By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted Saturday, April 21 2012 at 17:54
Posted Saturday, April 21 2012 at 17:54
IN SUMMARY
- True colours: Mudavadi has shown his true colours. The problem wasn’t about internal democracy. That was only the excuse
My crystal ball is back – with a vengeance. The hype about the impending departure of Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi from ODM is much ado about nothing. I have concluded that Mr Mudavadi is more of a liability than an asset to ODM.
Think about it. The man doesn’t have a single remarkable achievement, or crowning accomplishment to his credit. He’s a sober man, but sobriety alone shouldn’t earn one the leadership of a nation.
Which begs the question – has Mr Mudavadi ever shown any vision, or leadership, for reform? You know the answer. He’s got this far solely on pedigree and tribe. There are four reasons Mr Mudavadi’s departure from ODM will be a blessing to the party.
Let me say a word about ODM. The original logic and calculus behind ODM was wrong-headed. It was a broad anti-PNU tribal tent. ODM mandarins figured that you win elections in Kenya by cobbling alliances of leading “tribal chiefs”.
PNU was born of the same warped logic. It’s been the logic of all political parties since multipartyism returned in 1991.
That’s why ODM’s so-called Pentagon was a collection of key “tribal chiefs” from Kenya’s largest groups. Nothing else united the Pentagon members.
Except for ODM leader Raila Odinga and Kitui Central MP Charity Ngilu, none of the others could claim a single reformist credential. Most were former regime elements with deep connections to the repressive Kanu state.
Mr Mudavadi’s departure would clear the deck for ODM to reconceive itself as a reformist party. ODM should seize the moment to recalibrate its political project.
It can turn itself from a grouping of “tribal chiefs” to an ideologically-driven party. This ought to draw a sharp contrast with the G7 Alliance – or the latest PNU reincarnation – which is stuck in the politics of tribal mobilisation.
The Pentagon was a fake structure. Its dissolution should give way to an issue-oriented political platform. We know that Kenya is facing the most pivotal election since independence.
That’s why Mr Mudavadi’s departure would give ODM an opportunity to nominate the best running mate without regard to tribal identity and its corrosive math.
Second, Mr Mudavadi is perhaps one of the most prominent political scions of former President Daniel arap Moi. Mr Moi’s political children – now known colloquially as Moi’s Orphans – are regrouping under the aegis of Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.
This group brings together Eldoret North MP William Ruto with PNU ideologue Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi, Internal Security minister George Saitoti, and VP Kalonzo Musyoka.
I believe their goal – which is a democratic right – is to deny Mr Odinga the keys to State House. Mr Mudavadi’s entry into this group would give Kenyans a clear choice between Mr Odinga and the “PNU” candidate.
I have a very strong suspicion that Mr Mudavadi will eventually become the G7 presidential candidate.
Third, Kenya is facing very challenging political decisions. None of those is more loaded than the matter of the Ocampo Four. My belief is that more than anything else how Kenya handles its relationship with the International Criminal Court will have a domino effect.
When the cases against the Ocampo begin – as they soon will – the Kenyan state will have to make “hard choices”.
Will President Mwai Kibaki – or his successor – arrest the four and hand them over to ICC if the situation so demands? I think Mr Mudavadi’s departure from ODM makes it likely that an ODM government would oblige the ICC.
Failing to do so would quickly turn Kenya into a pariah state.
Fourth, Mr Mudavadi’s departure from ODM is likely to prove that the Luhya aren’t as tribal as their leaders make them out to be. Mr Mudavadi’s card against ODM has been his purported “control” of the populous Luhya vote. But this is more phantom and fiction than real.
Don’t forget he lost his Sabatia parliamentary seat as vice-president in 2002 when he was Mr Kenyatta’s “running mate”.
The Luhya voters defied the pull of the tribe and voted for the reformist Narc with the rest of the country. That’s why ODM shouldn’t use tribal proxies to hunt for votes. There’s no demonstrable evidence that ODM’s popularity in Luhya country is due to Mr Mudavadi.
Much is made of the disintegration of the ODM Pentagon. Critics cite it as an example of Mr Odinga’s inability to hold on to allies.
But consider this – which leader in Kenya, including Mr Kibaki – has kept allies together for more than a couple of years?
Have you forgotten how Mr Kibaki’s Narc Summit quickly evaporated? Mr Kenyatta’s Kanu has imploded right before our eyes. Mr Ruto’s UDM died even before it took off.
What about Mr Murungi’s various PNU “buses” none of which seem to ever leave the station? VP Musyoka is constantly putting out fires in Wiper-ODM.
The problem isn’t Mr Odinga. It’s that Kenyan political parties are a fiction built on stilts – nothing else but tribal potentates.
But I think Mr Mudavadi will be more at home wherever he finally lands. That’s because he was never comfortable in ODM. He and Mr Odinga are cut from vastly different political cloths. They are like oil and vinegar. Never mix the two.
I’ve always wondered when the end would come. I’m not surprised it’s come on the eve of the most pivotal election in Kenya’s history. As they say, we are who we are, no matter how much we pretend to be different. Mr Mudavadi has shown his true colours.
The problem wasn’t about internal democracy. That was only the excuse.
Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at SUNY Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.
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