Chief mediator and former South African president, Thabo Mbeki (Right), and his fellow mediator Pierre Buyoya give a press conference after crisis talks between Sudan and South Sudan failed to reach a breakthrough in Addis Ababa on April 4, 2012. Photo/AFP
By MURITHI MUTIGA mmutiga@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Saturday, April 7 2012 at 22:30
Posted Saturday, April 7 2012 at 22:30
IN SUMMARY
Uganda and Ethiopia are also being drawn into the delicate diplomatic dance over the simmering Sudan crisis
Throughout the 20 years in which the second Sudan civil war was fought at its doorstep, Kenya worked hard to cultivate the image of a neutral observer.
It hosted the victims – hundreds of thousands of Southerners displaced by the North’s bombing campaigns – while at the same time arranging peace talks between the man who sent the bombers, President Omar al-Bashir, and the South’s leader John Garang.
Now, as Sudan and South Sudan hurtle towards a fresh conflict after months of dispute over the terms of their separation, Kenya finds itself in a far more complicated situation than what existed before the 2005 peace deal was signed in Nairobi.
The new state created after Southerners overwhelmingly voted for independence is increasingly integrated with Kenya, and that relationship is deepening. Kenyan investors have swarmed into South Sudan with their banks, insurance comapnies, construction firms and other activities involved in the booming business of reconstruction there.
Economic divorce
At home, Kenya is planning to build a new port in Lamu to serve as an outlet to the sea for South Sudan, reducing its dependence on the North even further and effectively completing the economic divorce between Juba and Khartoum.
After years of sitting on the fence, Kenya can no longer claim to be a disinterested actor in its northern neighbours’ conflict.
“It has always been clear where Kenya’s heart is,” international relations professor Macharia Munene says of the country’s relationship with South Sudan.
“But having played host to the peace talks, it still has some cards to play with the North. It is in Kenya’s interest to work hard now to defuse the tension because war will be costly. It might mean that some of the resources being budgeted for these mega projects will be channelled in different directions.”
Sudan and South Sudan have been bitterly at odds since 99 per cent of the South’s electorate voted for secession in a referendum in January last year.
That vote was a key element of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement which established a five-year window within which the two neighbours would try to work together after which the South had the right to vote whether to remain with Sudan or opt for independence.
But since the people returned a crushing verdict in favour of separation, the two neighbours have been at odds over a wide range of issues surrounding the split.
They are struggling to agree on the demarcation of their long border, the fate of the oil-rich Abyei region which is claimed by both sides, cross-border movement by residents and a raft of other issues.
Things took a turn for the worse from December when Juba accused Khartoum of launching bomb attacks on oil installations inside South Sudan. South Sudan Information minister Barnaba Marial Benjamin said in Nairobi last week that the attacks are meant to discourage investors who plan to finance the construction of a pipeline to Kenya.
Khartoum, on the other hand, accuses South Sudan of arming rebels fighting for independence from Sudan in the South Khordofan region.
The inhabitants of that region in the Nuba mountains are ethnic cousins of some of the Southerners, but their region falls in the geographic North. They are the primary victims of the escalating crisis as they have been caught in a wave of bombings by Khartoum that has sent many of them into hiding in caves.
The media on both sides seem to be beating the war drums with coverage of the crisis taking an increasingly jingoistic tone. Analysts predict that countries in the region will inevitably be sucked into the conflict if war breaks out.
In Kampala, President Yoweri Museveni has openly declared that Ugandan forces will fight side-by-side with the South. Speaking after a meeting with a Sudanese delegation, Mr Museveni asked Khartoum to respect the South’s status as a sovereign state, saying they had “voted twice democratically” for independence.
Kenya is likely to be more cautious. It has already been sucked into rare military action in Somalia, a complex theatre where many international players have an interest. Prof Munene says the administration in Nairobi should focus its efforts on diplomacy.
“We should make our stand clear to Khartoum that we are not impressed. In this standoff South Sudan appears to be the aggrieved party. We should lobby other African countries and the African Union to take a position just as they did on Mali.”
Prof Munene says Khartoum’s concerns about economic isolation should be solved through dialogue rather than bombs.
“It was always clear that the North was not happy with the referendum outcome. Their position was that the new state would not be sustainable. Now they are trying to turn that into a self-fulfilling prophecy by attacking the South. But Africa should not allow the world’s youngest state to be destroyed before it can walk.”
Neighbours such as Kenya and Uganda and lately Ethiopia, which is also banking on the Lamu port project, are not alone in being drawn into the delicate diplomatic dance over the Sudan crisis.
On April 2, US President Barack Obama called South Sudan’s Salva Kiir to express concerns about the mounting tensions. He urged the administration in Juba to avoid arming rebels in South Khordofan.
That last point highlights how complicated the conflict is because while South Sudan seceded as part of an internationally recognised agreement, South Khordofan falls within Sudan’s borders, and Khartoum says it is fighting the rebels there as any government would tackle secessionists.
China, a traditional ally of the North, is, on the other hand, struggling to maintain that relationship while working hard to build new ties with the oil-rich South. Their efforts are the subject of a new International Crisis Group report highlighting Beijing’s dilemma.
“China’s cultivation of new political and economic relations has been most visible in the surge of bilateral exchanges with Juba over the last year, which is expected to be capped in the coming weeks by President Salva Kiir’s first visit to Beijing as head of state.
As they seek to build bridges with the South, the Chinese are keen to draw comparisons with their own experience of economic transformation and rapid rural development, as well as to emphasise a sense of shared historical experience at the hands of imperial powers,” the report said.
Juba’s elite
“Some of Juba’s elite remain hesitant about putting too many eggs in one basket, and even those most eager to secure a major economic partnership argue there will be no Chinese monopoly. Beijing affirmed in January 2012 its intent to offer an economic package, including development grants and a possible billion-dollar infrastructure loan, and details are being negotiated. But new uncertainty over the future of Juba’s oil sector and continued North-South instability have altered the equation and may reduce the total offered in the end.”
All these investment plans ultimately depend on whether the two sides can find peace. And their statements as reported by the Sudan Tribune on Friday after the latest round of talks in Addis Ababa collapsed illustrate the fact that they are as far apart as ever.
Sudan’s Defence minister Abdel-Rahim Hussein said they had declined to sign the deal in the Ethiopian capital because they needed more time to consult Khartoum, while South Sudan’s lead negotiator Pagan Amum claimed the Sudanese were being less than honest.
“I am happy to inform you that on our side, we were ready. Our minister of Defence was ready to sign the security agreement but the Sudanese delegation, while we were still discussing the paper presented by the facilitators, sneaked out of the hotel where they were accommodated and returned to Khartoum without signing the agreement.”
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