the post-election violence.
A high level source who requested not to be identified linked the belated inclusion of Mr Musyoka, Mr Odinga and Mr Mudavadi in the case to one of their rivals.
“Mr Odinga is sufficiently injured and the other two have been going round claiming to be clean. He is determined to ensure nobody purports to be clean.”
A senior Odinga adviser who also sought anonymity said that their team had noted that the campaign was getting dirtier. He said that they have set up an arm to deal with what he called “dirt from the other side”.
“We shall drag them in their own mud so that by the time we are through with them, their friends will not recorganise or want to be associated with them.”
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