By KWENDO OPANGA
Posted Saturday, March 24 2012 at 18:24
Posted Saturday, March 24 2012 at 18:24
Tourism minister Najib Balala says ana jibu (he has an answer) for Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi.
Ditch the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and, if you do not have a Plan B, come to me and I will give it to you, Mr Balala advises. That’s at the Coast.
Over in Kakamega, Housing minister Soita Shitanda tells Mr Mudavadi that should he be mistreated in ODM – read should he not beat party boss Prime Minister Raila Odinga to the ODM presidential ticket – he will find a new and ready home in his New Ford Kenya.
Then a local daily alleges that Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto are ready to back Mr Mudavadi because, the paper says, it has finally dawned on the two that because of their date with the International Criminal Court, they will not run. Mr Kenyatta, however, denies the reports.
Mr Mudavadi appears to be a man in demand, but why? Mr Balala himself blows hot and cold over the formation of a Coast-based political party and the aspirations of the people of the region.
He was elected on an ODM ticket but fell out with Mr Odinga and is in search of a party.
Disparate entities
New Ford Kenya belongs to the amorphous amalgam of disparate entities called Party of National Unity (PNU), which was cobbled together to provide a vehicle for President Kibaki to take on the juggernaut that was emergent ODM.
Mr Shitanda may be in need of a political compass. In other words, one needs to take the pronouncements of Mr Balala and Mr Shitanda with a generous serving of salt.
In other words, Mr Mudavadi must weigh his every move very carefully indeed. Most seem persuaded he has reached a point of no return and must dump ODM. Is he?
If Mr Mudavadi decamps, he will be labelled a party breaker whose declaration for the ODM presidential ticket was no more than a long and expensive exit strategy.
As I say, if he ditches ODM, he will have played his part in weakening the party ahead of the next General Election.
A new party
Again, as I say, if the deputy prime minister chooses a new party, he ought to remember that his new outfit and ODM may go into the General Election weakened and, therefore, vulnerable, especially if PNU, or some emergent force, were to galvanise support around the country.
It is why the prospect of joining an outfit supported by Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto would appear appealing, but is this support a given?
First, even before the alleged union between Mr Kenyatta, Mr Ruto and Mr Mudavadi happens, the DPM must prepare for another label – a project.
Whoever flaunts that label will not lack for sponsors to point a finger at or just allude. Mr Mudavadi will know that to be dubbed a project hurts.
He was Mr Kenyatta’s right hand man in 2002 when the latter was tagged a (President) Moi project and, therefore, not his own man.
Mr Kenyatta was vilified variously as the man who would enable Mr Moi to succeed himself or perpetuate his rule.
Already Mr Mudavadi has been called a Moi project and a (President) Kibaki project. It is not something he would like to stick, which is why he said he is a project of Kenyans.
The support of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto may guarantee Mr Mudavadi numerical strength, but it may also hand his opponents the propaganda advantage, especially with regard to post-election violence and the plight of the internally displaced people.
However, propaganda, no matter how well constructed and executed, cannot overcome the force of numbers.
The political value and appeal of a Mudavadi/Kenyatta/Ruto alliance lies in the numerical strength it could bring to the ballot boxes in Western, Central Kenya and Rift Valley regions.
It is this that could see Mr Balala, who in 2009 declared Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta the future of Kenya, and Mr Shitanda, whose ally Dr Boni Khalwale has backed Mr Mudavadi, falling into line.Future of Kenya
It may be Mr Mudavadi who needs Mr Shitanda’s support at home and Mr Balala’s at the Coast. Are we looking at a countdown to a Mudavadi versus Odinga showdown?
Are we here saying Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka has actually been dumped by Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto?
How about Prof George Saitoti who, as I said here, has networks built over 24 years waiting to be activated?
Nothing is done yet; alliances are going to shift and shift again before the General Election this or next year.
Kwendo Opanga is a media consultant opanga@diplomateastafrica.com
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