Central MPs agonise as leadership vacuum looms

By Stephen Makabila and Job Weru

As Central Kenya leaders troop to Jumuiya Conference Centre, Limuru, on Thursday, the main focus revolves around the un-resolved search for a leader to succeed President Kibaki.

Prof Peter Kagwanja, the President of the African Policy Institute, sums it thus: "The biggest and unresolved debate in Central Kenya today is whether the region has to push one of its own for State House or rally resources and numbers behind another person outside the region who can be sympathetic to Central."

Kagwanja points out that nothing conclusive has so far been reached and time is not on their side in taking a firm political decision.

With the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) having set election date for March 4, 2013, there is urgency to identify a credible leader, amid elusive unity due to new political dynamics created owing to at least four politicians eyeing the presidency from the region.

The gathering of the region’s elite comes after the passing of prominent leaders John Michuki and Njenga Karume, which was seen as the end of an era and the beginning of a new one in the region.

Political invasion

The meeting also comes when there has been increased onslaught by presidential aspirants from other regions Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi who are seeking ODM presidential ticket.

Raila was in Murang’a yesterday to seek support from Central ODM delegates while Mudavadi was in Muranga last Friday and Nyeri last Saturday.

Central Kenya Parliamentary Group Chairman and Mathira legislator, Ephraim Maina, told The Standard yesterday the Limuru meeting was on course.

"The meeting will discuss important issues ranging from post-Kibaki era, social and economic welfare plus the impending ICC cases and their implications politically," said Maina.

A major announcement will be made after the meeting, according to Major (rtd) Stephen Karau, the Chief Executive Officer of the Mt Kenya Foundation (MKF), the lobby group hosting the event.

Chaired by Equity Bank Chairman Peter Munga, MKF brings together business, political and cultural leaders and is emerging as a powerful regional lobby group.

A similar meeting (Limuru I) was convened during the 2010 referendum to rally the region behind the new Constitution. The return to the historic Limuru, where pioneer nationalists formed Kanu in 1960, is hoped to achieve a similar cause.

Some political analysts feel consequences of a divided Central Kenya after Kibaki would make the region lose its grip on nationals politics, while a united front, would enable it remain relevant, and even extend its dominance.

However, United States International University (USIU) Prof Munene Macharia says the region has never been fully united and there are no indications it would be after Kibaki’s exit.

"There has been no time the Mt Kenya region has spoken with one voice and that is not likely to happen soon. What we have been experiencing are incomplete influences with several key players pursuing own interests. Even Kibaki’s control was never absolute," said Macharia, who teaches History and International Relations. Adding to the political uncertainty is the future of Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta due to the charges at the International Criminal Court. Uhuru remains the most popular leader from the region. Michuki was a close ally of Uhuru while Karume was shifting support to Raila after supporting Kibaki in the controversial 2007 elections.

Big opponents

Apart from Uhuru, other key leaders include reformist and Safina Presidential aspirant, Senior Counsel Paul Muite, Gichugu MP and Narc-Kenya presidential aspirant Martha Karua and Assistant Minister Peter Kenneth.

Former Chief of Protocol in the PM’s office Tony Gachoka, says there would be no vacuum if Uhuru agrees to work with Muite.

"Muite is the only person who can demonstrate to the ICC that Uhuru was not a member or involved in Mungiki activities. The two have to realise the region is important thantheir personal egos and agree to work together to fill the expected vacuum," said Gachoka.

Gachoka says though there are other leaders, a working relationship between Uhuru and Muite could provide the region with strong and competent leadership.

However, Macharia rules out the possibility of Uhuru and Muite working together, noting they have never done so.

"Muite is a good lawyer but is of little political value compared to Uhuru. They have never rhymed," added Macharia.

Kagwanja, however, notes Central may not feel some vacuum because the next Kenyan President will most likely be endorsed by Uhuru and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, in case the two fail to contest.

Serious campaign

Karua has been largely independent especially after realising some leaders in the region were fronting Uhuru and denying her a chance to be Kibaki’s natural heir.

Karua who hails from Kirinyaga County has been consistent and was recently rated the most inspiring female politician in Kenya by Infotrak Harris research firm.

Kenneth from Muranga County has said he will soon launch a serious campaign for president and sources say he has imported choppers for the bruising battle.

However, Kagwanja noted both Karua and Kenneth have limited chances of making it to State House because Kenyans may not be ready for another president from the region.