Is Mudavadi diminishing value of his asset?

Let us get one thing right; Mr Musalia Mudavadi has no party and is staking out in the cold hoping someone he can trust can take him in. Trust because the guy who will welcome him into his abode has to be confident he is of good character, with respectable sleeping habits, normal and healthy associations, and is not a pest who will live off his host.

After gamboling and snorting outside Orange Democratic Movement, which is Mr Raila Odinga¡¯s kraal until he was almost gored by other bulls, the son of Substone Mudamba a.k.a Moses Mudavadi is yet to leave the ODM¡¯s cold veranda. Either there have not been that many suitors as he expected, or he sees in many of their faces, legacies of one-night political stands.

The danger, however, lies in one fact as women and men who have put themselves too long on the marriage market, but spent too much time on the junction of indecisiveness know, time is precious but elastic. If you squander it you may end up with the wrong choice or go back to where you started off, tail curled between your legs.

Before we come to Mudavadi and his natural ambivalence and slowness in ¡®reading¡¯ the clouds, let us walk in the footsteps of two analogies. But let us first point out Mudavadi may be at the junction of indecision because of bad memories from 2002 when he turned halfway up the stream and swam backwards towards Baba Na Mama party.

On the frontal steps of Kanu the ¡®germs¡¯ he had gathered at Railways Club where he was welcomed by Mr Raila Odinga into the opposition, were fumigated by Baba and he came out a sparkling Vice President ¡ª but sadly for only three months!

The reverse gear cost him the Sabatia seat and he was even too embarrassed to accept the offer of Nominated MP though he almost went into trance when he was welcomed back as the prodigal son and garlanded as Mr Uhuru Kenyatta¡¯s running mate.

Many liked Mudavadi after all the heehaw, but few would ever imagine that the Professor of Politics would have picked the wrong bull for the contest or had run out of rabbits to pull out of his hat.

But as it were Kanu lost big, Mudavadi even more, and he wallowed in the wilderness until Raila five years later picked him up and dusted off from his clothes the smudge of political oblivion.

Analogy One: Mudavadi should have had the wisdom of that village herdsboy, who while out grazing livestock keeps checking the sky for signs of rain. If the boy who has the skills of even literally ¡®smelling¡¯ ¡ª and the knowledge of clouds that bear rains ¡ª forecasts a downfall, he drives his father¡¯s animals home before the usual time.

He must also calculate when to leave so the rain does not catch him on the way and he ends up lost and separated from the herd, or loses the calves, or even ends up seeking refuge at someone¡¯s home until.

In Mudavadi¡¯s wavering we see lack of this boy¡¯s wisdom and today it is raining and he is sheltering under a tree, not sure whether to go back or get into someone¡¯s home. Worse still, his flock are confused and lost, and wonder what is wrong with the shepherd.

All at the same time

If he had a party of his own on the sidelines, or a Plan B, he would not be negotiating with almost every one; Ngilu, Eugene, Ruto, Uhuru, and even Mukhisa Kituyi, from the position of disadvantage. Yet again, he should also have known that the window for parties¡¯ compliance with the new Act is April 30, so he can¡¯t form a party now. And if he goes the New Ford Kenya way then he will just end up another ¡®tribal¡¯ candidate in a ¡®tribal¡¯ party.

The final analogy is that of the Titanic and ODM. The common denominator between them being that as happened 100 years ago, Captain Edward Smith was too confident of the largest sea animal ever built to worry about little warnings like being sunk by an iceberg.

In the deck his passengers partied and merried.

Smith¡¯s assistants urged him on saying the boss knows it all...until they started fighting for lifeboats. Mudavadi has been in the ODM ship long enough to see the clause he talked about, which even appears inconsequential as he and Raila were gearing up for competitive nominations.

So there are three things:

Either Mudavadi was looking for an excuse too late and there was nothing to fight over in ODM after all, or he was too lazy and laid-back to see the dark clouds building up. Third, he could be someone¡¯s else project, much like Uhuru was in 2002, but more disguised because of an exaggerated sense that he is the angelic neutral candidate that could undercut Raila, Ruto, Uhuru and Saitoti all at the same time!

I wish you knew how many times he has cancelled release of his ¡®comprehensive statement¡¯, most probably because he too isn¡¯t convinced it is earthshaking or the right decision, and that is why unpredictably, for a man seeking a national constituency, on Tuesday he bought breakfast for Luhya MPs and emerged unconvincing he and AFC Leopards are the only ones uniting the Abaluhya.

Meanwhile as he devalues himself as an asset, Mr Kenneth Marende¡¯s star I hear is going up! A nail as they say like habit, is driven off the wood by another nail.

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The writer is Managing Editor, Daily Editions, at The Standard.

ktanui@standardmedia.co.ke