Peep Into Raila Odinga’s Political Game Plan

SATURDAY, 17 MARCH 2012 00:04 BY MWENDA NJOKA

Prime Minister Raila Odinga may be many different things to different people, but there is one thing that Tinga definitely is NOT: a bumbling political fool. If he was, he could not have risen this far in politics (and business) against so many odds.

Raila Amolo Odinga is not given to making wanton political moves just for the sake of it. Indeed, among all the key political players in the country today, Raila is perhaps the most calculating, scheming, shrewd and cunning of them all. You underestimate Tinga at your own political peril. Period.

And in case you still doubt Raila’s political dexterity and ability to turn an apparent misfortune into a political fortune, ask former President Daniel Toroitich arap Moi. The former President will tell you how Raila Odinga single-handedly managed to outsmart the Professor of Politics (Moi’s self-declared and until then well-deserved title) in the run up to the 2002 general elections bringing to a crushing and most humiliating end KANU’s 39 year reign.

Moi’s best-laid plans to be succeeded by Uhuru Kenyatta came tumbling down like a house built on sand when Raila played the perfect Trojan horse in KANU. Raila walked into KANU as a friend and ally early 2002 and when his strategy of taking over the then ruling party failed, he walked out with key luminaries of the Baba na Mama political party.

Within a few months, Raila managed to pull off what countless other Kenyans had been unable to accomplish over many years; bringing down the KANU regime. By the time Raila stormed out of KANU, it was a political shell that for the first time in history lost a general election. The party has never recovered since then.

So when early this week Raila released a statement to the media in which he made what amounted to “uncharacteristic” remarks targeted at the Hague-duo of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, many political pundits were convinced that this was not the real Raila Odinga speaking.

How could Raila—the smart and calculating political player— call for the arrest of Uhuru and Ruto antagonizing further two critical political constituencies—Kikuyu and Kalenjin—at a time when he should be trying to consolidate the few votes he may still have among these two most populous communities?

Here is why. Those who have followed closely and studied Raila’s political mondus operandi decipher a pattern in his latest political foray that has landed him in the eye of a storm.

Let’s face it; it is most unlikely that Raila has any significant support remaining among the communities where Uhuru and Ruto come from. So if you were in Raila’s political shoes and you know the obvious—that under the prevailing political circumstances, the Kikuyu are unlikely to vote for you and neither is the Kalenjin community, what do you do?

You seek a way of redefining the issues behind the political battle ahead. How do you do this? Knowing that every serious political battle is often won or lost on the basis of how effectively you “demonize” the “other side”, you seek the perfect opportunity for this.

So when some blundering and bumbling political operative comes up with the so-called British Dossier, which purports to nail Raila Odinga as the master puppeteer behind Uhuru and Ruto’s tribulations at ICC, it was the perfect political blessing in disguise for Raila.

The opportune moment had presented itself for Raila to redefine the battle ahead. And this is exactly what Raila did last week. It was for this reason that the underlying message in Raila’s statement was: the next election will (or should) be a battle between 'those Who Uphold the Rule of Law Vs Forces of Impunity'.

No prizes for guessing who fits where in a Raila-defined political matrix. In his statement Raila was categorical that he considered Uhuru and Ruto to represent “forces and beneficiaries of impunity” while, naturally, he considered himself the “true representative” of “those who uphold the rule of law.”

This approach fits snugly well in the political theory of “demonize the other side.” Moreover, contrary to conventional wisdom, I posit that for Raila, there wasn’t much to lose by hitting Uhuru and Ruto where it hurts most. After all, why waste time bolting the stable when the horse bolted out long time ago? The horse (read Kikuyu and Kalenjin votes) fled from Raila’s political stable the day ICC started focusing its spotlight on Uhuru and Ruto.

So by trying to redefine the basis on which the next general elections should be contested upon—Rule of Law Vs Impunity— Raila is positioning himself in alignment with two important constituencies; the international community and the civil society. It’s a big gamble and a bold move. But then again Raila Amolo Odinga is nothing if not a big time political gambler with bold and intrepid moves.

So what’s Raila’s next possible political move? To keep pressing hard on Uhuru and Ruto’s soft underbelly and watch the reactions. There is even likelihood that depending on reactions of powerful forces around President Kibaki, Raila could even walkout of the coalition Government citing “frustration by forces of Impunity” and force an early general election. Thus when Raila came out with blazing guns directed at Uhuru and Ruto, he was simply being vintage Raila Odinga— a smart, scheming and calculating politician who knows the perfect opportunity when he sees one.