Saturday, March 17, 2012

Uhuru, Ruto Future Is In Saitoti’s Hands



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The recent decision by the International Criminal Court to throw out the appeals by the “Hague Four” has led to seismic shifts in Kenya’s political landscape. Now the fate of the two presidential front-runners in the upcoming general elections—Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto— squarely rests with the political goodwill of Professor George Saitoti. As the Minister of Internal Security and the chairman of the Cabinet Sub-committee on ICC and security matters, he is the guarantor of the government’s commitment to the ICC process. Saitoti is the single individual who will decide whether to or not to handover the two to The Hague in case arrest warrants are issued against them.
Under his watch, the Hague duo have comfortably traversed the country making what their political critics call “tribal sentiments” under the guise of “prayer rallies,” which recently prompted Prime Minister Raila Odinga to call for their arrest. Saitoti's personal stance over the duo, even after the PM's call, is to maintain his usual serenity and even beefed up security at the prayer rallies.
Not even his worst critics can question Saitoti's political experience and he blends well with virtually all the communities in the country. Saitoti has never been engaged in any form of tribal hostility and therefore the absence of a tribal tag gives him the brand of a nationalist who can unite Kenyans though many keep on speculating his Maasai and Kiambu origins. Even if the the Kiambu and Maasai roots are true, Saitoti will form the best buffer personality that presents the best force to unite the Rift valley and Central Kenya as each region can own him as their son.
All leading presidential aspirants— Raila, Uhuru and Ruto—at one time served under Saitoti when he was Denial Moi's vice-President for over a decade. Even with the ambiguity in the law that makes it unclear if Ruto and Uhuru can run for the presidency with the ICC baggage, their presidency will lack immunity as is stipulated in the constitution on the Immunity of the President and Impeachment. “Article 143 (4) states: “The immunity of the President under this Article (143) shall not extend to a crime for which the President may be prosecuted under any treaty to which Kenya is party and which prohibits such immunity.”
“Article 145 (1b) states: “A member of the National Assembly, supported by at least a third of all the members, may move a motion for the impeachment of the President— where there are serious reasons for believing that the President has committed a crime under national or international law”.
At some point, the Hague two will finally call it a day in politics and concentrate their efforts in exonerating themselves at the ICC, leaving Saitoti as “the man to beat”. He also has the financial muscle to voluntarily finance aspirants who will vie under his party in almost all the counties without straining his resources – something which will attract a huge number of county big wigs to his side.
In the absence of Uhuru and Ruto, desperate political orphans of the G7 group will be forced by circumstances to join Saitoti's camp, boosting his chances of becoming president. Ruto and Uhurus’ foot soldiers will be motivated to ensure Saitoti clinches the top seat as this will guarantee their masters a safe haven as a fall back plan.
The writer is the Executive Secretary of Integrity Concern International, Kenya Charter. The views expressed here are his own and doesn’t necessarily represent those of the ICI

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